Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees World Series Game 5 Betting Analysis & Free Pick | October 30, 2024
Betting Odds
Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) at New York Yankees (94-68)
Date: Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Time: 8:08 pm ET
Game Overview
The New York Yankees avoided a sweep in this World Series with a big Game 4 victory on Tuesday night. The Yankees look to keep their hopes alive as they take on the Dodgers in Game 5 Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium.
After dropping the first three games of the Series, the Yankees finally found some offense, rallying from an early deficit to score an 11-4 win. New York’s bats came alive with a grand slam from Anthony Volpe in the third inning, followed by a big five-run eighth inning to seal the game.
Game 5 is a rematch of Game 1 with Gerrit Cole on the mound for New York against Jack Flaherty for Los Angeles.
World Series Betting Odds
The Game 5 betting market opened with the Yankees at -140 and the O/U at eight runs. Early action on New York nudged the line up to -150, while the total moved to 8.5.
Game 5 Betting Preview
New York extended its season with a commanding win in Game 4, covering the run line as favorites and pushing the game over 8.5 runs. Freddie Freeman homered in the first inning for LA, but the Yankees stormed back, highlighted by a Volpe grand slam and a clinching three-run shot by Gleyber Torres in the eighth. Tuesday’s game went over as the Yankees covered the spread at +135 on the run line.
New York aims to make history as the first team to rally from a 0-3 deficit to win a World Series.
Game 5 Pitching Match-Up
This Game 5 pitching matchup mirrors Game 1, where the Dodgers won 6-3 in extra innings.
Cole, New York’s ace, is 2-for-4 on quality starts this postseason, allowing seven earned runs through 22 1/3 innings with 16 strikeouts. In Game 1, he held the Dodgers to one run over six innings. New York went 10-7 with Cole during the regular season and is 3-1 with him in these playoffs.
Flaherty has been less consistent, posting one quality start in four postseason appearances and allowing 14 runs over 20 2/3 innings. Flaherty’s Game 1 outing against New York was solid, giving up two runs across 5 1/3 innings. The Dodgers went 7-3 with him in the regular season and are 2-2 with him in the playoffs.
Offensive Splits
Both lineups rank in the top four against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers slashed .253/.334/.442 against right-handers, while the Yankees slashed .253/.332/.445.
The Bullpens
The Yankees bullpen posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 2.62 K/BB ratio, while the Dodgers’ bullpen was even stronger, with a 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 2.69 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
New York went 44-37 at home and held the best mark against right-handed starters, going 73-45. Los Angeles performed well on the road (46-35) and went 62-47 against righties.
Totals Report
- Overs played 86-69 in Yankees games this season.
- Overs played 89-68 in Dodgers games.
- Overs are a combined 15-7 in Yankees and Dodgers postseason games.
- Overs played 45-33 at Yankee Stadium this season.
Prop Board
LA’s Max Muncy, slugging .509 vs. right-handers, is listed at +130 for 2+ total bases and +300 to homer. New York’s Juan Soto, with a .578 slugging percentage against righties, is at +115 for 2+ total bases and +300 to homer.
Free World Series Game 5 Pick
Cole has the pitching edge, but the Dodgers have the bullpen advantage. With the line leaning heavily toward New York, we see value in the Dodgers’ underdog price at +125, as the game likely should be closer to a pick ‘em.