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National League playoff hopefuls meet when the Braves and Brewers open a three-game weekend series in Milwaukee Friday night. Adrian Houser, who's hit two more home runs this season than Christian Yelich, gets the start for the Brew Crew here against veteran lefty Drew Smyly for Atlanta.
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Here's how we break this one down, with our <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/free-mlb-picks&quot; title="Free MLB Predictions">free baseball betting pick</a> at the end.
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MLB Betting Odds<br />
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Friday's <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds&quot; title="Compare MLB Betting Odds">baseball betting odds</a> actually opened Atlanta and Smyly as -110 favorites over Milwaukee and Houser, with an over/under eight runs. Early betting action then steamed the Brewers into -120 chalk and bumped that total to 8.5.
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Braves-Brewers MLB Betting Preview<br />
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Atlanta just got swept three games at home by Toronto by scores of 5-3 Tuesday, 4-1 Wednesday, and 8-4 Thursday. The Braves actually led the Blue Jays Thursday 4-2 through seven innings, only to have the bullpen cough up the game from there. However, prior to that, Atlanta took a series from Philadelphia, and just before that, the Braves swept three games from Washington. So Atlanta is 5-4 over its last nine games. At 17-20 overall, the Braves need to kick things in gear if they're going to reach their wins over/under of 91.5 for this season. Milwaukee, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to rival St. Louis, losing Thursday's series rubber match 2-0. The Brewers only allowed nine runs in the series to the Cardinals but only scored five. At the moment, Milwaukee is basically a good-arms, no-hit type of outfit. Last weekend the Brewers won the final two games of a series against Miami, but that just broke a five-game losing skid. At 20-18 overall, though, the Brew Crew still floats just above .500 while they play against a wins O/U of 82.5. This series is the first meeting between these two teams since 2019 when they split six games.
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Friday's Pitching Match-Up<br />
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<a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/72537&quot; title="Adrian Houser Pitching Logs">Houser</a> is only 2/7 on quality starts this season, but that's partly due to a short leash. And he's been pretty good as of late. Last Saturday, he held Miami to two runs on five hits through six innings, with zero walks and ten strikeouts, in a 6-2 Milwaukee win. And over his last three starts, he's allowed nine runs – seven earned – and 14 hits through 17 2/3 innings. The Brewers are 4-3 with Houser this year, with the overs playing 4-3. This will be Houser's first-ever start against Atlanta. Southpaw <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/40270&quot; title="Drew Smily Pitching Logs">Smyly</a> is 2/5 on quality starts this season. He's 2/2 against Washington, 0/3 against anybody else. Last Thursday, he held the Nationals to one unearned run and four hits through six frames of a 3-2 Braves victory. But over his three starts previous to that, he got bopped for 15 ER and eight home runs through 13 innings. Atlanta is 1-4 with Smyly this year, with the overs playing 4-1. Smyly's bounced around the Bigs for ten years now, but this will be his first-ever start against Milwaukee.
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Splits With the Sticks<br />
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Atlanta is batting .238 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .327 team OBP and a .436 team slugging percentage. The Braves also might be without big stick Ronald Acuna (.302, 12 HR this season), who left Thursday's game with an ankle injury. Milwaukee is batting .245/.339/.417 vs. left-handed pitching this season. But this lineup is still operating without former NL MVP Christian Yelich (back). However, pitcher Houser has bonked two homers this season, so maybe he can help himself out.
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1356281">ATL/MIL 5/14/21 Matchup Stats</a></span>
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The Bullpens<br />
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After blowing Thursday's game, the Braves bullpen now owns a 4.84 ERA this season, along with a 1.47 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.00 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.
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MLB Betting Trends<br />
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Milwaukee is only 9-10 at home this season.
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Milwaukee is 2-4 against LH starters this season.
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Atlanta is 4-3 as an underdog this season.
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Totals Report<br />
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Overs are 20-16 in Braves games this season.
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Unders are 19-16 in Brewers games this season.
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Overs are 9-7 in Brewers' home games this season.
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