NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

San Francisco owns the better running game and the better overall defense, but New Orleans holds the edge in the quarterback comparison and the better run defense. Plus, the Niners are playing on the road at a tough venue for the second straight week while the Saints are working on a few extra days off. We like New Orleans here giving the points.

Things can change on a dime in this league—often without warning or a whole lot of sense being behind it. Chicago is enough of a flawed entity in its own right that nothing with them is terribly bankable, either. But with Dallas, something is broken. It’s not working. It seems odd to say that about a team leading its division when it’s about to play a team that can only dream of getting in the playoffs this season. I think the Bears are closer to being the best version they can be than what is the case with the Cowboys. I'm taking Chicago.

I see some of the inadequacies of the Seattle defense coming to light this week. Between Dalvin Cook and the vital Minnesota aerial game, I see Seattle’s playmaking ability on “D” being overshadowed by their overall lack of stoutness. That’s hard to say coming off a road-game where they allowed nine points. There’s a chance they’re heading in the right direction. I just don’t see it being enough, as a Seattle team that has overachieved runs into a few harsh realities this week against the Vikings.

Green Bay is supposedly the better team in this match-up, but the Packers are inconsistent in the running game, and their defense stinks. New York, meanwhile, has little to play for, but if it can just put up 21-24 points, it might just cover. And we think that number is very possible. It's not easy backing a team that's lost seven games in a row, but we'll take the Giants and the points here.

The loss to Tampa notwithstanding, Atlanta has been a little better. And while they've won just once at home making one wonder how big of an advantage it even is, it's just a little mini-edge that puts them one step close to where they need to be. Not to underplay the revenge angle, but New Orleans has bigger fish to fry than the Falcons this season, so I'm not even sure how much that's going to matter. With Austin Hooper out and Jones having left the last game with a shoulder injury, the state of their aerial corps is a bit concerning and bears watching closer to game-time. Still, I see Atlanta making enough plays on offense against a still-exploitable Saints' secondary, while the "D" registers enough difference-making plays to allow the Falcons to keep this one respectable.

The Rams will be facing not only a team that can provide prolific offense but will also be taking on a tough defense, to boot. But this is really an all-or-nothing spot for the Rams. This game is their biggest regular-season game in two seasons. A win puts them at 7-4, as they will be able to hang their hats on the fact that they beat the hottest team in the league. A loss has them at 6-5 where they need a ton to go their way to have a chance at the postseason. I expect that urgency not to be lost on the Rams, who hang in there with the Ravens at home on MNF.

We still gotta give Rodgers and Green Bay the edge in the quarterback match-up, but San Francisco owns the much better defense. The 49ers stop unit ranks No. 2 in the League, holding foes to just 253 yards per game, while the Packers D ranks 28th, giving up 385 YPG. That's 30 YPG worse than last year, and Green Bay's defense stunk last year! We're siding with San Francisco here. 

Dallas owns the edge on offense in this match-up, with a hot Prescott, but New England holds the edge on defense, allowing just 250 yards per game. And in cases like this, we usually bet the better defense. Also, while the Cowboys are 5-1 both SU and ATS in games against common opponents this season, the Patriots are even better, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. Finally, it seems like over the many seasons of Belichick/Brady whenever New England begins to attract doubt; it comes through with a big W. We'll give the points with the Patriots here.

Seattle's playing the better ball as of late and owns the edge in the quarterback match-up. The Seahawks are also coming off their bye week, and we're guessing they're using the extra practice time to work on ways of getting newcomer Josh Gordon the ball. Meanwhile, missing some key pieces on offense, Philadelphia is only averaging 19 points per game its last five times out. We like Seattle here, for the win.

Even if you don't take recent history too much to heart, Indy in this spot getting points might be the superior overall betting value. I think Houston's defense having depreciated will cost them here, as will the state of their substandard O-line. Whether it's the understated balance Indy has on defense or how well their aerial attack thrives against the Houston secondary, there are specific matchup quirks within this pairing that point to Indy getting points being a sound move. I'll take the Colts.

Granted, the Chargers seem to be at their most dangerous when you're expecting them to fall on their faces. With this being in the high-altitude setting of Mexico City, it just adds another layer of funkiness to the equation. And there could be some big offensive production against a Chiefs' defense that has shown itself not to be ready for primetime. I suspect, however, that we will see a Chiefs' offense starting to resemble the terror of not too long ago—to enough of an extent where the Chiefs get out of Estadio Azteca with the win and cover.

This game stands a good chance of becoming a grinder. New England's offense is really only average at the moment, while Philly's offense is missing some key people. Meanwhile, these are two top-eight defenses. So 3.5 points could come in really handy. We're taking those points with the Eagles.

Baltimore's hot, but Houston's playing some good ball itself. And while the Ravens are favored by less than a touchdown, even while playing at home, it still might be a couple of points too much. We're taking the Texans and those points here.

The part of this matchup that stands out most could be the Steelers’ defense. They have played a huge role in getting this thing turned around, which seemed so unlikely several weeks back. After scrapping and toiling so hard to right the ship, now is a weird time to relinquish their grip. The Steelers’ offensive output is a concern here, but I see some big plays manifesting on the other side of the ball, as the Steelers emerge from FirstEnergy Stadium with the big cover.

This isn't about the 49ers not being tested or being overrated. It's not about the Seahawks having a tougher road to this spot or that they've overcome more. There might be some matchup components on both sides of the ball that could shake out well for Seattle. I see this as being a competitive game where picking a winner isn't very easy. In cases like that, I'm inclined to take the points. I'll take the Seahawks.

These two teams are very evenly matched, and this game could easily come down to a late field goal, one way or the other. And in cases like this, we like the dog and the extra field goal. Also, we expect a bounce-back performance after the loss last week by Minnesota, while Dallas is playing on a short week, after winning Monday night. We're taking the Vikings and the points here.

Detroit is better than its record indicates. The Lions "coulda/shoulda" won three games they lost this season, and they came a yard away from forcing overtime last week. If they can just keep their heads, they can play their way back into playoff contention. Chicago, on the other hand, is a mess. The defense is still solid, but if you can't move the ball until the other team goes into prevent mode, what good is that? We like Detroit here, for the win.

I think this one comes down to dependability and expectations. Betting on the Chargers the last two weeks is the best time to play them—when expectations are low, and they are in a position to overperform, preferably against favored opposition. Some of that might apply here, but the Raiders are at home and typically get more out of what they have. I see this as being a spot for a potential Chargers’ letdown. I’m taking the Silver and Black.

The prospects of facing a rested Dallas team that appeared to shake off its funk with a 27-point win over Philly might elicit some fear from a potential Giants backer. And it should. I think that while the Giants fall short of a winning team at this point, things have maybe started to turn in the right direction for them. And until we see different, they will be a team that can spring a surprise here and there, while being resilient enough in spots like this to cover some spreads. With the Giants' defense making more plays, being at home, and playing a little more-stout overall, I see their offense doing enough to keep pace with the Cowboys on MNF.