NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Kansas City Chiefs (+300): Getting a mega deal and coming off Super Bowl glory might lead some to expect the Chiefs to lose their razor’s edge this season. I wouldn’t be so sure. Nothing has occurred to appreciably alter their recipe for success—a formula that is built to deliver time and again. They might not be as hungry as other contenders on this list, but is anyone really questioning whether they’ll have a good season and be a factor in the postseason again this year? The thing about the Chiefs is that what they do well isn't something that is going to inexplicably go away. Having a winner at QB, a stocked cast of burners and a playmaking defense that is getting better doesn't just suddenly all fall flat without a good reason, and there doesn't appear to be one.

Baltimore Ravens (+325) Seeing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens come up short two seasons ago in the playoffs after a super-strong finish to the season was one thing. Seeing them fall badly to the Titans at home as huge favorites coming off a 14-win season in the divisional round of the playoffs is the last thing we remember this team for. It was definitely a horrible look. But one slipup, however bad it was, doesn't erase the fact that up until that point, they looked to be the class of the league. With an axe to grind this season, something tells me not to count out this group. Granted, even if they have another huge regular season where they’re blowing almost everyone out, it will be nervous-time come the playoffs. But look at it this way, if they had gone on and cleaned everyone’s clock en route to winning the Super Bowl, the price would be so low on them now that it wouldn’t be worth it.

Indianapolis Colts (+1100) Granted, watching Philip Rivers last season didn't inspire much confidence. Nevertheless, a change of scenery and less dysfunction around him could do wonders. It's a really packed roster on both sides of the ball, and Rivers, long hungry for some postseason distinction, will have a ton to work with on offense. Working behind a much better line with more continuity could really take this offense to another level, and I expect some good things from Indy this season. It’s not just the boost they get at quarterback, as other areas of this team are filled with players coming into their own.

Tennessee Titans (+1400) This could be one of the better value picks on the board. A few things we saw last season were not mirages—coach Vrabel’s handiwork with this bunch, Tannehill lifting the offense to new heights, and the late-season rampaging of dominant running back Derrick Henry, who put this team on his back only to be stopped by eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the AFC Championship. I’m not sure what’s behind the sentiment that they will fade this season, but I wouldn’t be so quick to relegate them to the scrap heap just yet. Sure, it might not be easy to see them getting to the big one, as they had to scrap and claw to get into the playoffs, then catching a nice wave of momentum. Still, if anyone else slips and they build on the form they showed late, they look to be a definite contender.

I am going with the Giants as my top pick to win the NFC this year. They have been lying in the weeds since 2011 when they stunned the Patriots in the Super Bowl for the second time and following last year's 11-win campaign the pieces are now in place for another run all the way to the title game in 2017.

It is hard to go against Pittsburgh winning this division again in 2017. Baltimore showed signs of turning things around last season, but the gap in talent between the Steelers and the other three AFC North teams is still too wide, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

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San Francisco 49ers (+400) A lot of what they do well doesn’t jump off the screen and they lost some pieces, along with some contractual disputes emerging with some key pieces on the team. But still, what some suspected could happen someday occurred a little ahead of schedule, as the Niners finally caught some breaks on the injury-front and showed what they can do at close to full-power. I can understand the sentiment that their formula for success isn’t so iron-clad that they can’t slip up, especially with other contenders in the conference making a big push this season. But something tells me our eyes don’t deceive us and San Fran rightfully has earned the right to be considered the top team in the NFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+450) I like what Bruce Arians is doing in Tampa, particularly the way they played at times in the second half of last season. And this was with a QB who threw 30 picks. Get Tom Brady in there with all those weapons and we could see a surge on offense in a big way. That could bring the rest of the team up with him. Any number of things could go wrong with a quarterback who is 43. But this pick isn’t made in the spirit of them simply getting Brady. Their roster looks as strong as it has since they won the Super Bowl all those years ago. Brady has two top receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to work with and it would actually be a surprise if Tampa wasn’t in the postseason making some noise this season.

New Orleans Saints (+500) You have one of the more talent-rich rosters in the sport, along with a Hall of Fame quarterback who has Father Time leaning against him in a major way. The last two seasons have provided ultra-painful moments in the postseason, but the championship window is still open. A healthier Alvin Kamara, along with the newly-acquired Emmanuel Sanders should have this offense clicking, as Brees works behind what should again be a great line. The defense sees Malcolm Jenkins back in the fold and how the pass-defense performs will be a key part of their success. Even if Brees does slip a bit and the NFC South has gotten a little tougher, I see them in the mix late again this season.

Seattle Seahawks (+1000) A little further down the list, this could be the season where the Seahawks put it together. After seeing their defense spiral a little last year, look for that to be a major point of emphasis this season. Their linebacking corps should be tip-top, but their pass-defense has a ways to go—not a good thing in this conference. After they won the Super Bowl, they’ve won ten games in five of the six subsequent seasons. They never really fell off and I think a surge could be in the cards. With some better health on the running back front, in addition to more growth from receivers like young DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson should be in good shape as he makes another run in the postseason.

Sure he's the favorite, but Mohomes stands out as my top play.

It is too easy to concede the AFC to New England and unlike the NBA where the two best teams do meet in the Championship series every season, the NFL is still a league of parity where a few key injuries can derail any team’s season. The Raiders will not make the move to Las Vegas for a few more seasons, but I am rolling the gambler’s dice that they make the move to the top of the AFC in 2017.

I would consider a small play on Miami just in case something crazy happens this year, but the reality of the situation is the New England is not only the best team in this division, it is still the best team in the NFL. This fact tends to drain most of the value from the Patriots’ prohibitive -1000 odds to win a ninth-straight AFC East title just in case something crazy does happen.

It would be hard to go against the Packers as long as Rodgers is in the lineup, but there is no real value in their -275 betting odds to win the NFC North. I would roll the dice with a small play on Detroit reversing its past trends by getting to 10 or 11 wins this year to shake things up at the top.