NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

This is a strange game because Philadelphia is so close to clinching that No. 1 seed but the wise move is probably to sit Hurts. Dallas, meanwhile, is hard to figure; they can be good but they almost lost to the Texans and blew that game last week. Our guess is Hurts plays Saturday, and even if he doesn’t we have faith in Minshew as a back-up. We also like that Eagles defense, which now ranks No. 2 in the League and No. 1 against the pass. Also, we never shy away from betting against the flow. We’ll take Philly and the points here.

Jacksonville rides Big Mo into Thursday night, following that crazy win over Dallas, but the Jaguars were also “good” enough to fall down by 17 points in that one. Also, that Jags' defense isn’t exactly stuffing opponents as of late. Meanwhile, New York’s hit some doldrums, but its defense will be the best unit on the field Thursday night. Also, Wilson wasn’t exactly terrible last week. The NFL is often a funny place, where what’s up one week is down the next, and vice versa, and this game gives us that feeling. We’re betting on the Jets in this spot.

Green Bay is actually still alive in the playoff race, albeit on life-support, while Los Angeles is just playing out the string on a lost season. Also, the Packers own the better running game,  which might come in handy on a cold December night in Wisconsin. Also, the Rams just got lucky last week. We’re giving the points with Green Bay Monday night.

We've been dubious of Miami all season. Hill is probably worth a touchdown per game on his own, but the Dolphins don't run the ball, and their defense ranks on the low side of middlin'. Buffalo, meanwhile, is out-rushing opponents by 34 YPG this season, and teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Bills out-gained Miami by 285 yards (!) back in September; they just pissed that game away. We're betting on Buffalo, minus the points, Saturday night.

Most signs point toward San Francisco here, coming off back-to-back big wins over supposedly quality opponents while Seattle sputters. However, the 49ers just lost Samuel, and they're still operating with a rookie quarterback. We wonder if the Niners might be candidates for a letdown Thursday night. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are still in the fight in the NFC, they're usually well-coached, and they might be prime for a bounce-back effort after sleep-walking through the early stages of last Sunday's loss. We love San Francisco's chances of winning the NFC in a few weeks, even with the rookie QB, but we're betting on Seattle plus the points Thursday night.

By the numbers, these two running attacks are about even, but almost all of New England’s ground production comes from its running backs, while 40 percent of Arizona’s comes from its QB. We prefer the Patriots method. Also, New England owns the better defense. And the Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five road games, while the Cardinals are just 1-5 SU at home this season. We’re betting on New England Monday night.

Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the League in total offense and 2nd in total defense; New York ranks 22nd in offense and 23rd in defense. The Eagles own a three-game winning streak; the Giants haven't won a game in a month. And Philly owns a 115 YPG edge vs. common opponents this season. We're betting on the Eagles here and quickly before that spread gets any steeper. 

The Raiders actually still have something to play for, the Rams, but not so much. Also, Las Vegas rides a hot offensive pairing with RB Jacobs and WR Adams, while Los Angeles is without its starting QB, WR Kupp and DT Donald. Also, the Raiders own the better "performance vs. common opponents" this season. Teams that win the game outright in the NFL this season are covering at an 84 percent clip, so we like Vegas minus the points here.

Tampa Bay doesn't even try to run the ball at times these days, instead choosing to rely on a 45-year-old quarterback. How's that working out? The Bucs are averaged 18 points per game. New Orleans isn't great offensively either, but at least it's a little more balanced. Also, the Saints have played Tampa and Brady tough over recent seasons. Also, believe it or not, after getting shut out last week, we expect a bounce-back performance from New Orleans here. We like the Saints plus the points.

Miami ranks No. 3 in the League in total offense, although just 28th in rushing and 17th in total defense. San Francisco ranks No. 10 in offense and No. 1 in defense. And in match-ups like this, we love betting the team with the better defense. Also, the 49ers are out-rushing opponents by 44 YPG, while the Dolphins are getting out-rushed by 15 YPG. Also, we're thinking San Francisco might win the NFC while we still have some doubts about Miami. We're giving the points with the 49ers Sunday.

Buffalo's won four of the last five meetings between these teams, and the only game it lost came on a bad-weather night last December when throwing the ball was nearly impossible. Also, the Bills are out-rushing opponents this season by 31 YPG, while New England's been held to less than 100 yards on the ground five of its last six times out. Also, while home dogs are covering at a 61 percent rate this season, that sounds like a trend due for a correction. We're betting on Buffalo Thursday night.  

Tennessee is out-rushing opponents this season by a per-game average of 129-82; Cincinnati is getting out-rushed 117-95. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, while the Bengals won this match-up back in January, the Titans basically gave that game away with three crucial Tannehill interceptions. We like Tennessee for Sunday.

Buffalo ranks 2nd in the League in total offense, 13th in total defense and is out-rushing oppo-nents by 27 YPG. Detroit ranks 6th in offense but dead last in defense and is getting out-rushed by 21 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spreads about 65 per-cent of the time. Also, the Bills are 7-3 but could be/should be 8-2 or even 9-1. Meanwhile, the Lions are 4-6 but should probably be 3-7, or worse. Also, Buffalo owns the better yardage per-formance against common opponents. Detroit’s a nice story at the moment but we’re betting the Bills Thursday.

Note: Technical issues cause us to post this game late.

I think the better-prepared side comes out ahead. San Francisco went to Colorado to train itself at elevation, and Arizona did not. The Cardinals should have a hard dime adjusting to the conditions and the 49ers' strong defense.

That's a bad combination here. Give me the 49ers to cover.

Dallas led its game last week 28-14, then lost. Minnesota trailed its game last week 27-10, then won. But the NFL is a crazy place, where what's up one week is down the next, and vice versa. And that's the vibe this game gives us. The Cowboys should be 7-3, while the Vikings, who have come from behind in the fourth quarter to win five times this season, could be 5-4 or even 4-5. Also, that Minnesota defense seems awfully iffy. We like Dallas for Sunday.

Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the League in both total offense and total defense. Half of the Eagles' wins have come by double-digits, and they led the other four games by ten or more, too. Philly owns the much better performance against common opponents this season, and it's out-played Washington three times in a row. Also, the Eagles are probably the healthiest team in the League at the moment. We're giving the points with Philadelphia Monday night. 

Off the top, we expect Allen to play for Buffalo Sunday. From there, we expect a rebound effort from the Bills, following a poor one last week, while Minnesota might be ripe for a letdown, following an emotional come-from-behind effort last week. Also, Buffalo owns the better defense. Also, the spread moved in a good direction. We're betting on the Bills Sunday.

Atlanta, playing the better ball as of late, owns the better quarterback situation, the better running game, and the better run defense. Also, the Falcons are out-rushing opponents by 56 YPG, while Carolina is getting out-rushed by 34 YPG. And so far this NFL season, teams that win the ground battles are covering the spread at a 68 percent rate (91-42). It doesn’t matter who’s playing QB for the Panthers; we’re betting on Atlanta, minus the points.

Baltimore gets the checkmark in the QB comparison and owns the better run game and run defense. And while the Ravens are having some troubles against the pass, New Orleans is down two of its top receivers. Also, playing on the road means the spread is a bit friendlier. We're betting on Baltimore Monday night. 

Atlanta is out-rushing opponents this season by 49 YPG; Los Angeles is getting out-rushed by 49 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time, which is good enough for us. We’re betting on the Falcons plus the points.