Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Game 7 Odds & Predictions
Just as in the American League, the National League championship series comes down to one game, Tuesday night in Philadelphia.
The defending NL champion Phillies led this best-of-seven affair 2-0 and 3-2. But Arizona forced a Game 7 by winning Game 6 Monday night.
Lefty Ranger Suarez gets the call for Philadelphia here against rookie righty Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. But all it's all-hands-on-deck for both teams.
NLCS Betting Odds
Tuesday's playoff baseball betting market opened Philadelphia at around -155 for Game 7, with an over/under of 8.5. Early betting action then goosed the Phillies 20 cents to -175.
NLCS Game 7 Betting Preview
Arizona evened this NLCS up at three games apiece with a 5-1 Game 6 victory Monday night. The Diamondbacks took the lead for good with three runs in the second inning off Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola while Merrill Kelly and four relievers limited the Phillies to six hits.
Arizona won Monday as a +165 post-time underdog and the game played under a total of eight runs.
The Phillies played six games better than the Diamondbacks during the regular season and took the season series from Arizona four games to three.
Game 7 Pitching Match-Up
This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 3 of this NLCS, a 2-1 Arizona win last Thursday.
Suarez is making his fourth start of this postseason. First, he held that super Atlanta line-up to just one run and four hits through 8 2/3 innings in a pair of Philadelphia victories. Then last Thursday he tossed 5 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball, although the Phillies lost that game in the bottom of the ninth.
Philadelphia played 13-9 with Suarez during the regular season and they're 2-1 with him this postseason.
Over three starts this season against the Diamondbacks, two good and one bad, Suarez allowed five runs and 12 hits through 17 1/3 innings, with four walks against 19 strikeouts. Philadelphia won two of those three games.
Pfaadt is also making his fourth start of this postseason. First, he held the Brewers and Dodgers to three runs and nine hits through seven innings in a pair of Arizona wins. Then last Thursday he tossed 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball, with zero walks against nine whiffs, in another Diamondbacks triumph.
Arizona only played 8-10 with Pfaadt during the regular season but it's 3-0 with him this postseason.
Splits With the Sticks
Arizona batted .251 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .317 team OBP and a .394 team slugging percentage.
Philadelphia slashed .256/.327/.432 against right-handed pitching.
The Phillies pen posted a 3.58 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.72 K/BB ratio.
The Diamondbacks pen put up a 4.22 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Arizona played 41-40 on the road this season and 28-21 against left-handed starters.
Philadelphia played 49-32 at home and 60-51 against right-handed starters.
The unders played 84-69 in Diamondbacks games this season.
The unders played 76-73 in Phillies games.
The unders played 37-35 at Citizens Bank Park this season.
Game 7 Pick: Arizona at Philadlphia
We’re giving Philadelphia our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks - we expect more than six hits - and in the bullpen comparison. So we like Philly to take this Game 7 for the pennant. But we’re not too high on that price. So we’ll take a chance and play the Phillies against the run line at a price of +115.