NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Detroit is well-rested and playing this game at home, but I do not have all that much confidence in its ability to slow this Steelers’ offense down enough to keep this game close. Pittsburgh has built some momentum in its last two games, especially with that earlier road win against the Chiefs. Bank on one of the best teams in the AFC to keep getting better with another win on Sunday both SU and ATS.

All of America bore witness to the Redskins’ decisive loss on Monday night and generally speaking whoever lost in the Monday Night match-up is a popular fade in the following week. This positions us ideally to back the Skins. This is especially true when Dallas looks to be in peak form after they pounded San Francisco. The two contrasting narratives surrounding both teams entering into this contest cultivates what we call an archetypal buy-low and sell-high scenario.

A few weeks ago, many questioned whether or not Dallas is going to repeat as NFC East Champion. After all, the Cowboys look to be in maligned form but they have conjured an opposite reaction on the heels of their most recent performance. However, beating up on San Francisco is nothing to brag about. The Niners are one of the lowest-quality teams in the NFL and pale in comparison to the competitive proficiency of Washington. Furthermore, rivalry games such as these bring the unexpected. You can be rest assured that the Redskins faithful will do everything it can to generate some home cooking and be a perpetual thorn in America’s Team side. Though the points certainly seem like an excellent play, Washington also warrants a look on the Money Line. With the market priced this low, the Redskins are primed to orchestrate an upset in the cozy confines of their own field.

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits to Raymond James Stadium. They have the better defense and I think that unit will contain the Buccaneers while Newton and the offense should bounce back against a defense that gives up 408.5 yards of offense per game. Carolina is even getting 2 points and I look for them to get their 4th road win of the year this Sunday.

Philadelphia and San Francisco at this point will be subjected to two distinct phenomenon that are routinely found in all of sports betting. For Philadelphia, the fact they have been a cash cow all season long and own the best record in the NFL subjects their takers to a hidden premium to take action on them. Though it does not appear so given their success, Philadelphia is likely throwing extra weight on backers in this market especially since it aligns perfectly with what teams like San Francisco typically undergo.

The 49ers have few selling points. The Niners are winless on the year and they were absolutely smacked last week. Generally, no one is going to want a part of San Fran as a result. In many cases, the points that can be taken back with the Gold Rush are enhanced to entice action. That is why the Niners are 4-3 ATS despite being without a win on the year. When you factor in that Philadelphia handled Washington convincingly for primetime national audiences on Monday Night, a reaction will be created and many will still lay the lumber. However, what we have in front of us here is a quality opportunity to fade the public on a likely overvalued Eagles team. Take the points.

The Bears have won two of QB Mitch Trubinsky’s starts, but he’s been more of a game manager with extremely weak statistics. On the season the rookie signal caller has completed a paltry 50% of his passes for 348 yards throwing two touchdown passes to go with one interception. Chicago wins on defense and when they haven’t had a high turnover number they have held the opposition to 23 or fewer points in those five games. The Saints have allowed 22 points per game overall this season and while they have allowed a ridiculous 37 points per game at home this season, that number is skewed. They have just two home games in this campaign, with the first game coming in Week 2 against the Patriots exploited an inexperienced secondary for 436 passing yards and 36 points. In the other home game, a turnover fest against Detroit in Week 6, New Orleans held a 45-10 lead past the halfway mark in the third quarter before some prevent defense combined with TDs on a punt return and a two-yard Pick 6 allowed the Lions to put 28 meaningless points. Oh, and that inexperienced secondary I mentioned earlier, they’ve allowed a total of 161 passing yards per game over their last four included in that number is an inflated 281 to Detroit.

Oakland is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups in this series and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits. Carr needed to play big against the Chiefs to end a 4-game losing streak and he delivered. He and Cooper finally got back on the same page and together with Crabtree and Cook, the ‘3 Cs’ are a handful for any secondary. Taylor is hamstrung by a weak receiving corps and the running game hasn’t been the force it was in 2015 and 2016. The Raiders are a real threat to win this game outright plus they are getting 3 points. I think recent history will repeat itself and that Oakland will leave the Queen City with another victory.

Four of the Colts losses this season have been by 37, 28, 14 and 27 points as they rarely have been competitive. Their only 2 wins have come against the remaining 2 winless teams in the NFL (CLE, SF). Cincinnati still has playoff aspirations but they need to win this game before embarking on a 3-game road trip. Indianapolis is dealing with several injuries and there also appears to be dissension in the locker room. While the number is big, I feel the Bengals can get well in a huge way this week against an undermanned and uninspired team.

With the way that the Vikings are playing defense right now, my first thought was to play the UNDER. However, the Browns are beat up on defense and they allowed three of their last five opponents to surpass 30 points in better health. Add in that Cleveland QB Deshone Kizer has thrown 11 interceptions this year and the total number may be too low. What does look appealing is the point spread line. Sure, it’s huge needing a winning margin of a converted touchdown plus a field goal to get the money, but the Browns have been beaten soundly by the Ravens (24-10), Bengals (31-7) and the Texans (33-16). The main thing that those three teams have in common is the ability to play defense.

The big difference between these two teams heading into this Thursday night’s matchup is that Miami continues to find ways to win games, while Baltimore has seem to forgotten how to play a full four quarters of football. Even with Moore at quarterback, look for the Dolphins to move the ball on the Ravens all night long, especially on the ground. In the end, it should be another tight SU victory for the Dolphins making the three points on the current spread a gift.

Washington has played rather well this season overall, but it will now have to face a red-hot division rival on the road in the prime time lights of Monday Night Football. While the Redskins have gotten the best of things in this matchup in recent years, trends tend to turn around quickly in the highly competitive NFC East. The memories of five-straight losses to Washington (SU and ATS) before that opening-day victory linger as Philly pulls off the season sweep this year both SU and ATS.

Both of these teams have failed to live up their lofty preseason expectations through the first six weeks of the regular season and while I am not sure which one returns the closest to form on Sunday night, I do believe that this will not be the high-scoring affair that the Oddsmakers are expecting with a 55-point total line. I would lean slightly towards New England at home, but the ‘best bet’ in this one is the UNDER on that inflated total line.

The Broncos are beat up on their offensive line at the tackle position and I feel that the loss of WR Emmanuel Sanders is large on a team that doesn’t have a lot of weapons. The Giants proved last week that if you shut down the Denver ground attack you can force QB Trevor Siemian into making mistakes. The Chargers have won two straight games (both on the road) and return home where they are winless. Keep in mind though, that Los Angeles lost two of their games by two points and that their opponents Dolphins (3-2), Chiefs (5-1) and Eagles (5-1) are a combined 13-4 on the season.

Seattle gets a break as they play another late-starting game on the east coast. They are historically bad against the number after their bye (8-21-1) but I just can’t back this New York team this week. Both teams have porous o-lines, maybe the 2 worst units in the league. Both teams have had trouble establishing the run and lack elite passing options. I see this game as a defensive slugfest with both offenses struggling to find a rhythm and maintain scoring drives. Therefore, I’ll take the under in this contest.

Jacksonville has given up copious amounts of rushing yardage in their 3 losses and has to buckle down this week. The Colts haven’t been a strong running team in years and look for the Jags to overplay the run and count on their elite corners, Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, to protect the back end. Fournette will remain the main man on offense but Bortles will have to make a few plays downfield to keep the defense honest. Jacksonville has alternated wins and losses and should be able to get the win this week. The number is only a FG and I feel their pass defense and running game can get them a big road cover and key divisional win this Sunday.

There are several moving parts to this play that make Cleveland an excellent choice in this situation. First, the Titans are bound to generate a lot of attention be that they defeated Indianapolis by two touchdowns on Monday Night Football. All of the country bore witness to Tennessee’s victory and generally speaking whoever won the Monday Night match-up is a trendy play in the following week.

Furthermore, the stock in Cleveland is through the floor. The Dawg Pound has failed to cover in their last five games and this has been complemented by another winless campaign so far, as well. Despite all of these variables, we see the Browns priced at a notoriously friendly number for underdogs. The market is continuing to entice action on Tennessee operating off of these two presiding notions. However, though Cleveland seems to be a lame duck for takers to back they may actually be in line for their first win this season in what would be classed as a tremendous upset. The Browns have lost three games this season by just a field goal. Nevertheless, had the Browns caught a few bounces perhaps this contest would have an entirely discussion and feel to it. Regardless of the facts, the market seems to be acutely aware that the Browns are due for a correction against their performance portfolio. This may be the event to bring forth such an outcome. Take the points.

The Bills remain in the hunt for the AFC East crown thanks to their defense. They have a favorable matchup this week as Winston will be bothered by his shoulder if he plays and they have had success against Fitzpatrick from his time with the Jets. Buffalo’s offense is a work in progress but look for them to continue to grind away with their ground game. Some holes showed up for the Bucs last week and the Bills will look to exploit them. The number is only a FG and I see the Bills defense playing a big role in a win at home for Buffalo.

The extra juice on Carolina in itself is something that will scare us off backing the Panthers be that there is little value in laying extra juice as a whole, given the fact it is harder to overcome from a long-term perspective. The fact remains that this market is low enough to where the Money Line has equity be that the reduced number can traded in to subtract the vig from this proposition. Essentially, takers can risk less to make more and the market has shown that Chicago has a decent chance at winning this game outright, given the current figure. Outside of the mechanics, Chicago has been undervalued as a whole this season. Last year, the Bears were in the lower echelons of the league. This year it has been clearly evident that this team has a brighter future. Chicago’s overtime win at Baltimore last week as a 6.5-point dog typifies this. Carolina is a team that will attract a lot of attention because it is led by one of the NFL’s most dynamic and colorful players in quarterback Cam Newton. With a perfect road record on the year, the Panthers seem like a choice play given the fact they have taken down the likes of Detroit and New England in their own steads. However, the price seems too friendly and usually when it seems that way…it is. For those who wish to be a bit conservative, Chicago is a quality play with the field goal. However, this team is also worth a look on the Money Line.

There is no arguing that both teams are banged up at key positions, but the biggest injury or in this case non- injured player this week is DT Brandon Williams. The Ravens coasted to easy wins in Week 1 and Week 2 with their top run stuffer in the line-up allowing combined 10 points and 169 yards on the ground. With Williams not on the field Baltimore went 1-3 allowing 678 total rushing yards – 169.5 per game! The Vikings defense is elite, but their offense is not which should make the points difficult to come by for both teams on Sunday. If it plays out that way, it is always prudent to take the points.

Kansas City is still a much better team than the one that took the field last Sunday against the Steelers, but I am not sure that Oakland is capable of quickly turning things around given its performance over the past four weeks. This team may have been a bit over-hyped on the heels of last year’s 11-5 run and it is starting to show in its recent performances. Giving just 2.5 points to the Raiders appears to be a gift and I am going to take it with a play on Kansas City ATS this Thursday night.

We already know which quarterback will be running the Colts’ offense and, even if Mariota is a go under center for Tennessee, this matchup has the makings of turning into a low-scoring grinder that keeps both teams well below the 20-point mark on the scoreboard. The actual betting line for the total will be influenced by Mariota’s playing status, but I am still going with the UNDER on an expected line of 40 points.