Game Preview: Wisconsin Badgers (5-3) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3)
Date: November 2, 2024
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

Odds:

• Moneyline: Wisconsin +120, Iowa -140
• Spread: Iowa -3
• Total: 40.5 points

Recent Form and Key Stats:

Wisconsin Badgers:

• Record: 5-3 (3-5 ATS)
• Offense: 27.00 PPG, Defense: 18.88 PPG (+8.12 point differential)
• ATS Away: 2-1 | OU: 4-4

Wisconsin has had mixed results in recent matchups, coming off a 13-28 home loss to Penn State where they struggled on offense with just 298 total yards. The Badgers’ strengths lie in their ground game, averaging 179.88 rushing yards per game, but they face a tough test against Iowa’s stout rushing defense, which allows only 104.13 yards per game. Wisconsin’s defense has been relatively solid, conceding under 19 points per game on average, though recent performances have shown some vulnerabilities, particularly against high-caliber offenses.

Iowa Hawkeyes:

• Record: 5-3 (4-4 ATS)
• Offense: 29.38 PPG, Defense: 19.00 PPG (+10.38 point differential)
• ATS Home: 3-2 | OU: 7-1

Iowa enters this game with strong home form, having won four of their last five games at Kinnick Stadium. Their offense has been effective, especially on the ground with 209.13 rushing yards per game, led by a physical front line that enables a power run game. However, Iowa has also shown some inconsistency, with a recent loss to Michigan State where defensive lapses allowed 32 points. Nonetheless, Iowa’s defensive metrics remain impressive, particularly against the run, where they rank in the top 10 nationally.

Power Stats Comparison:

Iowa's edge in efficiency is notable, especially in rushing metrics. Their offense has averaged 5.69 yards per rush, significantly outperforming Wisconsin’s 4.63. Iowa’s defense also has a favorable matchup against Wisconsin's rushing attack, as they allow just 3.51 yards per rush compared to Wisconsin’s 4.45.

Head-to-Head Summary:

• Last Meeting (Oct 14, 2023): Iowa defeated Wisconsin 15-6
• Wisconsin is 8-4 SU in the last 12 games against Iowa
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 matchups

Historically, these games have been low-scoring, with four of the last five meetings going under the total. Wisconsin has held a slight edge in recent years but struggled offensively against Iowa's disciplined defense in their previous meeting, managing just 6 points.

Game Analysis:

This matchup is expected to be a hard-fought defensive contest, with both teams excelling on defense, especially against the run. Wisconsin’s chances hinge on their ability to establish their run game against Iowa’s formidable front seven. Iowa’s offense, meanwhile, will aim to exploit their advantage on the ground, where they’ve been more efficient. Wisconsin’s recent struggles against strong defenses and their subpar ATS performance may give Iowa the edge, especially on home turf.