NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

San Francisco's recent form on defense suggests that maybe a home Seattle offense can make it work. They did last time, and it all wasn't Chris Carson making it happen. I sense that the setting and urgency will usurp any side-issues, with a well-contested game ensuing. Seattle’s recent defensive form notwithstanding, the home environment and urgency should give way to better form. It's a tough game to pick from a straight-up standpoint, and while the general optimism this week on San Francisco is understandable, I'm inclined to take the points on the home dog in this one.

The urge is to bet Tennessee. But the book knows that. So there is no real debate where the value lies. In a one-game window, it might not mean a whole lot. After all, Houston could have a semi phone-in here, and then the Titans could make all Houston backers look silly. The component of urgency is an angle that tends to be overplayed in week 17 games, and I see a close match where Tennessee might struggle to win, much less cover a number on the road. I'll go with Houston and take the points.

Seeing Dalvin Cook leave with a shoulder injury on Sunday might be cause for concern, but he is listed as probable. I still see their pep on offense being a determining factor in this game, and we might see a Green Bay defense that doesn't look as crisp as it has the last few weeks. After watching Green Bay give up over 300 to Mitch Trubisky previous week, I look for a big game from Cousins, as they cross the finish line a nose ahead on MNF. I'm taking the Vikes.

Dallas is supposedly the better team here, but can they be trusted? Color us dubious. And after last week's great effort against the Rams, the Cowboys are probably candidates for a letdown. Also, Prescott is banged up. Finally, after getting clobbered by Dallas earlier this season, Philly should be looking for payback. We're going with Eagles here.

You never quite know what you're getting with the Rams this season, and while there are some good excuses for the SF cooldown, something also seems a bit amiss. But to not get a win in this two-game homestand would be disastrous for the 49ers' morale, precisely at the worst time in the season for that. I see a full 60-minute effort from the Niners this week, as they pull away for the win and cover on Saturday night.

Buffalo owns the better running game in this match-up, and it's getting the better quarterback play as of late. Also, the meeting between these teams earlier this season came out 16-10 and there's no reason to believe this one won't play out along similar lines. We're betting the Bills here, plus the points.

After watching Jameis Winston put up 456 yards against this Indy bunch on Sunday, I'm not sure how a second road game in a row against another vital aerial attack is supposed to help their predicament. With what they have now, they are at a major firepower deficit to the Saints. The best guys on the Colts offense would struggle to get playing time if they were playing on the New Orleans offense. Granted, the Colts did put up 35 last week, and the Saints defense is vulnerable. But I see better play on "D" along with enough fireworks from Brees and Company being enough to get the Saints over the hump for the cover on Monday. I’m taking New Orleans.

Buffalo owns the better running game, along with the check-mark in the quarterback comparison and a slight edge in the comparison of the defenses. Plus, we expect a bounce-back effort out of the Bills, after taking a tough loss against a tough opponent last week. We're betting Buffalo here.

Green Bay owns the edge on offense but not as much as of late. In fact, the Packers have been held under 200 total yards twice in their last five games and managed just 213 against Chicago earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Bears own a significant edge on defense, and their offense is better recently. Also, these teams have played a bunch of close games over recent seasons. We're betting Chicago here, and won't be surprised if the Bears pull the outright upset.

Again, when going against Baltimore, one can’t help but bristle a little bit. I just sense this is a spot where the combination of the Baltimore hype-train running amok and the Jets’ recent spurt being overlooked combine to make for a decent value spot. The one major drawback is the Jets’ offense and their prospects to thrive against this home Baltimore defense. But I see them doing just enough, with their defense playing well enough to allow them to nick the cover in Baltimore this week.

After last week, it isn’t easy to endorse the Eagles. I just like Carson Wentz at home a lot better and see this offense taking it to a Giants defense that seems to be waning. Guys like Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, along with a playmaking secondary, could feast on the Giants' weak front, in addition to a mistake-prone Jones. I see Wentz being in a decent position here to take advantage of an aerial crew that has another week under their belt against a Giants' secondary that could suffer in this spot. Only so much is certain with this underachieving Eagles' team, but I prefer them in this spot.

Last January's AFC championship game played into overtime, and there's no reason to believe this game won't come down to one late score, too. Also, while revenge is not a reliable handicapping factor, it might play a part here. We're taking Kansas City and the points.

San Francisco owns the better running game and the better overall defense, but New Orleans holds the edge in the quarterback comparison and the better run defense. Plus, the Niners are playing on the road at a tough venue for the second straight week while the Saints are working on a few extra days off. We like New Orleans here giving the points.

Things can change on a dime in this league—often without warning or a whole lot of sense being behind it. Chicago is enough of a flawed entity in its own right that nothing with them is terribly bankable, either. But with Dallas, something is broken. It’s not working. It seems odd to say that about a team leading its division when it’s about to play a team that can only dream of getting in the playoffs this season. I think the Bears are closer to being the best version they can be than what is the case with the Cowboys. I'm taking Chicago.

I see some of the inadequacies of the Seattle defense coming to light this week. Between Dalvin Cook and the vital Minnesota aerial game, I see Seattle’s playmaking ability on “D” being overshadowed by their overall lack of stoutness. That’s hard to say coming off a road-game where they allowed nine points. There’s a chance they’re heading in the right direction. I just don’t see it being enough, as a Seattle team that has overachieved runs into a few harsh realities this week against the Vikings.

Green Bay is supposedly the better team in this match-up, but the Packers are inconsistent in the running game, and their defense stinks. New York, meanwhile, has little to play for, but if it can just put up 21-24 points, it might just cover. And we think that number is very possible. It's not easy backing a team that's lost seven games in a row, but we'll take the Giants and the points here.

The loss to Tampa notwithstanding, Atlanta has been a little better. And while they've won just once at home making one wonder how big of an advantage it even is, it's just a little mini-edge that puts them one step close to where they need to be. Not to underplay the revenge angle, but New Orleans has bigger fish to fry than the Falcons this season, so I'm not even sure how much that's going to matter. With Austin Hooper out and Jones having left the last game with a shoulder injury, the state of their aerial corps is a bit concerning and bears watching closer to game-time. Still, I see Atlanta making enough plays on offense against a still-exploitable Saints' secondary, while the "D" registers enough difference-making plays to allow the Falcons to keep this one respectable.

The Rams will be facing not only a team that can provide prolific offense but will also be taking on a tough defense, to boot. But this is really an all-or-nothing spot for the Rams. This game is their biggest regular-season game in two seasons. A win puts them at 7-4, as they will be able to hang their hats on the fact that they beat the hottest team in the league. A loss has them at 6-5 where they need a ton to go their way to have a chance at the postseason. I expect that urgency not to be lost on the Rams, who hang in there with the Ravens at home on MNF.

We still gotta give Rodgers and Green Bay the edge in the quarterback match-up, but San Francisco owns the much better defense. The 49ers stop unit ranks No. 2 in the League, holding foes to just 253 yards per game, while the Packers D ranks 28th, giving up 385 YPG. That's 30 YPG worse than last year, and Green Bay's defense stunk last year! We're siding with San Francisco here. 

Dallas owns the edge on offense in this match-up, with a hot Prescott, but New England holds the edge on defense, allowing just 250 yards per game. And in cases like this, we usually bet the better defense. Also, while the Cowboys are 5-1 both SU and ATS in games against common opponents this season, the Patriots are even better, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. Finally, it seems like over the many seasons of Belichick/Brady whenever New England begins to attract doubt; it comes through with a big W. We'll give the points with the Patriots here.