Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds Analysis - Free Pick
Betting Odds
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In their last game, the Cubs lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-1 after the bullpen came in to surrender six runs and waste a decent performance by starter Kyle Hendricks (5IP, 3H, 1ER). The loss put an end to a four-game win streak for the sizzling Cubs who have gone 11-3 in their 14 matches. They now hit the road where they are 18-12 on the season.
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The Brewers lost a close one to the Philadelphia Phillies 4-3 in a game that they outhit the Phillies eight to four. The Brewers scored three runs on eight hits, and the Phillies scored four runs on four hits and allowed three earned runs. Milwaukee returns from a subpar road trip that saw them lose five of eight games. At Miller Park this season the Brew Crew are 18-11
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Stats wise this season, the Cubs rank tied for 6th in runs scored and 2nd in team ERA and the Brewers rank tied for 14th in runs scored and 6th in team ERA.
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<h2>
Pitching Match-Up<br />
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Chicago: Jose Quintana (6-4 4.20 ERA)<br />
Milwaukee: Junior Guerra (3-4 2.83 ERA)
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In Quintana’s last start he gave up two earned runs on three hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-5 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Cubs have won his last two starts where he has totaled 11 2/3 innings and has given up two earned runs. Two of Quintana’s better starts this season have come against the Brewers where he has not given up any earned runs in 13 innings of work in two Chicago wins. He has pitched well against the Brewers in his career, as in six starts against them he is 4-1 with an ERA of only 0.63.
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In Guerra’s last start he gave up three earned runs on seven hits in six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cleveland Indians. The Brewers had won his previous two starts where he totaled 12 innings and gave up two earned runs. Guerra had a good start in his lone outing facing the Cubs this season going six strong innings and giving up one earned run on only three hits, but the lineup did not help in out in a 3-0 Milwaukee loss. In seven career appearances, including four starts, against the Cubs Guerra is 1-1 with an ERA of 1.80.
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/938501">Cubs vs. Brewers MLB Match-Up</a></span>
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<h2>
Betting Angles<br />
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The Cubs are 40-19 in their last 59 games against the Brewers.
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The Cubs are 8-2 in their last ten road games against the Brewers.
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In the last 21 games between these teams, the Under record is 16-5.
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In the last 51 games between these teams in Milwaukee, the Under record is 33-16-2.
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<h2>
Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records<br />
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Chicago Cubs: 37-25 SU / O/U 25-35 / Run Line W/L 33-29<br />
Milwaukee Brewers: 39-26 SU / O/U 25-38 / Run Line W/L 38-27
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<h2>
Key Betting Trends<br />
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CHI is 8-2 in their last ten games
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CHI is 4-0 in their previous four road games
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CHI has an Under record of 4-0 in their last four games
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MIL is 16-5 in their last 21 home games
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MIL is 22-8 in their previous 30 games following a loss
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MIL has an Under record of 5-2 in their last seven games
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<h2>
Key Player Injuries<br />
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CUBS<br />
[P] 04/21/2018 - Eddie Butler 10-day DL (04/20) ( Groin )<br />
[P] 03/26/2018 - Drew Smyly 60-day DL (02/16) ( Elbow )<br />
[P] 05/26/2018 - Yu Darvish 10-day DL (05/23) ( Triceps )<br />
[P] 05/30/2018 - Carl Edwards Jr. 10-day DL (05/30) ( Shoulder )
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BREWERS<br />
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jimmy Nelson 60-day DL (03/26) ( Shoulder )<br />
[1B] 04/25/2018 - Eric Thames 10-day DL (04/25) ( Thumb )<br />
[P] 05/09/2018 - Wade Miley 60-day DL (05/09) ( Oblique )<br />
[SS] 05/09/2018 - Nick Franklin 10-day DL (05/09) ( Quad )<br />
[3B] 05/30/2018 - Tyler Saladino 10-day DL (05/30) ( Ankle )<br />
[C] 06/01/2018 - Stephen Vogt is out for season ( Shoulder )<br />
[P] 06/01/2018 - Zach Davies 10-day DL (06/01) ( Rotator Cuff )
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Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction 6/11/18
The total is the way to go here. The Cubs starter Jose Quintana struggled in April with a 5.74 ERA, and incidentally, his only two good outings in April came against the Brewers pitching 13 scoreless innings and getting the “W” in both starts. Quintana rebounded in May with a 3.09 ERA in six starts, and he comes into this match on top of his game allowing six earned runs in his last four starts and brings with him a 2.62 road ERA.
Junior Guerra comes into this game in excellent form recording a quality start in his last three and has held his opponent to three or fewer runs in five straight starts. He has a solid history against the Cubs with three QS in four starts and has kept the team to three or fewer runs in each start. Guerra’s back numbers are also strong against tonight’s projected Cubs lineup holding them to a brilliant .159 batting average over 79 plate appearances. These two pitchers were the starters on April 28th that Chicago came away as the victor in a 3-0 score. I expect another low scoring affair that should easily fall below the posted total line.