NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

The big difference between these two teams heading into this Thursday night’s matchup is that Miami continues to find ways to win games, while Baltimore has seem to forgotten how to play a full four quarters of football. Even with Moore at quarterback, look for the Dolphins to move the ball on the Ravens all night long, especially on the ground. In the end, it should be another tight SU victory for the Dolphins making the three points on the current spread a gift.

Washington has played rather well this season overall, but it will now have to face a red-hot division rival on the road in the prime time lights of Monday Night Football. While the Redskins have gotten the best of things in this matchup in recent years, trends tend to turn around quickly in the highly competitive NFC East. The memories of five-straight losses to Washington (SU and ATS) before that opening-day victory linger as Philly pulls off the season sweep this year both SU and ATS.

Both of these teams have failed to live up their lofty preseason expectations through the first six weeks of the regular season and while I am not sure which one returns the closest to form on Sunday night, I do believe that this will not be the high-scoring affair that the Oddsmakers are expecting with a 55-point total line. I would lean slightly towards New England at home, but the ‘best bet’ in this one is the UNDER on that inflated total line.

The Broncos are beat up on their offensive line at the tackle position and I feel that the loss of WR Emmanuel Sanders is large on a team that doesn’t have a lot of weapons. The Giants proved last week that if you shut down the Denver ground attack you can force QB Trevor Siemian into making mistakes. The Chargers have won two straight games (both on the road) and return home where they are winless. Keep in mind though, that Los Angeles lost two of their games by two points and that their opponents Dolphins (3-2), Chiefs (5-1) and Eagles (5-1) are a combined 13-4 on the season.

Seattle gets a break as they play another late-starting game on the east coast. They are historically bad against the number after their bye (8-21-1) but I just can’t back this New York team this week. Both teams have porous o-lines, maybe the 2 worst units in the league. Both teams have had trouble establishing the run and lack elite passing options. I see this game as a defensive slugfest with both offenses struggling to find a rhythm and maintain scoring drives. Therefore, I’ll take the under in this contest.

Jacksonville has given up copious amounts of rushing yardage in their 3 losses and has to buckle down this week. The Colts haven’t been a strong running team in years and look for the Jags to overplay the run and count on their elite corners, Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, to protect the back end. Fournette will remain the main man on offense but Bortles will have to make a few plays downfield to keep the defense honest. Jacksonville has alternated wins and losses and should be able to get the win this week. The number is only a FG and I feel their pass defense and running game can get them a big road cover and key divisional win this Sunday.

There are several moving parts to this play that make Cleveland an excellent choice in this situation. First, the Titans are bound to generate a lot of attention be that they defeated Indianapolis by two touchdowns on Monday Night Football. All of the country bore witness to Tennessee’s victory and generally speaking whoever won the Monday Night match-up is a trendy play in the following week.

Furthermore, the stock in Cleveland is through the floor. The Dawg Pound has failed to cover in their last five games and this has been complemented by another winless campaign so far, as well. Despite all of these variables, we see the Browns priced at a notoriously friendly number for underdogs. The market is continuing to entice action on Tennessee operating off of these two presiding notions. However, though Cleveland seems to be a lame duck for takers to back they may actually be in line for their first win this season in what would be classed as a tremendous upset. The Browns have lost three games this season by just a field goal. Nevertheless, had the Browns caught a few bounces perhaps this contest would have an entirely discussion and feel to it. Regardless of the facts, the market seems to be acutely aware that the Browns are due for a correction against their performance portfolio. This may be the event to bring forth such an outcome. Take the points.

The Bills remain in the hunt for the AFC East crown thanks to their defense. They have a favorable matchup this week as Winston will be bothered by his shoulder if he plays and they have had success against Fitzpatrick from his time with the Jets. Buffalo’s offense is a work in progress but look for them to continue to grind away with their ground game. Some holes showed up for the Bucs last week and the Bills will look to exploit them. The number is only a FG and I see the Bills defense playing a big role in a win at home for Buffalo.

The extra juice on Carolina in itself is something that will scare us off backing the Panthers be that there is little value in laying extra juice as a whole, given the fact it is harder to overcome from a long-term perspective. The fact remains that this market is low enough to where the Money Line has equity be that the reduced number can traded in to subtract the vig from this proposition. Essentially, takers can risk less to make more and the market has shown that Chicago has a decent chance at winning this game outright, given the current figure. Outside of the mechanics, Chicago has been undervalued as a whole this season. Last year, the Bears were in the lower echelons of the league. This year it has been clearly evident that this team has a brighter future. Chicago’s overtime win at Baltimore last week as a 6.5-point dog typifies this. Carolina is a team that will attract a lot of attention because it is led by one of the NFL’s most dynamic and colorful players in quarterback Cam Newton. With a perfect road record on the year, the Panthers seem like a choice play given the fact they have taken down the likes of Detroit and New England in their own steads. However, the price seems too friendly and usually when it seems that way…it is. For those who wish to be a bit conservative, Chicago is a quality play with the field goal. However, this team is also worth a look on the Money Line.

There is no arguing that both teams are banged up at key positions, but the biggest injury or in this case non- injured player this week is DT Brandon Williams. The Ravens coasted to easy wins in Week 1 and Week 2 with their top run stuffer in the line-up allowing combined 10 points and 169 yards on the ground. With Williams not on the field Baltimore went 1-3 allowing 678 total rushing yards – 169.5 per game! The Vikings defense is elite, but their offense is not which should make the points difficult to come by for both teams on Sunday. If it plays out that way, it is always prudent to take the points.

Kansas City is still a much better team than the one that took the field last Sunday against the Steelers, but I am not sure that Oakland is capable of quickly turning things around given its performance over the past four weeks. This team may have been a bit over-hyped on the heels of last year’s 11-5 run and it is starting to show in its recent performances. Giving just 2.5 points to the Raiders appears to be a gift and I am going to take it with a play on Kansas City ATS this Thursday night.

We already know which quarterback will be running the Colts’ offense and, even if Mariota is a go under center for Tennessee, this matchup has the makings of turning into a low-scoring grinder that keeps both teams well below the 20-point mark on the scoreboard. The actual betting line for the total will be influenced by Mariota’s playing status, but I am still going with the UNDER on an expected line of 40 points.

The prospect for any kind of dramatic turnaround is not all that promising for the injury-riddled Giants, but this is still the NFL and giving up double-digit points in any matchup only adds more risk to the possible reward of a cashing in a winning bet on the favorite. As far as my ‘best bet’ pick, look for Denver to grind out another SU win at home behind the strength of its defense to keep the total in this game UNDER the current 39.5-point line.

It’s difficult to get a really good read on where Tampa Bay is on their progression in 2017 mainly because of Hurricane Irma having them with one less game under their belt than their competition. What we have seen though is a team that can move the ball with 400 plus combined yards in their last two and over 300 yards passing in three straight. Arizona has certainly not lit it up this season, averaging just 16.2 points per game, while facing three lower level points per game clubs. Their offense does match up well on paper against the Bucs defense, but with the O-Line changes and RB Peterson new to the offense they may not be totally in sync this week. If they exceed my expectations in this game, the total will be an easy over, but the Bucs prevail.

The Cardinals have needed OT to beat the lowly Colts and 49ers and have lost by double digits to their 3 other opponents. With no running game and an injury-ravaged o-line, Palmer is being asked to do too much. The Bucs haven’t looked like world beaters either but the return of Martin does help their offense and their pass rushers should have a good day against Arizona. The number is less than a FG and I like Tampa to get a big road win this week.

This matchup appears to look like a blowout. The Texans have scored 124 points over their past 3 games and while they lost 2 of them, their offense looks explosive. Also, the Browns don’t have the offensive firepower the Patriots and Chiefs possess. Houston’s defense will miss Watt and Mercilus and hasn’t been great with them. However, I feel they can step up and contain an offense with no identity and questions at QB. The Texans are 3-0 ATS in the last 3 games of this series and I expect them to be 4-0 ATS after this Sunday.

While the 49ers are winless, their last 4 losses have been by 3 points or less. Hoyer is playing well and the defense, while young, is much improved from 2016. The Redskins are 2-2 and trying to stay in the hunt for the NFC East title. If Hyde can be a viable threat this week, Hoyer should have opportunities downfield to make some big plays. This is a big number and while the talent edge goes to Washington, I think a hungry, young 49ers team can stay within reach. They are also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 visits to the nation’s capital.

Despite each team’s early success, this Thursday night’s contest a big test for both in their quest to be considered a legitimate contender in the NFC this season. While the betting spread for this game is razor sharp at three points for the home team in a very tight matchup, I believe the total line at 45.5 points is a bit soft given the way that both of these quarterbacks have been throwing touchdowns lately. This sets the stage for a play on the OVER for Thursday night.

The Vikings have already proven that they know how to score points and win games at home although that was not the case last week. The jury is still out on this team as a favorite on the road against a Bears’ team that has done a good job at playing its best ball at home. That puts enough doubt in my mind to take the three points and take Chicago to cover again at Soldier Field.

Kansas City has earned its spot as the top team in the NFL right now behind some incredible balance across every phase of the game. While the Chiefs have clearly been the most complete team in the league through the first quarter of the schedule, the pressure to keep playing at this high of a level begins to mount. I am sensing a bit of a trap heading into Monday’s tilt against a fire-up Houston team coming off a huge win at home. This sets the stage for Kansas City’s first setback of the year.