Orange Bowl Total Pick: Florida St. vs. Georgia

Orange Bowl Total Pick: Florida St. vs. Georgia

Jay Horne
Date: December 30, 4:00 pm
Location: Hard Rock Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: UGA -14.5
Moneyline: FSU +460/UGA -600
Total: 44.5

This year’s CapitalOne Orange Bowl will feature an intriguing pairing between two of the top teams in the country when the no. 5 Florida State Seminoles meet the no. 6 Georgia Bulldogs at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. By now, you probably know the story. The Seminoles were robbed of an opportunity at the college football playoffs despite a perfect 12-0 record and ACC Championship. Instead, the committee felt the Seminoles were not a “worthy” advisory in the wake of losing starting QB Jordan Travis due to a season-ending leg injury.

As a result, an undefeated Seminoles team was left out of the college football playoff and will meet a 12-1 (SU) Bulldogs team that also had arguments to be in the playoff race. Despite an undefeated regular season record and winners of the last two national championships, the Bulldogs were beaten by a one loss Alabama team in the SEC Championship which essentially earned the Crimson Tide a ticket to the playoffs instead of Georgia who could have made a run at an unprecedented 3rd straight championship. Like Florida State, Georgia will try to make the best of their late season fate as heavy favorites over the Seminoles when the two teams meet at the Orange Bowl.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

While the Seminoles have every right to feel robbed, the betting line for this Orange Bowl match-up is indicative of how Florida State is believed to match-up against championship caliber competition without their star quarterback. The Seminoles are a whopping 14.5 point underdogs despite their undefeated record and honestly I’m still not sure they will keep this one within the number. The reason the odds are stacked against the Seminoles is because they will be lining up against one of the best defenses in college football. The Bulldogs have posted top 10 numbers allowing just 295 yards and 16.6 points per game.

When you consider that the Seminoles produced just 40 points combined in their two final games of the season without Travis, there is reason to be pessimistic against a dynamic defense in Georgia. Perhaps more importantly, the Seminoles will be without their best talents at the skill positions. Leading rusher Trey Benson, leading receiver Keon Coleman, and WR Johnny Wilson have all opted out of the Orange Bowl, limiting the Seminoles upside on the offensive side of the football. Perhaps Florida State’s best chance to contend in this match-up is through the play of their defense which has been solid throughout the season. However, just like the offense, the Seminoles’ defense also have several opt outs including star DE Jared Verse who has declared to go into the NFL Draft.

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Meanwhile, Georgia has not had a single opt out that has been confirmed at this time. In fact, the Bulldogs received some positive news in the fact that QB Carson Beck has decided to return which means the offense will be solidified at the quarterback position. Beck showed great improvement throughout the year and complimented the Bulldogs’ rushing attack which had a subpar season in comparison to Kirby Smart’s standards. However, Beck and the Georgia passing attack will face an elite Seminoles’ secondary in this match-up. Therefore, the running game may be very important towards setting the tone for Georgia’s offense.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Trends

  • Florida State is 12-0 SU on the season.
  • Florida State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against SEC opponents.
  • Florida State has hit the “under” in 4 of the last 5 games.
  • Florida State is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games as the betting underdog.
  • Georgia is 19-1 SU in the last 20 games.
  • Georgia has hit the “under” in 4 of the last 5 games.
  • Georgia is 7-0 SU in the last 7 games against ACC opponents.
  • Georgia is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games in December.

Florida State vs Georgia Free Betting Pick

I know Florida State is going to want to send a message following a disappointing rejection from the college football playoffs however they are going to struggle in this match-up especially without key personnel. However, I do believe the defense will play well and with intensity. I’m expecting a really low scoring 1st half and will take the under on the overall number.

Free Pick: Take the under 44.5
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