Betting Preview

The upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday, April 13th at 6:40 ET in the Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH presents an interesting betting opportunity. With the moneyline odds set at Phillies +102 and Reds -121, it may seem like a close call. However, a closer look at recent stats and pitching matchups offers a compelling argument for why the Reds hold the best betting value in this game.

Strong Pitching Matchup

Nick Lodolo, the starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, has shown impressive form in his last three starts, boasting a 1.50 ERA. In contrast, Bailey Falter of the Philadelphia Phillies has a 2.61 ERA in the same period. Moreover, Lodolo's recent start against the Phillies resulted in a stellar performance with 7 innings pitched, allowing only 3 hits and no earned runs while striking out 12. Despite the no-decision outcome, Lodolo clearly outperformed Falter, who allowed one earned run over 5 innings pitched during their previous encounter. This pitching advantage significantly increases the Reds' probability of winning.

Better Home Performance

The Cincinnati Reds have performed better at home this season, with a 3-2 home record compared to the Phillies' dismal 1-5 away record. Playing at the Great American Ball Park should give the Reds a boost in confidence and an edge over their struggling opponents.

Head-to-Head Matchups

The Reds have demonstrated a historical advantage against the Phillies at home, with an 18-7 record in their last 25 games at the Great American Ball Park. Though the Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 games against the Reds, their poor away record combined with the Reds' strong home advantage should make this matchup favorable for Cincinnati.

Improving Offensive Performance

While the Reds' overall offensive performance this season has been relatively average, with 4.50 runs per game, their home offensive performance has been stronger, scoring 5.00 runs per game. With the Phillies' road defense allowing 7.00 runs per game, the Reds' offense is poised to capitalize on their opponents' weaknesses.