Arizona Diamondbacks at LA Dodgers Game Preview & Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks at LA Dodgers Game Preview & Pick

Cliff Knox
Date: October 7, 9:20 pm
Location: Dodger Stadium

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Ariz +175/LAD -200
Runline: ARI +1.5 -115/LAD -1.5 +105
Total: 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally end their week-long wait to chase another pennant as they welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks for the opening game of the National League divisional-round series in Los Angeles on Saturday night.

Clay Kershaw is set to take the mound for the Dodgers against Arizona's Merrill Kelly.

MLB Betting Odds

The initial odds favored the Dodgers at -195 against Arizona, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action moved the line to -200. For those interested, LA can be found at around +105, offering a run and a half on the run line.

Diamondbacks-Dodgers Betting Preview

Arizona swept Milwaukee in a two-game NL wild-card series, capping it with a 5-2 win on Wednesday night. They secured a surprising victory in the series opener as +150 underdogs against Corbin Burnes, followed by another win at +130 odds against Freddy Peralta in Game 2.

While the Diamondbacks finished the regular season at 84-78, their strong September performance propelled them into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers posted a remarkable 100-62 record during the regular season, securing the NL West title. With six days of rest leading up to Saturday's game, they should be well-prepared for the postseason challenge.

During the regular season, the Dodgers had a comfortable 16-game lead over the Diamondbacks and won the season series eight games to five.

Game 1 Pitching Match-Up

Clayton Kershaw enters this postseason without a quality start in his last eight outings, primarily due to pitch count restrictions. In his latest appearance, he held San Francisco to two runs and five hits over 5 1/3 innings in a 2-1 loss. Over his last three starts, Kershaw conceded only two runs and nine hits across 14 1/3 innings with an impressive 14 strikeouts.

With Kershaw on the mound, the Dodgers boasted a 17-6 record this season, including an 8-2 performance in his last ten starts.

Against Arizona this season, Kershaw had three starts, allowing six runs and 14 hits over 17 innings, with the Dodgers winning two of those games.

As for Merrill Kelly, he had a solid finish to the regular season with quality starts in two of his last three appearances. In his latest outing against Houston, he conceded just one run and five hits over seven innings, although the Diamondbacks lost 1-0. Over his last three starts, Kelly allowed only four runs and 12 hits in 18 2/3 innings.

Arizona had a 16-15 record with Kelly on the mound this year, despite a 1-3 record in his last four outings. However, those losses were not entirely his fault.

When facing the Dodgers this season, Kelly struggled, giving up nine earned runs and 24 hits across 16 2/3 innings.

Splits With the Sticks

Arizona hit .251 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .317 team on-base percentage and a .394 team slugging percentage. In contrast, the Los Angeles Dodgers posted a .262/.343/.456 slash line against right-handed pitchers.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers' bullpen maintained a strong 3.42 ERA this season, boasting a league-best 1.17 WHIP and a solid 3.07 K/BB ratio. On the other hand, the D’Backs bullpen had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

On the road, Arizona had a 41-40 record this season, with a 28-21 record against left-handed starters. Los Angeles performed well at home, finishing 53-28, and excelled against right-handed starters with a 74-39 record.

Totals Report

During the regular season, the under prevailed in 84 of Arizona's 162 games. For the Dodgers, the over hit in 90 of their 154 games. At Dodger Stadium, the over was 39-38 this season.

Regarding the combined performance of Kershaw and Kelly this season, the over was 31-28.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Divisonal Playoff Round

This pitching matchup is a rematch of a game played six weeks ago, resulting in a 9-1 Los Angeles victory. In that game, the Dodgers jumped on Kelly early, scoring three runs in the first inning. Considering LA's offensive prowess and the advantages in the bullpen, they are the favorites. However, the price is somewhat high. To mitigate the risk, we'll take the Dodgers at a better value on the run line.

Free Pick: Take the Dodgers -1.5 +105
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