NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

These two offenses combined to score 38 points last week and are not built to score quickly. The defenses of both teams are more advanced than the offenses and I expect them to control two very mediocre offensive units. Therefore, I feel the Under is the way to go in this matchup.

Philadelphia played extremely well defensively against a good Washington offense holding them to a combined 264 yards. They’re strength on defense is their front seven which should be able to limit Kansas City’s run production which has been the key to their success. The Chief’s injuries play into the Eagles’ strengths with TE Zach Ertz and RB Darren Sproles rooming over the middle and we might see WR Alshon Jeffries break out this week. Kansas City has been brilliant at home the last two seasons going 12-4 straight up, but they’ve managed only a 6-10 record against the spread. Philadelphia may not get the outright win here, but expect them to keep it close enough to get the point spread cover.

Buffalo may seem to have value given the fact they were spotting lumber a week ago. However, if the price seems deceptively good it usually is. The early numbers in this market were designed to cultivate action on the underdog and much of the betting public has followed suit. The scenario creates a great fade opportunity at home with the Panthers. We will go the other way and not bite the hook cast out. Carolina is known for a robust home field advantage and they have entered this season with a chip on its shoulder. In 2016, Carolina failed to make it to the playoffs after it had made a Super Bowl appearance in the year prior. However, Josh Norman would leave town and Cam Newton would get injured. The rest is history. Now, Carolina comes back into the fold looking to get back to the post-season. The Panthers will make an example out of the Bills to showcase to the rest of league and country, the Cats are back. Laying chalk can be a risky proposition but in this case swallowing the points is certainly worth it.

The Titans offense didn’t impress against a dinged-up Raiders defensive unit, managing a meagre 16 points on 355 yards. They’ll face a Jaguar defense that was lights out against Houston allowing just 7 points on 203 total yards. Jacksonville spend Week 1 in the Texans backfield with 10 sacks and finished the day with a plus 4 turnover margin. The edge has to go to the Jags here with this being their home opener and it doesn’t hurt that the home side has won the last six contests in this series. Points will likely be difficult to come by making the UNDER also a strong play.

This game features 2 teams hoping to win their divisions this year. The Vikings looked good last week while Pittsburgh struggled with a team starting a rookie QB, also a team they usually dominate. I figure this will be a close game as both teams will look to establish their ground games early rather than fling it around 50 times. If Minnesota’s o-line can duplicate their performance from last week, they have an excellent chance to stay in the game and possibly win it. I’ll take the visitor this week to get a big road cover.

Neither of these teams appeared to be ready to start the regular season and considering just how poorly they each played on offense, I would look for this game to turn into the ultimate defensive grinder. While the total line at 38.5 points is already set low, I still do not believe that it is low enough to keep this game from staying UNDER the total.

Both of these teams open the 2017 regular season with more questions than answers on both sides of the ball in what should be a close contest for all four quarters. The biggest matchup will be New Orleans potent passing game going up against Minnesota’s shutdown secondary. In the end, I am going with the Saints and the extra half point on the current spread in what I see as a three-point game either way.

Both battles last season turned into a low-scoring defensive grind and that is exactly what I am expecting on Sunday night regardless of which playmakers are in or out of the lineup. I like New York with the uptick in the spread to four points, but the ‘best bet’ pick in this one is still the UNDER on the 47.5-point total line.

Both of these teams have offenses that will struggle in the early going. Luck’s absence leaves a huge void while the Rams have o-line issues as well as a QB who may not be ready for prime time. I expect a low-scoring affair and think the Under is the way to go in this one.

The Ravens have lost 9 players to retirement or season-ending injuries since June 1st and most of those players were starters. The Bengals have issues with their o-line and a few suspensions on defense but I think the key to this game is the Cincinnati’s defense ability to contain what appears to be a very weak offense at the start of the season. Dalton will get hit but he’ll also make enough plays to get the Bengals into scoring position. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matchups with Baltimore and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 as the host.

Like we will see with teams of similar caliber such as New York or Cleveland, the Jaguars are a tough team to sell especially given the fact they are on the road at a 2016 playoff qualifier. Nevertheless, the Jags were within striking distance in both encounters with Houston. The combined margin of defeat in both contests in 2016 was just four points. Despite the eye sore of a record, Jacksonville does have the talent to compete for the AFC South. Not too long ago, Jacksonville boasted a duo of 1,000-yard receivers in both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. That same duo returns along with added playmakers in Marquise Lee and draftee Dede Westbrook. Furthermore, the Jaguars also have the services of highly-touted first-round draft pick Leonard Fournette in the fold at running back with former Jets workhorse Chris Ivory to spell him. Very simply, this team has the potential to be explosive on offense. Thus, there is tremendous equity in taking the points and fading the public in this AFC South match-up.

This is a good game for the Flacons coming off their nightmarish Super Bowl loss. They face an opponent that is really a step down in class and have too many weapons for a defense breaking in several new starters. Their young defense has added some solid rookies and their many rookie starters from a year ago are a year older and wiser. Glennon knows he is just keeping the seat warm for Trubisky and any enthusiasm he had at finally getting a chance to start is over. He also looked shaky in the preseason. I look for a comfortable win by the visitor.

As a whole, the Jets are a very difficult team to sell given the grisly prognostication that surrounds them. Often teams of this nature come accompanied with an inflated point number to entice action. There is a very good chance here that the Jets are taking back more than is required. While the both the quarterback and running back situation in New York remains a mystery, this is a team that knows how to win in Orchard Park. As mentioned, the Jets swept the Bills in the regular season series in 2016 and with that the Jets may have some confidence heading into this meeting. Though the Jets may be projected to own the top draft selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, all teams are 0-0 in Week 1. The Bills have a lot more to lose in this game than the Jets do. For New York, they will come into this game free-rolling. Basically, the Jets know that if they lose that was what was expected of them. If they win, it’s a feather in their cap. As a result, Buffalo will enter this game with far more pressure and thus they should not be trusted with the amount of points they are asking takers to spot here. This market sets up a great fade opportunity.

It would be tough to go against New England on any occasion at home let alone a prime time Thursday night slot as the defending Super Bowl Champions. Some key losses on both team’s offense combined with a pair of defenses that know how to keep opposing teams out of the end zone sets up a golden opportunity to bet the UNDER in this game on the current 48-point total line.

I just don’t see the Bengals wanting this game as much. It looks like they’ll be shorthanded at LB and last week they had no answer for the Chiefs run attack. The Redskins offensive line hasn’t opened up the holes for the running game, but this was a good unit last season and could easily get in sync in Week 3. If Washington can get a running game going they can shred this defense today. Lay the points.

Normally in the Seahawks preseason games there is an obvious edge in the motivation of the head coaches, but in my opinion, that isn’t the case here. The Chiefs have the edge in talent depth at most of the key offensive positions. You could argue that with Russell Wilson the Hawks have the stronger QB play, but the one-two punch of Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes has looked better than the Russell/Boykin tandem. Add in the fact that not only did Seattle lose their starting LT George Fant, they don’t have anyone on paper that looks ready to take over his spot. I expect with the protection issues that HC Pete Carroll will limit Russell’s game time and if that happens the wrong team is favored here.

This is an easy call for me. The coaches have both gone on record saying that the offensive starters will play a half or more tonight. Each team is dealing with some defensive injuries and their lack of depth should lead to improved scoring for the backups. Note: Matt McGloin is 4th in passing yards this preseason with 336.

I like the Bills here. The home field advantage and the extra motivation the new coaching staff should bring makes this an easy call.

The revolving door in the NFC South is poised to turn again with a run by the Saints to the top of this division. Unlike the past two seasons, this race should remain much tighter in 2016, but New Orleans going 10-6 should be enough to claim the crown.

The only question in this division race is can Arizona regain the form that led to a 13-3 record and a NFC West title in 2015, but my immediate answer would be no. There is no real value in betting on Seattle’s -260 odds to win this division, but by default I have the Seahawks remaining at the top of this division in 2017.