NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Though Philly has the psychological edge in this contest, we can’t help but focus on the fact the public is all over a dog. This is a rarity and often spells concern as the favorite, is usually a favorite for a reason. The Giants have done well in this role and home field advantage is a huge part of this rivalry series as both teams bank on the energy of home field to pick up wins. The Eagles have compiled some commendable victories and this is the narrative likely driving the action for many players in this situation. However, MetLife Stadium is a very difficult place to play and given the fact the Eagles struggle on the road this market says stay off Philly. If anything these precepts compel us to spot the home points with Big Blue and fade the public altogether. Look for this contest to be a game of inches as this will likely be a low scoring affair. The Giants offense is not this team’s bread and butter and the only way they can orchestrate the win is if they win on their terms.

This is a game between 2 bad teams that have each won only 3 games. The Rams can’t score and the Jets once solid defense has had issues. Without a top wideout or marquee QB to worry about, I see the New York defense responding in a big way this week. If they can contain Gurley, they will put the game in Keenum’s hands. Los Angeles has lost 4 straight games in part due to Keenum’s TO issues. Forte still has a lot left and I expect him to get 25+ touches in this contest and for Marshall and/or Enunwa to have a big game. This will be the Rams 3rd cross country trip of the year and after a 3-0 start, they are fading fast.

As we highlighted in the Philadelphia-New York game, it is rare to see the public all over a dog especially a dog that is going in to a hostile environment against a football team that is undefeated on their own turf. Minnesota’s two losses have compelled many to lose faith in just two weeks. This is a football team that took down Carolina, Green Bay and Houston through sound offense and proficient defense. Detroit has pulled off many wins with spitwad and glue. Minnesota is at another echelon and the points given are not by any means a gift or a charity case. The Vikings have one of the most balanced teams on both sides of the football in the league. Do not be fooled by the recent skid, this is a young team and for the most part young teams go through ebbs and flows like Minnesota. The Vikings have the potential to do more than just repeat as NFC North Champs, they have the capability to perhaps be playing for games of a much larger scale. Look for Detroit to be outclassed in this one.

Jacksonville is playing out the string during a very disappointing season. It could be over for the GM David Caldwell/HC Gus Bradley regime after 4 seasons and the players know it. They have stayed in a lot of games but just can’t seem to win any. Denver still has the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders on their schedule and can’t allow a letdown in this one. I expect Siemian to outplay Bortles and for the Broncos defense to make up for their 4th quarter/OT slide last week.

The Bucs have had the recent edge in this NFC South rivalry, but Atlanta should be able to get a leg up on Tampa in this season’s division race with a win both SU and ATS behind a relentless offensive attack that knows how to put up points in bunches.

Revenge could also be a factor following the Falcons’ 31-24 loss to Tampa Bay at home on opening day as 2.5-point favorites. You might want to parlay Atlanta -3 with the OVER 51.5 points in what should be another entertaining game.

The big question in this matchup is which Minnesota team shows up on Monday night in Chicago. The Vikings may not be as good as everyone painted them out to be following that 5-0 start, but they are not nearly as bad as they looked in Philadelphia last week.

The one thing I do know is that the Bears are a very bad team, so that makes this week’s Monday night pick rather easy with Minnesota covering the 5 points on the road.

Dallas has definitely been the more consistent of the two teams, especially on offense behind a strong running game. However, the Eagles bring quite a bit of momentum into this game following last week’s upset over Minnesota. This is the kind of matchup where that extra half point on the current spread could make all the difference in the world.

I have been burnt by Philadelphia on the road this season, but I am going to bite on that attractive 4.5-point spread in what I see as a three point game either way.

I expect this game to be a track meet from the get go. Ryan and Rodgers should both have big contests against defenses dealing with injuries or youth in their secondaries. The fact the Falcons can also run the ball means the Packers have to worry about the run and pass. Six of Atlanta’s 7 games this season have reached 50 points while 5 have hit 55. While GB has only played in 2 contests that have eclipsed 49 points, they haven’t played many elite offenses. I expect this game to go over the number as both offenses feast on defenses not equipped to deal with them.

It is enticing to opt in on Buffalo outright here by virtue of the fact they have already beaten this team once this season and now get them at home with a tremendous purse on the table if they were to win. When we see the public smother the Patriots in both Money Line and Against The Spread markets, it signals us to fade that opinion right away as this is likely the result of last week’s impressive victory combined with the prestige that goes along with the Patriot crest. Buffalo is a talented football team and their four game winning streak shows how relevant and capable this outfit truly is. Had Buffalo won on the road at Miami, this game would have been for first place and perhaps the evaluation and assessment of this contest would have gone in a different direction as well. Nevertheless, the combination of the Dolphin victory and the Steeler defeat has driven the price in this market. The Patriots have had trouble in Orchard Park previously even when Tom Brady was on the field and in his prime. Points with Buffalo is a tremendous value play as an upset may be in the works yet again.

Both of these teams are 4-3 and contending for a division title. Unfortunately for the Lions, they have to deal with Minnesota and Green Bay while Houston’s route to a title is considerably easier. The Texans are 4-0 SU at home this year and I think they and Osweiler can overcome a difficult performance from Monday night. The Lions have always been a much better home team and with so many defensive stars injured, I just don’t see them keeping up with an offense that has a lot of talent and plays so much better at home.

The Jets are the tempting play in this market be that they are the team with the “hotter hand” of the two. We will have no part in playing on a team that simply cannot win but this does not mean there is no equity in playing on this team with points. Case and point, the Browns are 2-5 ATS this season yet they have not won one game. The Jets are not a team that is good enough to be spotting road points to anyone, even if that team is winless. The market seems to invite takers to have a piece of Gang Green action and steer players away from the Browns who require a bit more juice with the points. The safer bet is actually to take the juice as this market is taking a stance on this very fixture. Contrarily in Money Line markets, no one wants a piece of the Jets with the juice then and there, which says to us the Jets are obviously a team that have little faith from the public overall. Can anyone fault that position? The best bet here is the Browns with the points.

This is a big game for both clubs as the Raiders are tied for the division lead and the Buccaneers are only a game behind the Falcons. Tampa Bay’s defense has been up and down this year and I think they will have trouble defending the big-play offense of Oakland. Winston has been prone to big mistakes in 2016 and while he handled the 49ers pretty handily, he must now deal with the better team by the bay. The Raiders have shown themselves to be road warriors this season and a 2nd-consecutive game in Florida means no long trips home in between. I see Carr outplaying Winston in this game and giving the Raiders another big road win.

Both of these teams have some solid talent on the offensive side of the ball, but neither one has been able to move the ball down the field and score points on a consistent basis. Things could open up this week in a head-to-head matchup although the recent trends on the total line in this division clash point to a low scoring affair.

I would probably lean towards Tennessee at home, but I also think that both teams will have some level of success against the opposing team’s defense to the point where the total goes OVER the current 44-point line on Thursday night.

The first inclination I had for this matchup was a low-scoring grinder that still stayed UNDER an already low 40.5-point total line, but I decided to go with Denver’s long-standing success playing at home going up against Houston long-running inability to win on the road.

As my “best bet” pick for Monday night, I am going to lay the touchdown spread and take the Broncos to win this game by more than seven points.

The first inclination I had for this matchup was a low-scoring grinder that still stayed UNDER an already low 40.5-point total line, but I decided to go with Denver’s long-standing success playing at home going up against Houston long-running inability to win on the road.

As my “best bet” pick for Monday night, I am going to lay the touchdown spread and take the Broncos to win this game by more than seven points.

Both teams are relying heavily on their defense to win games this year and while Seattle has been solid since Week 1, the Cardinals’ defense has picked up the pace over the past few weeks.

The past trends in this division tilt tend to favor a higher scoring game than expected when they meet in the desert, but I do not think that will be the case on Sunday night. The total line in this game is already set pretty low at 43.5 points, but I still think that the final score stays UNDER this number.

This is a bad week for the Steelers to have to face the Patriots. The absence of Big Ben will limit the offense and the defense is reeling after another blow-out loss on the road. New England is rolling and appears to be one of the top 2-3 teams in the league (again). NE is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups with Pittsburgh and I expect this game to hold true to form. With the line only a converted TD, I have no problem backing the visitor in this one.

The Vikings are 5-0, the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The Eagles have dropped 2 straight after an impressive 3-0 start. Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer is a defensive veteran who will have watched film of Philadelphia’s last 2 games and should be able to establish a game plan to make Wentz uncomfortable. Both teams have had success on kick returns but Vikings PR Marcus Sherels (2 TDs) and KR Cordarrelle Patterson are especially dangerous. With the Vikings ascending and the Eagles descending, I feel comfortable laying less than a FG in this one.

The Jets enter in the perfect position. The Jets’ stock has plummeted and now they may be the laughing stock of all the league entering this contest. The numbers reflect this narrative and much of this reaction is predicated on the outcome of Monday Night’s contest. When most of the country watches such a beat down, an overreaction is likely to occur in the following week to lay a team like the Jets. Let us highlight the fact, the Jets lost to three playoff teams in a row, a list that includes, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona. Baltimore has not played any team comparable to this caliber yet. Now they are tasked with going back to MetLife Stadium yet again and hoping to foster a different result than the one sustained on Sunday…the outlook of which looks grim. In Over/Under markets, the heavy steam on the Under prompts us to go the other way with the over as it is feasible Gang Green and the Birds both get their offenses going in a potential shootout. Anything can happen but the pick-em market quantifies this preposition. If the game is a virtual-toss up from market perspective the move is to certainly play on the time with a perceived home field advantage as opposed to a road dog that has documented struggles. Jets is the call.

The Giants at -2.5 are priced at -125. At -3 they are evens. It is as if the books are inviting money to come in on the Rams which tells us right away the Rams could be a potential trap bet. The Giants recently shook off a nasty three-game skid and this is a team with many offensive weapons at their disposal. Eli Manning has thrown for over 4,000 yards on many occasions and we all know what Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham, Jr can do. The question is whether the Rams can handle any offense that comes at them at this point thus why the Giants at -2.5 require substantial juice, it is almost as if the books are saying the Giants are going to win this one and they are extraordinarily confident as so. Normally books are very sharp when it comes to high-profile contests of this caliber be that the audience is international and all will see this game unfold. Sure, the Rams may have some weapons of their own but the Giants at the end of the day are dealing with a five-hour time difference to contend with as opposed to the Rams who are traveling nearly 10 hours with an eight-hour overlay. Giants will win this one handily.