Free Weekly CFL Picks Against the Spread
Each week during the Canadian Football League season our handicappers break down all the game match ups looking for the best bet on every match. Visit weekly for our handicapping analysis and CFL against the spread picks.
The Stampeders have not looked all that impressive in their last two season openers, so I am going to take the nine points and take the Tiger-Cats to cover.
The West Division still has the clear edge against the East in overall talent, so I am going to take the Roughriders in Week 1 of the new season to avenge last year’s loss to Toronto in the postseason.
The QB situation is one of the main reasons why I am willing to lay the six points on the road team and take Edmonton both straight-up and against the spread.
Toronto is in its first Grey Cup Championship since 2012 when it beat Calgary 35-22, but this time around you get the feeling that the Argonauts are just happy to be here. The Stampeders on the other hand have some unfinished business after they were stunned by Ottawa 39-33 in overtime of last season’s title game as nine-point favorites.
While Calgary did not finish this regular season in the best of form, I am still going to lay the seven points and take the Stamps to get it right this time around both SU and ATS.
There is no doubt that Edmonton is once again playing at a very high level and while I still have Calgary winning this game SU, I would take the five points on the current spread with the Eskimos covering ATS.
With Ricky Ray playing at top form under center, Toronto’s offense averaged 32.9 points over its final seven games as opposed to a season scoring average of 26.8 points per game. Ray was second in the CFL in both passing yards (5,546) and passing touchdowns (28). His top target in the passing game was SJ Green with 1,462 receiving yards and 10 touchdown catches.
I am leaning towards Saskatchewan in this game given the West’s domination over the East all season long, but the ‘best bet’ pick is the OVER on the 53-point total line
This should be a great matchup between two division rivals that know how to put points on the board. While I am tempted to go with the OVER on the 56-point total line as my top play, I am going with Edmonton getting the SU win on the road.
The season series ended with a one-point victory in each game with the road team getting the SU win. I am leaning that way again with Saskatchewan winning SU to advance to the next round.
BC is playing for pride at 7-10 SU (6-10-1 ATS), but it did manage to snap a recent five-game losing streak (SU and ATS) with last week’s 36-27 upset against Winnipeg as a 6.5-point road underdog. The total stayed UNDER in the Lions’ 28-15 victory over Toronto earlier this season, but I have both teams lighting things to take the total OVER this time around.
Do not go to sleep on the Roughriders in the upcoming playoffs at 10-7 both SU and ATS. They have won four out of their last five games SU including that big upset against Calgary on the road as 10-point underdogs in Week 18. Both teams need to win this game to help their postseason position which should help to drive the total score OVER the betting line.
A late season swoon by the CFL’s most dominant team has led to back-to-back losses to Saskatchewan at home and Edmonton on the road while only managing to put a combined 27 points on the board. Calgary would have probably opted to rest most it starters as the top seed in the playoffs, but I now believe that there is some sense of urgency to end the season on a positive note. While the actual betting line will be impacted with Winnipeg’s injury situation, I like the Stampeders’ chances to cover ATS by making a statement that the 2017 Grey Cup title still has to go through them.
The Tiger-Cats dug themselves into a 0-8 hole to start the season, but then have actually turned things around at 5-4 SU over their last nine games while going 7-2 ATS. In last week’s 41-26 loss to Ottawa as a 6.5-point road underdog, Hamilton’s Jeramiah Masoli torched the RedBlacks’ secondary for 438 yards passing and four touchdowns. Bank on the Tiger-Cats closing things out on a winning note both SU and ATS.
The Blue Bombers are trying to hold onto the No. 2 seed in the West after dropping two of their last three games SU. They did manage to cover in last Saturday’s one-point loss to Toronto as three-point road underdogs to improve to 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Matt Nichols completed 75.8 percent of his 33 passing attempts for 268 yards and a score in last week’s loss and I am looking for another big effort this Saturday in what should be a victory at home both SU and ATS.
The Roughriders clinched the final spot in the CFL postseason with last Friday’s stunning 30-7 upset on the road against Calgary as heavy 10-point underdogs. At 9-7 both SU and ATS, Saskatchewan can still improve its playoff position with a pair of wins to close out the season while getting some help from the teams with better records in the West right now. I cannot see Montreal putting up much of a fight in this one, given just how bad it has been playing since late August. Lay the points on the inflated spread and take the Roughriders to still cover at home.
Ottawa has already clinched a playoff spot in the East Division at 7-9-1 SU overall and it has been one of the best CFL betting teams the whole season at 12-5 ATS. The RedBlacks remain just a half-game off the pace for the division title coming off last week’s bye and they have a 5-2 edge both SU and ATS in their last seven games against Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are playing their best ball of the year, but I am going to lay the points on the home team that Ottawa comes away with the win both SU and ATS.
The Alouettes come off last week’s bye still mired in an eight-game losing streak both SU and ATS. They have not even been competitive in their last six games; getting outscored by a combined 153 points. Montreal has allowed an average of 38.5 points per game during this current eight-game slide and I am not looking for any kind a major turnaround this week. Stick with Hamilton to turn in another solid performance to cover ATS on the road.
The Lions have been headed in the wrong direction since mid-August with just one SU victory in their last eight games. They have also been costly to bettors at 1-6-1 ATS during this slide. BC does have an 8-3 edge both SU and ATS in its last 11 home games against the Eskimos, but I am not betting with that trend this time around. Take Edmonton both SU and ATS on Saturday night.
Toronto is 7-9 both SU and ATS coming off last week’s road loss to Edmonton. The Argonauts covered as seven-point underdogs in that 30-27 loss and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The top play in this week’s matchup would be the OVER on the total line. It has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in Toronto’s last five games.
Calgary brings a SU 11-game winning streak into this contest after slipping by Hamilton 28-25 last week as a 9.5-point road favorite. The Stampeders are still a profitable 8-2-1 ATS during this current winning streak, but I still have to question their motivation in this game against a division foe that desperately needs a win. I am taking the 9.5 points in this one with the Roughriders covering on road.
The Blue Bombers fell to 10-4 both SU and ATS with last week’s loss to Hamilton in a game where quarterback Matt Nichols injured his throwing hand. His playing status for this game has been upgraded to probable, but there is a still a concern for Winnipeg’s top playmaker on offense. Assuming he can go, I would lean towards the OVER in this West Division clash since it has gone OVER in six of the last seven meetings.