Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Game 5 ATS Prediction

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Game 5 ATS Prediction

Darin Zank
Date: June 12, 8:30 pm
Location: Ball Arena

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Mia +9/Den +9
Total: 209

<p>The Denver Nuggets look to close out their first NBA championship when they host the Miami Heat for Game 5 of these NBA Finals Monday night in Denver. The Nuggets settled for a split of the first two games of this Series at home but then won the next two in Miami, setting up a chance to clinch the title in front of the home folks Monday night.</p>
<p>But the Great Equalize says Denver is favored by nine points.</p>
<p>How are we playing Game 5 with our free Game 5 betting pick?</p>
<h2>NBA Finals Betting Odds </h2>
<p>The NBA Finals <a href="; title="NBA Betting Odds From Multiple Sportsbooks">betting lines</a> opened Denver at -9 for Game 5, with an over/under of right around 209. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.</p>
<h2>NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Preview </h2>
<p>Denver grabbed a 3-1 lead in this NBA Finals with a 108-95 Game 4 victory in Miami Friday night. The Nuggets trailed the Heat 21-20 after one quarter but ground out a 55-51 lead into halftime. Denver pushed its advantage to 13 late in the third quarter, let Miami get within five early in the fourth but spurted back to a double-digit lead and held on from there for the win and the cover at -3.5.</p>
<p>Also, Game 4 played under a total of 211.</p>
<p>The Nuggets shot 49 percent from the field Friday, hit 14/28 from 3-point land, and won the turnover battle 15-8.</p>
<p>Denver won Game 3 last Wednesday in Miami 109-94, covering as a three-point favorite.</p>
<p>With Friday's win/cover, the Nuggets are now 15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS this postseason.</p>
<p>The Heat, on the other hand, are just 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS their last eight times out.</p>
<p>For the series, Denver is shooting 51 percent from the field, Miami just 42 percent.</p>
<p>The Nuggets won Game 1 of these NBA Finals rather easily 104-93, covering at -9, then led Game 2 by eight points through three quarters before allowing Miami to rally and steal that game.</p>
<p>So basically, Denver is about one bad eight-minute stretch from having already swept this Series.</p>
<h2>Heat-Nuggets Recent History</h2>
<p>Denver is now 9-1, both straight-up and against the spread, over the last ten meetings with the Heat, stretching back through 2021. The Nuggets are also 5-1 both SU and ATS against Miami this season.</p>
<h2>NBA Finals Betting Trends </h2>
<p>The Nuggets are 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS at home this postseason.</p>
<p>Miami is 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS on the road this postseason.</p>
<h2>Totals Report </h2>
<p>The Unders is 3-1 in this NBA Finals, as the games have averaged 205 total points against an average over/under of 215.</p>

Heat at Nuggets Game 5 ATS Bet

Denver's the better team in this match-up and should win this game but playing at home means the spread is probably inflated by a bucket or two. And Miami is 6-2 ATS in these playoffs when getting eight or more points. We're not calling for the outright upset here, but we are betting on the Heat plus the points.


Free Pick: Take Miami +9
Get $60 Free Picks