NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

It is enticing to opt in on Buffalo outright here by virtue of the fact they have already beaten this team once this season and now get them at home with a tremendous purse on the table if they were to win. When we see the public smother the Patriots in both Money Line and Against The Spread markets, it signals us to fade that opinion right away as this is likely the result of last week’s impressive victory combined with the prestige that goes along with the Patriot crest. Buffalo is a talented football team and their four game winning streak shows how relevant and capable this outfit truly is. Had Buffalo won on the road at Miami, this game would have been for first place and perhaps the evaluation and assessment of this contest would have gone in a different direction as well. Nevertheless, the combination of the Dolphin victory and the Steeler defeat has driven the price in this market. The Patriots have had trouble in Orchard Park previously even when Tom Brady was on the field and in his prime. Points with Buffalo is a tremendous value play as an upset may be in the works yet again.

Both of these teams are 4-3 and contending for a division title. Unfortunately for the Lions, they have to deal with Minnesota and Green Bay while Houston’s route to a title is considerably easier. The Texans are 4-0 SU at home this year and I think they and Osweiler can overcome a difficult performance from Monday night. The Lions have always been a much better home team and with so many defensive stars injured, I just don’t see them keeping up with an offense that has a lot of talent and plays so much better at home.

The Jets are the tempting play in this market be that they are the team with the “hotter hand” of the two. We will have no part in playing on a team that simply cannot win but this does not mean there is no equity in playing on this team with points. Case and point, the Browns are 2-5 ATS this season yet they have not won one game. The Jets are not a team that is good enough to be spotting road points to anyone, even if that team is winless. The market seems to invite takers to have a piece of Gang Green action and steer players away from the Browns who require a bit more juice with the points. The safer bet is actually to take the juice as this market is taking a stance on this very fixture. Contrarily in Money Line markets, no one wants a piece of the Jets with the juice then and there, which says to us the Jets are obviously a team that have little faith from the public overall. Can anyone fault that position? The best bet here is the Browns with the points.

This is a big game for both clubs as the Raiders are tied for the division lead and the Buccaneers are only a game behind the Falcons. Tampa Bay’s defense has been up and down this year and I think they will have trouble defending the big-play offense of Oakland. Winston has been prone to big mistakes in 2016 and while he handled the 49ers pretty handily, he must now deal with the better team by the bay. The Raiders have shown themselves to be road warriors this season and a 2nd-consecutive game in Florida means no long trips home in between. I see Carr outplaying Winston in this game and giving the Raiders another big road win.

Both of these teams have some solid talent on the offensive side of the ball, but neither one has been able to move the ball down the field and score points on a consistent basis. Things could open up this week in a head-to-head matchup although the recent trends on the total line in this division clash point to a low scoring affair.

I would probably lean towards Tennessee at home, but I also think that both teams will have some level of success against the opposing team’s defense to the point where the total goes OVER the current 44-point line on Thursday night.

The first inclination I had for this matchup was a low-scoring grinder that still stayed UNDER an already low 40.5-point total line, but I decided to go with Denver’s long-standing success playing at home going up against Houston long-running inability to win on the road.

As my “best bet” pick for Monday night, I am going to lay the touchdown spread and take the Broncos to win this game by more than seven points.

The first inclination I had for this matchup was a low-scoring grinder that still stayed UNDER an already low 40.5-point total line, but I decided to go with Denver’s long-standing success playing at home going up against Houston long-running inability to win on the road.

As my “best bet” pick for Monday night, I am going to lay the touchdown spread and take the Broncos to win this game by more than seven points.

Both teams are relying heavily on their defense to win games this year and while Seattle has been solid since Week 1, the Cardinals’ defense has picked up the pace over the past few weeks.

The past trends in this division tilt tend to favor a higher scoring game than expected when they meet in the desert, but I do not think that will be the case on Sunday night. The total line in this game is already set pretty low at 43.5 points, but I still think that the final score stays UNDER this number.

This is a bad week for the Steelers to have to face the Patriots. The absence of Big Ben will limit the offense and the defense is reeling after another blow-out loss on the road. New England is rolling and appears to be one of the top 2-3 teams in the league (again). NE is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups with Pittsburgh and I expect this game to hold true to form. With the line only a converted TD, I have no problem backing the visitor in this one.

The Vikings are 5-0, the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The Eagles have dropped 2 straight after an impressive 3-0 start. Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer is a defensive veteran who will have watched film of Philadelphia’s last 2 games and should be able to establish a game plan to make Wentz uncomfortable. Both teams have had success on kick returns but Vikings PR Marcus Sherels (2 TDs) and KR Cordarrelle Patterson are especially dangerous. With the Vikings ascending and the Eagles descending, I feel comfortable laying less than a FG in this one.

The Jets enter in the perfect position. The Jets’ stock has plummeted and now they may be the laughing stock of all the league entering this contest. The numbers reflect this narrative and much of this reaction is predicated on the outcome of Monday Night’s contest. When most of the country watches such a beat down, an overreaction is likely to occur in the following week to lay a team like the Jets. Let us highlight the fact, the Jets lost to three playoff teams in a row, a list that includes, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona. Baltimore has not played any team comparable to this caliber yet. Now they are tasked with going back to MetLife Stadium yet again and hoping to foster a different result than the one sustained on Sunday…the outlook of which looks grim. In Over/Under markets, the heavy steam on the Under prompts us to go the other way with the over as it is feasible Gang Green and the Birds both get their offenses going in a potential shootout. Anything can happen but the pick-em market quantifies this preposition. If the game is a virtual-toss up from market perspective the move is to certainly play on the time with a perceived home field advantage as opposed to a road dog that has documented struggles. Jets is the call.

The Giants at -2.5 are priced at -125. At -3 they are evens. It is as if the books are inviting money to come in on the Rams which tells us right away the Rams could be a potential trap bet. The Giants recently shook off a nasty three-game skid and this is a team with many offensive weapons at their disposal. Eli Manning has thrown for over 4,000 yards on many occasions and we all know what Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham, Jr can do. The question is whether the Rams can handle any offense that comes at them at this point thus why the Giants at -2.5 require substantial juice, it is almost as if the books are saying the Giants are going to win this one and they are extraordinarily confident as so. Normally books are very sharp when it comes to high-profile contests of this caliber be that the audience is international and all will see this game unfold. Sure, the Rams may have some weapons of their own but the Giants at the end of the day are dealing with a five-hour time difference to contend with as opposed to the Rams who are traveling nearly 10 hours with an eight-hour overlay. Giants will win this one handily.

Tampa Bay has some ugly trends to deal with in this contest (0-6-1 ATS after their bye since 2009, 2-12 SU all time at SF) but I think they will overcome those this week. The 49ers are reeling and not being competitive in games. Tampa Bay had the week off to get healthy and HC Dirk Koetter hammered it into QB Jameis Winston’s head about avoiding TOs. With the return of Martin and the DLs, I expect the Bucs to get a rare win at a place they have seldom won at in the past. The season-ending loss of 49ers ILB Navorro Bowman certainly doesn’t help SF’s cause either.

Both of these teams have not played up to expectations this season although the bar for Green Bay was set much higher before the regular season got underway. The Packers have dominated this series over the past several seasons SU, but their current form does not instill a ton of confidence in their ability to cover a nine-point spread.

The better play in this one could be the UNDER on the 46-point total line. Both defenses are playing fairly well and it is hard to see Chicago scoring all that many points on offense.

This matchup could be just what the Cardinals need to start turning things around. New York’s current problems run deep on both sides of the ball, while the return of Palmer to the starting lineup should give Arizona a big boost on offense.

The extra half point on what opened as a touchdown spread is somewhat of a concern, but I still see the Cardinals playing to expectations to win this game both SU and ATS.

Both of these teams have been unimpressive at times this season, but I would have to give the slight edge to Houston playing at home. The Texans appear to still be the class of the watered-down AFC South and they are a much better team at NRG Stadium then playing on the road.

I was tempted to go with the UNDER in this game because I see the Colts struggling to put points on the board, but the “best bet” pick is to lay the three points and take the Texans to win both SU and ATS.

Very rarely do we see the public heavily enamored by a pooch on the road like we have seen here with the Falcons going in to the Emerald City. Most of the time we do see favorites get most of the money, it’s often a matter of how much. However, Atlanta in this market seems to be a gift to any taker which compels us to stay clear of those offerings that seem too good to be true, because they almost always are. Seattle is known for a robust home field advantage and thus earned the syndicate name of the “12th Man”. Nevertheless, Atlanta has looked good in the early going but their defense looks suspect as usual. We have seen how Seattle handles teams of this nature in similar situations before. Case and point, Seattle’s destruction of San Francisco, followed up by a road assault against the New York Jets. Seattle has improved to a remarkable 3-1 even after they looked imperiled losing 9-3 against Los Angeles in a true defensive struggle. Atlanta’s defense makes them vulnerable week in and week out, we don’t care about what their record says. We will go ahead and spot the points.

Cincy is a desperate club this week but this is their 2nd-straight tough road assignment. The offense lacks an identity outside of Green and this isn’t a matchup they are likely to find it. The Pats didn’t resemble anything similar last week to the team that was shut out by Buffalo just the week before. These two teams last met in the infamous “On to Cincinnati” game in 2014, one week after the Pats were destroyed 41-14 by the Chiefs on Monday night. Their response? A 43-17 butt-kicking of the Bengals. I expect this to be another high-scoring affair and am very comfortable with an Over play in this one.

Pittsburgh is always a trendy pick because their offense ignites every field they tread upon. The Steelers have perhaps the most dynamic set of wide receivers and skill players in all of the NFL. The Black and Yellow also have a true tactician at head coach in Mike Tomlin combined with an experienced and seasoned quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger that knows how to catalyze the numbers. However, road points spotted to a home host is usually a dangerous practice in the NFL. When you throw in over a touchdown and it seems to leave takers exposed on the back end. Pittsburgh is a better football team than Miami there is no question about that. However, the stock in both teams are heading in different directions which presents a scenario where a true buy-low, sell-high angle comes in to the picture. Pittsburgh’s defense is not be any stretch what we are accustomed to seeing in their prime. Therefore, a play on the Over along with taking the points with Miami offers tremendous upside in this Week Six fixture.

This is a huge early-season game for both clubs. Dallas is 4-1 and looking like they are for real and even the 2-3 Giants look like they can compete. The Eagles are 10-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and are playing very well on both sides of the ball. They gave up TD passes on Detroit’s first 3 possessions last week and then limited them to a last-minute FG the rest of the way. Wentz has taken better care of the ball than Cousins and the Redskins signalcaller can expect a lot of pressure up front on passing downs. He has proven to get rattled in the past and I think the Eagles secondary can stay with these receivers if the pass rush is forcing quick throws.