Memphis took both earlier matches this season including a 98–90 win here at the Toyota Center. The Rockets come into this game on a four-game win streak with James Harden playing lights out and I look for the team to ride him to their fifth straight win. The scheduling advantage for Houston is big here with Memphis in the middle of a six-game road trip but going into this game without playing since Tuesday night in Portland. I just don’t feel that we’ll get the best game out of the Grizzlies leading the revenge minded Rockets to the spread cover.

There are several moving parts to this play. First, as we have mentioned previously teams like Sacramento often come accompanied by enhanced points be that they offer little appeal. This is even so in spite of the fact they have won their last two contests overall. When this is combined with the fact the Knicks often incur premiums for takers to book them at the World’s Most Famous Arena that propensity is even greater. The Knicks are 5-2 at home this season so this narrative is likely in full effect. Sacramento is likely in position to not only cover but win outright. However, we will stay conservative here and take the points.

Milwaukee just hasn’t been playing solid defense allowing triple digits in five consecutive games. The Spurs have put together a nice little three-game win streak surpassing the century mark in all three games and shouldn’t have a problem tonight reaching that number. The Spurs defense isn’t what it was in the past (100.6 ppg on 46.5 FG% and I could see the Bucks getting in the low 100’s tonight.

The stock on Detroit is at its peak as they continue to dominate and impress. This could never before more evident after their most recent performance against Indiana. Detroit has lost just one game at home this season. This statistic also weighs heavily on this market and is likely influencing the assessment and evaluation. On paper it appears Atlanta has no chance. A similar narrative unfolded when the Hawks traveled to Cleveland and the rest is history. However, we are not here to suggest an upset is in the works. Whilst the Pistons may indeed win this game and continue their winning streak, they are likely spotting too many points to the Hawks. The Hawks are another team that many are going to be reluctant to the book be that they have little appeal in their current state. Teams like this often get inflated numbers thrown their way and thus we will take advantage of this narrative.

Oklahoma City had won and covered four straight before a 111-105 loss as a 6-point favorite. They come into this game on a three-game losing streak and it must be noted that they were favored in all three. Denver comes into this match on a three-game losing streak against the spread, but they have won three of their last four overall. They’ve been a solid 4-2 at home losing only to two quality opponents in Golden State and Washington. They only need to get the “W” here to get the money and that’s what I feel will be the outcome tonight.

When you back the Raptors in the Air Canada Centre there is likely a premium to do so. After all, Toronto is known as a team with one of the most prominent home court advantages in the NBA. Good luck telling to that DCuz and AD. With a proficient point guard like Jrue Holiday feeding these two titans, the Pelicans can bully their way to yet another victory. Not only can New Orleans cover, they can win outright. Take the points.

Given the fact Boston is prone to be overvalued in light of their recent supremacy, swallowing the points may pose to be a risky venture. However, the opposite may actually be the case be that initial line movements suggest that the Lakers are viewed as a commodity in this market. An assumption here is that a rivalry of this nature can yield the unexpected. However, Boston has dominated as of late. In addition, the Lakers are travelling 3,000 miles across three time zones to face off with the Celtics in a notoriously hostile environment. They will also have to render the fact that they will have to take on the league’s best scoring defense (94.5 ppg) while dealing with the aforementioned external factors. This in itself sets up the Lakers to be a quality fade opportunity.

It’s difficult to lay points on the Spurs with their injuries, but they’ve played well at home winning four of five with the only defeat coming against the Warriors. They catch a Clippers team who has dropped four of their last five games in a five-game home stand/ They now hit the road likely without the services of SF Danilo Gallinari.

Buying low and selling high is essential; this situation directly relates to the current status of both teams. The Knicks are on a winning streak and the Hornets are on a losing streak. This in itself alters market perception. Yet, despite all of these narratives and the fact the Knicks are getting this one at home, the Hornets still opened as a favorite. This notion speaks out to us be that it is a very likely scenario we are getting a value play on Charlotte by virtue of public reluctance to back the Hornets. We’ll give away the point here to reduce the juice in this spot as well. Charlotte outright gets the call.

These two teams have been OVER machines in recent games with the Nets on a three-game roll and the Suns putting together a four -game streak before their UNDER versus the Spurs. The trend in Phoenix in series also supports an OVER play in this spot. This an astronomical line, but the recent play supports it so I’ll take a small shot.

While Boston has a catalogue of performances that sell its stock and create fanfare, the Hawks own a win that bolsters their viability in this contest. The story should not be called the unleashing of the Mean Green Celtic Fighting Machine but rather How The Hawks Got Their Groove Back. A win against Cleveland on the road for Atlanta will invigorate this team moving forward and put an end to the woes they have suffered along the way. The Celtics may indeed continue their winning streak but there is without question that those wishing to back such a proposition are paying an inflated number to do so. Atlanta was a double-digit dog last in Cleveland and dominated. They are being show little respect here today and the public has dismissed them overall. Quality fade opportunity; take the points.

The Hornets allowed 108 points to the injury depleted line up of the Spurs in their latest. They got absolutely destroyed by San Antonio’s bench in the match and a repeat of that could put some calluses on the scorekeeper’s fingers tonight. The Timberwolves are playing back to back and last time in that situation they allowed 122 to the Pistons.

Usually when one backs the Knicks at home, they pay a premium to do so be that Madison Square Garden is the most famous arenas in the NBA. However, that notion may be null and void in this occasion be that the public loves Indiana in this current market. The Pacers have benefited from being grossly undervalued as a double-digit dog in several occasions this season already. A double-digit point spread is hard to cover for any favorite given the fact there are a lot of moving parts required for success to be attained. In this situation, it is nearly a pick-em and in the flip of a coin you have to like New York with home court advantage.

Golden State has covered back to back games to bring their against the spread record to 3-6, but I’m not convinced that they’ll give an all-out effort each night. The Nuggets have also been a poor bet this season, but they are 3-1 at home and the home team with the lone loss against a good Wizards team by five. Denver has covered four of the last five in this series and I’m willing to bet on them doing it again.

The stock on Detroit is through the ceiling after their most recent performance. Given the fact they are now up against a team that has one of the lowest stocks on the season, the point spread is bound to inflated as a result. Very simply, the Kings are likely accompanied by extra points be that no one would want a part of them any other way. While the Pistons may indeed win this contest, they are likely spotting too much lumber to the Kings here. After all, the Kings took back double-digit point totals in their most recent outing and though they failed to cover, the number presented here is lower in comparison. Thus, the spread is quite suspicious and we cannot trust Detroit to cover here. Take the points.

Boston has had it relatively easy schedule wise during their six-game winning streak, but one thing that they did do is play great defense allowing their opponents an average of 90 points per game over the streak. Oklahoma City has also played well defensively this season allowing just 95.7 points per game on 41.9% shooting and allowing just one opponent (twice) to hit triple digits. Last season these two teams played two games at the Chesapeake Energy Arena with both game falling well below the total line. No reason to think that won’t happen again tonight.

Take the UNDER 204.5

I do think that the Warriors could easily cover this number, but they’ve been so inconsistent this season that it wouldn’t be prudent to lay it. The total though looks appealing. The Spurs held two decent scoring offenses to below 100 points in their only two home games this season and with their offense ranking near the bottom with 98.1 points per game overall, I can see this game coming in at around 212. That gives us enough wiggle room to make this play.

The injuries to the Grizzlies PG Mike Conley and C Marc Gasol and their status for tonight’s game are troublesome to some handicappers, but that’s not where I’m at. I think that they will both most likely play and I think that if they are slowed by the injuries that it will hurt their defense more than their offense in this game. Orlando likes to play up tempo and while that has led to only a marginal profit this season 4-3 versus the total, this is the lowest line that has been hung for any of their seven games.

Given the manner in which the public is approaching this contest, it seems that many are gluttons for punishment. From a textbook perspective, the Rockets would normally be classed as the team with a diminished stock and a value play against a team riding a hot hand. However, the opposite is the fact in this case. The presence of James Harden and Chris Paul on Clutch City’s starting line-up is what many takers are banking on but so far it is questionable to ascertain whether or not this experiment has been working like it should. One thing remains certain, the Knicks are a far better basketball team than many expected and while the market has yet to fully catch up to them we will take advantage of an undervalued club. Take the points.

I called for the Lakers to concentrate on their defensive play going into the Wizards game and they did just that getting a narrow 102 – 99 overtime win that still stayed UNDER the total. They’ve kept to that task over their next two games and are on a three game UNDER streak. The Pistons hung 122 on the zero defense Timberwolves and 115 on the unfocused Warriors this season, but can be held to a low 100 number here and their defense is adequate enough to keep the Lakers on or near the century mark.