Free Weekly CFL Picks Against the Spread
Each week during the Canadian Football League season our handicappers break down all the game match ups looking for the best bet on every match. Visit weekly for our handicapping analysis and CFL against the spread picks.
This week’s contest should let bettors know whether last week’s loss to Montreal was just a blip on the radar or a sign of further trouble for what was perceived to be the CFL’s top team. Calgary has had its troubles with the Alouettes in the past and I am fairly confident that Bo Levi Mitchell and this high-powered offense will get things back up to speed with a SU win on Saturday night that covers ATS.
BC lost its season opener at home to Edmonton in Week 1 as four-point favorites, but it has feasted on the East Division its past three games while outscoring its opponents by a combined 35 points. Lions’ quarterback Jonathan Jennings left last week’s game against Hamilton in the first quarter due to injury and Travis Lulay picked up the slack by throwing for over 400 yards. Whichever player lines up under center this week should be able to lead BC to another win both SU and ATS.
Hamilton has been outscored by a combined 49 points in its 0-3 start both SU and ATS. While the Tiger-Cats’ offense is averaging 20.3 PPG, their defense has allowed at least 32 points in each of the three losses. I do not think they can turn things around that quickly this week against one of the powers from the West, so I am going with Edmonton both SU and ATS.
The RedBlacks have the unenvious task of playing two games in Week 5 so it becomes almost imperative that they get the first straight-up win of the season this Wednesday night on their home field. Ottawa’s offense led by quarterback Trevor Harris has not been the issues so far but a defense that has allowed an average of 30.8 points per game has not helped the cause. Stick with the RedBlacks to tighten things up enough to win this game both SU and against the spread.
Hamilton makes its season debut at home following road losses both SU and ATS to Toronto in Week 1 as a 3.5-point favorite and to Saskatchewan last week in a 37-20 setback as a slight one-point favorite. The Tiger-Cats need to first tighten things up on defense and they also need a strong effort from Zach Collaros on the offensive side of the ball. He has thrown for 431 yards in his first two starts with just one passing touchdown. It could take a few more weeks for Hamilton to get on track so I am going with the Lions this Saturday in a SU road win that covers the three points.
Montreal continues to play tough on defense with a points allowed average of 20.7, but it is going to need some more production from an offense that has failed to score more than 19 points in any of its first three games. The total has stayed UNDER in all three contests and that is the way I am leaning in this matchup. I have Calgary getting the SU win on the road, but things should still remain low and tight on the scoreboard.
The Blue Bombers were shut down in the second half of last week’s 29-10 loss to Calgary after opening their regular season in Week 2 with 43 points against Saskatchewan. Matt Nichols has thrown for 598 yards and five touchdowns in his first two starts and he could be the difference in this one as Winnipeg bounces back this week from a bad loss with the victory against Toronto both straight-up and ATS.
The Roughriders only managed to win once last season through its first 11 games and it has already suffered two tough losses this season in games they did have a chance to win. Sometimes teams forget how to win and Saskatchewan could fall into this category given what we have seen so far. Kevin Glenn has proven that he can take this offense down the field through the air after throwing for 675 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games. He has also been picked off three times. I am not really sure which team comes away with the SU win in this one, but I do like the OVER on the 53-point total line.
Led by quarterback Trevor Harris, Ottawa proved one thing in two-straight games against Calgary; it can put the ball in the end zone. The one thing the RedBlacks failed to prove was their defense’s ability to keep Calgary from doing the same. Toronto will not be nearly as tough of a test, but they are still going to have to keep Ray from throwing the ball all over the field. This is another potentially high-scoring game, but I will lay the six points and take Ottawa at home both SU and ATS.
The Blue Bombers opened their new season last week following a Week 1 bye in wild fashion as well with a 43-40 double overtime victory against Saskatchewan as slight 1.5-point road underdog. Matt Nichols put the ball up 36 times and completed 23 passes for 331 yards and four touchdowns. I am looking for more of the same from both of these offenses this week in a West Division tilt that goes OVER the current 54-point line.
Montreal is going to have to counter with the stingiest defense in the CFL through the first two weeks. After holding Saskatchewan to 16 points on opening day, it manage to limit Edmonton to 23 points in a four-point loss as a nine-point road underdog. The Alouettes are going to need better production from Darian Durant and a passing game that only managed to gain 166 yards in last week’s loss. West against East, I am going with BC to cover the three points on the road as the better all-around team.
The Roughriders limped out of the gate last season with just one SU victory in their first 11 games and last Thursday’s loss to Montreal could signal another slow start this year. Kevin Glenn is Saskatchewan’s new starting quarterback and he ended Week 1 with 298 yards passing while connecting on 31 of his 44 passing attempts. He will probably have to put the ball up that many times this week as well, but in the end I am going with the Blue Bombers both SU and ATS.
Eskimos’ quarterback Mike Reilly was the most proficient passer in the CFL in 2016 with close to 5,500 yards and he got off to a fast start this season with 315 yards passing and two touchdown throws in last week’s win. John White rushed for 104 yards on 14 carries for an average of 6.12 yards per carry. This is just too much production for Montreal to keep pace with, but my ‘best bet’ pick in this matchup is the UNDER on the total line.
Toronto should be riding high following its stunning 32-15 upset against Hamilton as a 3.5-point home favorite this past Sunday. Not to take anything away from Ricky Ray’s 506 yards passing while completing 32 of his 41 attempts, but the fact that the Argonauts gained just 39 yards on the ground in that game could come back to haunt them against a BC team that can beat you in so many ways. Take the Lions and the point as slight road underdogs in this inter-division tilt.
Calgary got a big effort from Bo Levi Mitchell throwing the ball last Friday night with 376 total passing yards and two touchdown throws. The Stampeders scored the last 14 points in regulation to send this game into overtime and I see the momentum from those two scores carrying over to this Thursday’s game at home. Lay the points in this one and bank on Calgary asserting itself as the best team in the CFL right now with a SU win that covers the current spread.
The Argonauts will once again turn the keys to the offense over to Ricky Ray for as long as he can stay healthy this season. The receiving corps are a bit depleted with the loss of both Kenny Shaw and Diontae Spencer and there are still some big question marks with a defense that allowed a league-high 568 points last season. Lay the points on the road team in this one with Hamilton covering the 3.5 points.
BC finished second to Calgary in the West last season and it will rely heavily on Jonathon Jennings to close that gap in 2017. He was the league’s third-leading passer with 5,226 yards, but there was some concern with his league-high 15 interceptions. The Lions were the third-highest scoring team in the CFL last year behind Calgary and Edmonton and I think that both of these division rivals are going to fire things up on Saturday night to take this game OVER the 58-point total.
Ottawa parted ways with Ernest Jackson and Chris Williams as a big chunk of an offense that averaged 27 points per game in 2016. Trevor Harris takes over the reins at quarterback on a fulltime basis with the retirement of Henry Burris and he will have to quickly get up to speed with new receivers Diontae Spencer and Kenny Shaw. It could take a few games for things to gel so I am going with Calgary to successfully avenge that Grey Cup loss both SU and ATS.
Montreal will turn to another veteran quarterback in Darian Durant to try and reverse its fortunes from a 7-11 record in 2016 that once again ended any hopes of a return to the playoffs following a two-year hiatus. The Allouettes have some legitimate weapons in newcomer Ernest Jackson and last season’s leading pass catcher Nik Lewis. Montreal still has the edge on defense in this matchup and I am leaning towards it covering the six points at home to get the new CFL season under way.
It will be a tall task for Ottawa to keep things close this Sunday at BMO Field against one of the most dominant teams in the recent history of the CFL. The only way Calgary loses this game is if it beats itself with turnovers and sloppy play. That has not been the case the entire season so I do not see any reason why that would be the case in the biggest game of the year.
Lay the nine points and go big with the Stampeders to put the finishing touch on one of the most impressive runs to a CFL title this league has ever seen.