Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Pick - Odds - ATS Prediction

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Carolina gave up 2 75+ yard defensive TD returns in a 17-3 loss to Chicago last week. Tampa Bay surrendered 10 points in the last 2:28 to lose 30-27 to Buffalo last Sunday.
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The Panthers were able to move the ball against the Bears but costly mistakes deep in Chicago territory doomed them. QB Cam Newton has an unsightly 9-10 TD/INT ratio and has to stop forcing passes. He misses TE Greg Olsen (IR) but WRs Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess have combined for 60-782-4 and offer big receiving targets. Rookie RB Christian McCaffrey leads NFL RBs with 44 catches and is a dynamic presence in the open field. The Buccaneers are allowing 295 passing ypg, so Newton should be able to find open receivers. The o-line lost 3 starters last week but should have some of them back this week. Newton has been sacked 22 times in 2017 but the Bucs have only 7 sacks on the year. The running game hasn’t produced as McCaffrey and RB Jonathan Stewart are both averaging 3.0 ypc or less. Newton remains a great running option and has the team’s only 3 rushing TDs. Tampa Bay’s run defense is very average this season so maybe the backs can find some running room, especially if the passing game is clicking.
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The Buccaneers are averaging only 80.5 ypg on the ground as even the return of RB Doug Martin from suspension hasn’t jumpstarted it. Conversely, Carolina allows only 81 ypc to opponents’ running games so I don’t expect the Bucs to run wild on Sunday. This puts most of the pressure on the offense on the shoulders of QB Jameis Winston. Despite playing with a sprained shoulder, Winston had a big game against the Bills (384 yards, 3 TD passes). Rookie TE O.J. Howard showed signs of life last week (6-98-2) but Winston still looks to WR Mike Evans on most plays. The Panthers have picked off only 1 pass but have held opponents to only 180.7 passing ypg. Tampa Bay has surrendered just 10 sacks on the year but the Carolina defense has 24 sacks on the season, 6.5 by DE Julius Peppers. How the o-line handles the pass rush will go a long way in determining how successful this offense is this Sunday.
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Public Money Consensus
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In this week 7 NFL matchup between Carolina and Tampa Bay have the public leaning slightly to the Panthers minus the 2 points on the road with just over 52%. The over/under bettors are more confident this game will go over the posted total line of 46 with over 70% on board.
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