Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Rich Crew's National Championship Predictions
Date:
January 20, 7:39 pm
Location:
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV:
Fox Sports
Betting Odds
Point Spread:
OSU -8
Moneyline:
OSU -370/ND +285
Total:
45
National Championship Under 45 Analysis
Ohio State (-8) vs Notre Dame
Monday, January 20, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET
Atlanta, GA | Total: 45
Monday, January 20, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET
Atlanta, GA | Total: 45
Key Statistical Mismatches
Defensive Efficiency Metrics
OSU Defense:
• 3.9 yards per play (#1)
• 251.4 total yards allowed (#1)
• 61.11% red zone scoring (#1)
• 11.06% sack rate (#1)
ND Defense:
• 4.4 yards per play (#5)
• 298.7 total yards allowed (#7)
• 72.22% red zone scoring (#10)
• 7.92% sack rate (#28)
Drive-Killing Metrics
Third down conversion defense: OSU 34.56% (#27), ND 29.61% (#4). Teams combining for 32.09% opponent conversion rate. Historical championship games averaging 31.2% in last decade when both defenses rank top-30.
Offensive Pace Factors
• Combined rushing play rate: 53.81%
• OSU time of possession: 50.27%
• ND time of possession: 50.42%
• Combined red zone TD rate: 85.42%
Turnover Impact Analysis
Notre Dame's 2.1 takeaways per game (#5) vs OSU's 0.9 giveaways (#19). Previous matchups between top-5 takeaway teams vs top-20 ball security teams averaged 41.3 points in bowls since 2020.
Situational Defensive Metrics
• Combined yards per pass allowed: 5.85
• Combined QB sack rate: 9.49%
• Combined red zone stops: 33.34%
• Average points allowed vs top-25: 15.2
Line Movement Analysis
Opening total 47, sharp money hit under immediately. 73% of championship games since 2015 featuring two top-10 defenses have gone under by average margin of 7.8 points.
Statistical Projection
Expected points per drive:
• OSU: 1.92 (adjusted for ND defense)
• ND: 1.67 (adjusted for OSU defense)
Projected drives: 11.3 each
Calculated total: 40.7
Score Projection
Ohio State 23, Notre Dame 14
Total: 37
Supporting Plays (⭐⭐):
• First Half Under 23.5
• Team Totals: OSU Under 26.5, ND Under 18.5
Ohio vs Notre Dame Betting Recommendations
Factors involved in our Championship Game Prediction:
- Defensive efficiency metrics support ceiling of 41
- Pace factors indicate max 22 combined possessions
- Championship pressure historically reduces scoring by 13.2%
Free Pick:
Take the Under 45
