Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics Pick - Odds - Expert Preview

Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics Pick - Odds - Expert Preview

Date: May 11, 7:30 pm
Location: Wells Fargo Center

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Philadelphia 76ers +2.5
Total: 214.5

The stage is set for an enthralling showdown as the Boston Celtics aim to restore balance to the series, standing 3-2 against the Philadelphia 76ers in the crucial Game 6.

Betting preview

The series narrative took a turn after Game 3 when the Celtics, leading 2-1, stumbled in the subsequent two encounters. Their latest defeat, a 115-103 loss in Game 5, has now put them on the brink of elimination. The Celtics' performance was led by Jayson Tatum with a commendable 36 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. Jaylen Brown's contribution of 24 points and Marcus Smart's 14 points were notable but insufficient. The team struggled offensively, with an underwhelming 39% field goal accuracy and a 31.6% 3-point conversion rate. The deficit of 21 points by the third quarter was a hurdle too high to overcome.

On the flip side, the 76ers are riding high on confidence, standing one triumph away from securing a spot in the Conference Finals. Joel Embiid, with an impressive 33 points, seven rebounds, and four blocks, spearheaded their Game 5 victory. Tyrese Maxey contributed 30 points, while James Harden's all-round performance of 17 points, eight rebounds, and 10 assists bolstered the 76ers' command. With a 50% field goal accuracy and 40% 3-point efficiency, the 76ers were able to establish a robust lead and maintain it throughout the game.

Betting Trends

Examining the betting trends, the Celtics have a strong record on the road, going 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven outings, and have consistently performed well against winning sides with a 9-3 ATS in their last 12 such games. Following a defeat, their record stands at a solid 6-1 ATS.

The 76ers showcase a stellar home game record, standing 27-13 ATS in their last 40 matches. They've also excelled after a win, with a 15-7-1 ATS following a victory of more than 10 points, and overall, they boast an 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Head-to-Head Stats

Head-to-head data indicates an over tendency, with 4 out of the last 5 meetings surpassing the set total. The Celtics have a 7-3 ATS in the last 10 overall meetings, and a favorable 4-1 ATS in their last five encounters in Philadelphia.

76ers at Celtics Total Pick 05/11/23

The Celtics started the series strong but are now facing an uphill battle. The 76ers, on the other hand, have found their rhythm but my gut feeling is that the Celtics take this. Since we don't bet on "gut feelings", I'm skipping a side play and going with the total. The Celtics need to play top-level defense to have any shot at the win here. Even after four of the five games have gone over the total this game opened as the lowest total of the series. In my opinion that's because the sportsbooks are trying to avoid having the under get pounded by the sharps. I would have liked to see a 215 plus, but there is still enough meat left on the bone for me to bite. Take the Under 213.'

Free Pick: Take the Under 213
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