Undoubtedly both of these teams are two of the surprise outfits of 2017. The winner gets to pick where they go bowling and eclipses the prestigious ten-win mark on the season. For both programs this is a significant milestone. Without question, the Owls have the privilege of hosting this affair by virtue of tiebreaking protocol for the conference. Nevertheless, it is hard to beat the same team twice in a season. This narrative aids UNT’s cause. Whilst it is hard to fathom Florida Atlantic losing this game, the Mean Green should not be overlooked. With all things considered, backing Florida Atlantic at home at this point likely results in a premium inflicted upon takers. The public has disregarded this narrative and as a result we have an opportunity at a quality fade against a likely overlay. North Texas with the points is our call.

The Civil War does not look like its going to be much of a battle at all. Oregon has finally hit its stride and comes in taking down one of the up and coming teams in the Pac-12. Most of this can be chalked up to the Ducks starting to get healthy as at one point this season they were bitten terribly by the injury bug. Oregon State would fare better in this contest if they were curating the hosting duties. However, the fact they have to travel to the notorious Autzen Zoo makes this an even more daunting task for the Beavers. With this being said, Oregon State has nothing to lose in this contest and they will treat this as their bowl game. Nevertheless, Oregon wants to avenge last year’s loss and re-establish its will in this rivalry. Oregon State will probably hang around for a quarter but then the combination of Justin Herbert and Royce Freeman will be too much for the Beavers to overcome. While there is always a potential for a backdoor cover, Oregon won’t let up and win convincingly.

Home field advantage is a huge contributor to the outcomes of these games. Given the fact, Arizona State gets this one at home as a dog, we have to like that situation. State has not been home for three weeks, but the last time they were they took care of 2016 Pac 12 South Champion Colorado with little trouble. This contest is one that both teams wait all year to play and the respective fan bases love to get involved in the melee as much as possible. Thus, Arizona will likely struggle mightily here be that they have already had plenty of woes at USC and Oregon, in their last two road games. ASU outright gets the call.

Central Florida is the better overall team in this matchup as one of the top teams in the nation, but a double-digit spread against a fierce conference rival that is also one of the best teams in the AAC could be a bit too much to handle. I would lean towards the Knights at home this Friday afternoon, but I am taking the 11.5 points and the Bulls to cover as my ‘best bet’ pick.

When we see a team with as poor of record as Nevada’s favored by significant margins at the open, we have to take a closer look. The Wolf Pack as a whole have been undervalued this year, displayed vividly in their far better against the spread record. Given how the public has reacted to the opening number, it seems that an overreaction is materializing before our very eyes to create a prime fade opportunity. After all, UNLV is a team that cannot be trusted. The Rebels own an outright win against Fresno State as a three-touchdown plus dog on the road this year but they were defeated at home by the Howard Bison in what was classed as the greatest against-the-spread upset in college football history. A team with such a Helter Skelter portfolio of results is a risky play and thus the number presented is no error. Swallow the points.

This situation sets up the Owls for a huge let-down be that it is a sandwich game against a weaker opponent in between the previous rivalry game and the Conference USA Championship next Saturday which FAU will curate at home in Boca. Chances are the Owls got bigger fish to fry here and they will treat this game as a scrimmage more than an actual competitive affair. We saw a similar narrative take shape with Auburn last week coming in off the heels of their huge win against the then #1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs as they faced UL Monroe on The Plains. With current #1 Alabama on the horizon, Auburn coasted through and failed to cover a lofty number in the process. A similar scenario will unfold here with the Owls. Given the fact they have covered whenever they wanted to (just ask Lane Kiffin), this is one of those spots where they elect not to for personal reasons. Take the points.

While the recent trends in this series have favored the road team ATS, I would have to lean heavily towards Wake Forest covering this time around as a much better all-around team that has played its best football in the second half of the season. That being said, rivalry games have a way of staying closer than they should so my ‘best bet’ pick for Saturday is the OVER on the current 57.5-point line with both teams exceeding their scoring average.

Anytime the public gets on a dog, it prompts us to take a closer look at the favorite be that there is tremendous opportunity to snag some value on a short-priced choice. Houston has all the credentials and ingredients to fit the recipe. As mentioned, this is a team that gave South Florida its sole defeat in 2017. The victory was executed at Raymond James Stadium which is an even more impressive footnote to bolster their viability. However, the result should not shock too many. Not too long ago, the Cougars were the big dog in the American Athletic Conference yard. This venue serves as a great chance to remind the public of this. Navy’s result against Notre Dame would have carried more weight a few weeks ago but since then Irish have proven to be a bit of a paper tiger thanks to their blowout loss at Miami. Navy is likely overvalued here despite a deceptively friendly point allotment. Don’t bite.

If there was ever a scenario that typifies trap game, this would be one of them. Miami has a huge date with Clemson looming just a week ahead in the ACC Championship Game. A College Football Playoff berth is on the line for The U and we can’t help but wonder if they will be distracted by this notion. The Panthers are not a team to overlook as they are a sleeper cell. Pitt has orchestrated upset wins against elite competition before. Just ask Clemson about Pitt’s exploits in Death Valley in 2016. Given the fact a potential bowl berth is on the line for Pitt, the Panthers will have plenty of motivation and feed off an animated environment. Miami should be placed on upset alert.

This should be a great matchup between two of the best passing teams in the ACC. The Wolfpack need the win to keep moving up in the CFP rankings while Wake Forest is looking to enhance its position for the upcoming bowl season. While I would lead towards NC State getting points as the better all-around team, I am going to jump all over the 63-point total line with a play this game easily goes OVER.

Rivalry games produce the unexpected. Thus, on many occasions you can throw out the point spread be that it is irrelevant to both participants in the contest. This is certainly the case here. For the first time perhaps in the history of this feud, the stakes may be more than just bragging rights. A win for Florida International keeps their C-USA East hopes alive if FAU were to stumble once again in their follow-up at Charlotte. For FAU, the Owls win the division if they knock off their arch nemesis. However, FAU is looking to avenge last year’s bitter defeat and there is no reason to suggest they won’t be able to do so. The amount of lumber that is required is questionable. After all, Florida International was spotting double digits last week and now they are taking back such a cushion this week. All because of one result. What we have here is a classic overreaction and sets up a prime fade opportunity against the Owls.

With each win Army picks up, the propensity for them to be overvalued becomes that much greater. This is especially the case when the public takes to them be that they are a well-known name across the college landscape. The problem is the Black Knights haven’t been this good in a long time. Nevertheless, they are up for quite the test against one of the nation’s hottest teams. This one has UNT written all over it be that the market is set to correct Army given its overachievement in the past two weeks.

The sad truth is that in this game one team has to be favored. That team is the team that is the invader and not the host. Louisiana-Lafayette has surprised on several occasions this year when they were a significant pooch so there is no reason to believe they cannot do the same here with home field advantage. New Mexico State’s most noteworthy win? Likely New Mexico but then again that was in a rivalry game where anything can happen. There are too many holes in this team for them to be a road favorite like this and thus ULL garners a look on the Money Line. However, for those looking to be conservative take the points.

Texas Tech’s win on Saturday was discredited by virtue of the fact they achieved it against a team that has just one win this season. Situationally, this scenario sets up as a bounce-back for TCU but we would advise takers to think again. Tech will come into this contest with home field advantage and play with reckless abandon be that their season finale is a tough one to get that much needed sixth win. With bowl eligibility on the line expect the Red Raiders to give TCU everything it has.

Auburn’s demolition job of the then #1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs was bound to create a frenzy and even if the public has been sniffing that out, the number offered is nonetheless inflated through the ceiling. The Warhawks are simply a good football team and for many weeks were running with the top of the Sun Belt pecking order. By no means are we trying to imply that Auburn should be worried about an upset. However, CBS commentators themselves declared the Auburn will likely take a breather as they will be getting another #1 team coming to The Plains, next week. Chances are Auburn will treat this like a dress rehearsal and thus there are way too many points on the table here.

Tulsa is not all that bad on the offensive side of the ball so it could make things interesting this Thursday night, but there is just too much on the line for the Bulls to take this game too lightly. I actually thought the betting line would have opened a few points higher, so I am going to quickly lay the 23 points with a ‘best bet’ that South Florida takes care of business at home both SU and ATS.

In this contest we have an opportunity to take back a likely short-sold favorite. First, we are targeting an overreaction to the Air Force loss last week as that is a significant variable in this equation. Furthermore, with Wyoming’s recent slew of wins there is a great propensity for the public to get aboard the Cowboys at the number on the table. That is exactly what happened. However, this figure is an accurate assessment as the Falcons option offense can effectively keep Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen off the field and limit his chances to generate offense. The Falcons as mentioned are looking to secure bowl eligibility and get the luxury of playing this one at home, setting up a snare for Wyoming and a great fade for us to take advantage of.

Despite the narrative of Oklahoma’s nation-leading offense against TCU’s stellar top-ten defense, the fact remains that both teams can light up the scoreboard. Given the Over/Under presented, the forecast is a shootout in Norman. With such a huge lean on the Under, the Over may offer tremendous upside be that last year nearly 100 points were scored between the two sides. With the implication of a shootout on the horizon, taking the points is also classed as an academic move. This play is further embellished by the fact that the five previous contests were settled by a touchdown or less. Thus, taking TCU with the points is also a value option.

One result can really change the perspective on a contest. Louisiana Tech’s loss at home to North Texas plummeted the stock of this outfit while FAU’s win over Marshall has driven it through the roof. The opening number is something that resonates with us be that it is a typical underdog number geared to entice action on the favorite. So far, the public has bitten and from what it appears an overreaction is certainly taking form. North Texas is a far improved football and thus we can forgive LA Tech for what transpired Saturday. Given the tactics of Owls Coach Lane Kiffin in his clock management against Marshall, it can be derived that Florida Atlantic cannot be trusted spotting this amount of points yet again against a well-coached outfit such as Louisiana Tech.

If there was ever an opportunity to back Ohio State with value, this would probably be it. The stock in Ohio State is at a new low after what transpired last Saturday in Iowa City. Furthermore, the successful upset bid by Michigan State against Penn State is bound to stir a frenzy and cultivate an environment for an overreaction. So far, the public seems to be generating such an event. It is very likely Ohio State came into the Iowa game hungover from their epic win against Penn State the week before and were caught off guard by a feisty Iowa bunch. Ohio State won’t make that mistake again in a game of this magnitude against an opponent whose quality is well accounted for. Ohio State will take care of business.