NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

It's a dangerous spot for an Arizona squad that isn't quite “there” yet. There are a lot of bumps on the long road back toward respectability. And an on-again/off-again team with a wide range like Minnesota is the perfect candidate to exploit an off-target Arizona bunch. I just see the back-to-back road spots being tough on the Vikings. A high-energy Cardinals team in their home-opener will do enough to edge the cover in a good game.

While 4 may seem a little high on the surface, it makes sense. True, the Raiders are at home in the beginning of a crucial season with a lot on the line. It’s just that with the deficiencies they face along both lines of scrimmage, I see what they’re trying to do not sticking as well this week as it might in others. Defensively, I see them having a hard time stopping a fresh Ravens’ offense, while the Ravens’ offense should encounter less resistance. In the end, I think that shakes out to a better than 5-point win in week one. I’ll take the Ravens.

Granted, it seems counterintuitive to lay a number like this against a team that plays defense as good as the Bears do, especially when you're working in a new quarterback. For however much flack the Bears have caught the last few seasons, they have still managed to remain a .500 team, not just some conference doormat. It's just hard imagining this Chicago offense managing to thrive in this road spot. While their defense could make this a close game where having this many points feels like a luxury, I see their own offense as facing an even more uphill battle where points might be few and far between. I'll take the Rams in Week 1 -7.5 at Bovada.

Cleveland out-rushed opponents last year by a 148-111 per-game margin, and teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. The Browns also gave Kansas City all it could handle in that playoff game last January and covered the spread. Yes, Mahomes is great, and he's got an array of weapons to work with, but he doesn't play defense. We expect a close game here, and while the Chiefs will probably win outright, we're taking the Browns and the points for our free NFL betting pick.  

Obviously, there is no such thing as a sure bet, especially in a Week 1 match-up where expectations are volatile. Not to mention, Atlanta still has undeniable concerns on the defensive side of the football. However, Philadelphia has those same concerns on defense, where they have declined every year since their 2017 Super Bowl run. Purely from a match-up standpoint, the Eagles' biggest weakness is over the middle of the field where the Falcons like to attack. The linebackers are a complete mess, and there is minimal confidence in the secondary. All of these factors lead me to believe the Falcons will move the football and scrap away at conversions to create scoring opportunities. I just don't see Philadelphia replicating that formula on the other side of the football. If Hurts turns the ball over, things could get ugly as well.

Dallas is better than what it showed last year; with a (mostly) healthy Prescott and offensive line, and a (hopefully) improved defense, the Cowboys should win nine or ten games this season. Tampa, meanwhile, should be great again and should win this game, but eight points seems a bit much. Dallas might not win this game outright, but we're taking the points here.

On paper, a pick on the “under” may seem counterintuitive, with the biggest offensive sparkplug in the sport in Mahomes taking on the best big-game QB of all-time in Brady. Something just tells me the game will be slightly more subdued than what some are envisioning. For what it's worth, this pair of quarterbacks have gone under seven times in ten combined Super Bowl appearances. I picture enough turnovers, red-zone stoppages, untimely penalties, and overall defensive resistance to make getting to 56 points an uphill battle in this game.

Again, no one would have a right to be that surprised if the Chiefs we all know came out and ran Buffalo a little ragged. That possibility is on the table, even if you’re unapologetically pro-Buffalo in this matchup. But with what seems to at least be a small kink in the Kansas City formula, combined with the recent form of the Bills, this game starts to have a real heads-or-tails feel to it. Even if it seems unlikely that a game that promises this much scoring will fall within the three-point spread, taking points in this one might be a good idea on a team that could easily win the game.

Call me crazy, but I think Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season. Add a little Brady magic, and I like the underdogs here. Take the Buccaneers +3 and also consider the under 52

Cleveland showed a lot of moxie getting to this spot, not to mention a lot of offense. When looking for these little X-factor upset candidates, the Browns check a lot of boxes. They're a wide-range team that can be pretty hard to stop on the high end of that range. There are just certain matchup components within this game that might be too hard for the Browns to buck. I don't think that the Browns' secondary can come up with the right answers. It's going to take a lot of twists and turns in Cleveland's favor to keep this one from getting out of hand. I'm taking Kansas City at home.

Baltimore played +83 rushing yards per game this season while Buffalo played -12 in that department. And according to our homework over the last ten seasons or so, teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Ravens own the better defense in this match-up. Also, the Bills are banged-up on offense. Also, while home teams and favorites own SU and ATS edges in the divisional round of the playoffs over recent seasons, those involved teams with bye weeks. Neither of these teams had last week off. We like Baltimore here for the win on the money line.

I just can't trust the Rams offense in this match-up, nor can I bet against the Packers offense that is playing some of the best football we have seen from an NFC team in years. I believe the Rams offensive problems become the storyline this week.

We expect both Kamara and WR Thomas to return for New Orleans, while Chicago will probably be without a key guy on defense. Also, the Saints own the better running game and the better run defense. Ultimately, New Orleans is a 12-4 division champion, while Chicago is a .500 outfit. We're giving the points here with the Saints. 

To be completely transparent, I was surprised to learn that Baltimore was being favored in this game given their prior loss to Tennessee combined with the fact this game will be played in Nashville. However, I also understand the narrative because the Ravens offense has hung huge numbers in recent weeks averaging 37 points over the last five games. If Baltimore can post another number in that range, I don't believe Tennessee has the firepower to produce that many scoring opportunities. The problem with that narrative is that Baltimore's final five games were against 5 of the worst defenses/teams in the NFL. Therefore, I'm just not certain we should expect the huge numbers to continue.

The Titans defense is not exactly exceeding expectations, but bettors should not forget that Derrick Henry's success on the ground is the equivalent of keeping the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands. Henry has been phenomenal this season and deserves a ton of respect. With that said, QB Ryan Tannehill is having an exceptional season that has mostly gone unnoticed. Tannehill has passed for nearly 4,000 yards and produced 33 touchdowns with just seven picks. Receivers A.J Brown has eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier, and Corey Davis is just 16 yards shy of accomplishing the same goal. I have watched Tennessee's offense often this season, and they are a well-rounded group. If they can just get some help from the Titans defense, I think Tennessee's offense can get the job done yet again. It's definitely not a sure bet because this should be another close game but if you want some extra value; also consider the Tennessee moneyline!