Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 2 Pick and Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 2 Pick and Analysis

Darin Zank
Date: October 17, 8:00 pm
Location: Citizens Bank Park

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Az +140 / Phil -160
Total: 7.5

After taking the opener of this best-of-seven National League championship series, the defending league champion Phillies shoot for the 2-0 lead Tuesday night.

Aaron Nola, the longest-serving Phillie on the team, hits the hill for Philly here while Merritt Kelly will try to get Arizona on the board.

Philadelphia began this NLCS as a -140 favorite to win it, with the D’Backs getting +120. Heading into Game 2, the Phillies are now chalked at -400, with Arizona catching +300.

NLCS Betting Odds

Tuesday’s playoff baseball betting market opened Philadelphia at around -155 for Game 2, with an over/under of eight runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 2 Betting Preview

Philadelphia grabbed the opener of this NLCS Monday night 5-3. The Phillies took the lead for good on a Schwarber lead-off homer in the bottom of the first inning, later led 5-0, let Arizona get within 5-3 late but held on from there.

Philadelphia won Game 1 as a -155 favorite on the dime line and covered against the run line at +130. Also, Game 1 just sneaked over a total of 7.5.

With Monday’s victory, the Phillies are now 6-1 this postseason.

With Monday’s loss, the Diamondbacks are 5-1 this postseason.

Philadelphia beat the D’Backs by six games in the regular-season standings and took the season series from Arizona four games to three.

NLCS Game 2 Pitching Match-Up

Nola is making his third start of this postseason. First, in the wild-card round against Miami, he threw seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball in a 7-1 Philadelphia victory. Then in the NLDS against that great Atlanta lineup, he allowed just two runs and six hits through 5 1/3, with one walk and nine whiffs, in a 10-2 Phillies win.

Philadelphia is 21-13 with Nola this season and 10-1 his last 11 times out.

In his one start this season against Arizona, Nola allowed four runs and six hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 5-4 Philly victory.

Kelly is making his second start of this postseason. Ten days ago in the NLDS against that great Los Angeles lineup, he tossed 6 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball in an 11-2 Diamondbacks triumph. And he finished the regular season in good form, allowing only four runs and 12 hits over his last three outings, covering 18 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 17-14 with Kelly this season but 20-11 would probably be closer to the truth, based on his game-by-performances.

In his only start this season against Philadelphia, Kelly allowed three runs and three hits through six innings of a 4-3 D’Backs defeat.

Splits With the Sticks

Arizona batted .250 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .323 team OBP and a .414 team slugging percentage.

Philadelphia slashed .256/.327/.432 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Phillies' pen posted a 3.58 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.72 K/BB ratio.

The Diamondbacks' pen put up a 4.22 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Arizona played 41-40 on the road this season and 56-57 against right-handed starters.

Philadelphia played 49-32 at home and 60-51 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

The Under is 84-69 in Diamondbacks games this season.

The Unders played 76-73 in Phillies games.

The Unders played 37-35 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Free NLCS Pick

We’re gonna give Kelly the short edge in the pitching match-up here, in part because of the better recent track record vs. these opponents. From there, we give Philadelphia short edges with both the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. But what does that all add up to? Not -155. We played Arizona for our Game 1 pick because we thought that’s where the betting value resided, and we’re thinking the same thing for Game 2.

Free Pick: Take the D Backs +140
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