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After splitting the first two games of this AL East series, the Blue Jays and Red Sox meet for a rubber match Thursday night down at the Jays' temporary home in Dunedin. Former Met Steven Matz hits the hill for Toronto here against former Phillie Nick Pivetta for Boston. Here's how we're handicapping this game for our <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/free-mlb-picks&quot; title="Free Daily Baseball Picks">free MLB pick</a>.
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MLB Betting Odds<br />
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Thursday's <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds&quot; title="Compare MLB Lines From Multiple Sportsbooks">baseball betting odds</a> opened Toronto and Matz at around -135 over Boston and Pivetta, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then dipped the Jays to -130.
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Red Sox-Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview<br />
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Toronto took the opener of this series Tuesday night 8-0 but Boston bounced back to win Wednesday's game 7-3. The Blue Jays won as -125 favorites Tuesday with Hyun-jin Ryu, while the Red Sox cashed in as +105 underdogs Wednesday. With Wednesday's win, Boston is 4-2 over its last six games.
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Even with Wednesday's loss, Toronto is 6-2 over its last eight games.
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At 26-18 overall, the Red Sox are playing well ahead of pace to top their season wins over/under of 80.5. At 23-18 overall, the Blue Jays are also ahead of pace to beat their wins O/U of 86.5. These teams have split four games so far this season. Last year these teams split ten meetings.
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Thursday's Pitching Match-Up<br />
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Lefty<a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/69870&quot; title="Steven Matz Pitching Logs"> Matz </a>is 3/8 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last five. Last Friday, he held Philadelphia scoreless on four hits through five innings, with nine strikeouts, although Toronto lost that game 5-1. But that was a considerable improvement over his previous four outings, in which he got clipped for 17 runs and 28 hits, including five home runs, though only 18 2/3 innings of work.
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On the season, the Blue Jays are 5-3 with Matz, and that sounds about right. In his only previous career start against Boston, which came last year while still with the Mets, Matz gave up three runs and eight hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 New York loss.
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<a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/100337&quot; title="Nick Pivetta Pitching Logs">Pivetta</a> is also 3/8 on quality starts this season but two for his last two. Last Friday, he held the Angels to two runs and four hits through six innings of a 4-3 Sox win, and five days before that, he held Baltimore to two runs through six frames of a 4-3 Boston victory.
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The Red Sox are 7-1 with Pivetta this year, and he deserves a good part of the credit for that. This start will be Pivetta's first against Toronto since 2018 when he was with the Phillies, and that's already a long time ago.
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Splits With the Sticks<br />
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Boston is batting .276 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .332 team OBP and a .440 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those cause us to rank this lineup among the top half-dozen or so in Baseball in this split. Toronto is batting .251/.317/.427 against right-handed pitching this season.
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<p><section></p>
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1356596">Red Sox vs. Jays 5/20/21 Matchup Stats</a></span>
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<h2>
The Bullpens<br />
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The Boston bullpen owns a 3.85 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.75 K/BB ratio. The Toronto pen owns a 3.06 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 2.52 K/BB ratio. Numbers like that cause us to rank this unit among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.
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MLB Betting Trends<br />
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Boston is 13-6 on the road this season.
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Boston is 9-5 against left-handed starters this season.
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Boston is 9-2 as an underdog this season.
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Toronto is 10-6 at TD Ballpark this season.
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Toronto is 18-15 against right-handed starters this season.
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Totals Report<br />
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Unders are 23-20 in Red Sox games this season.
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Unders are 22-18 in Blue Jays games this season.
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Overs are a combined 9-6 with Matz and Pivetta this season.
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Overs are 8-7 in games played at TD Ballpark this season.
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