Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Week 16 Pick

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It's the game of the year in the AFC East when the Patriots host the Bills Saturday afternoon in Foxboro. New England can clinch the division title with a victory, but Buffalo's still alive and getting a touchdown on the NFL betting line. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
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NFL Betting Odds<br />
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Week 16's NFL betting odds opened New England at -6.5 over Buffalo, with an over/under of right around 39. That spread remained steady in the early betting action, while that total dropped two points to 37.
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Bills vs. Patriots Betting Preview<br />
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Buffalo is 4-1 both SU and ATS over its last five games after winning at Pittsburgh Monday night 17-10. The Bills led the Steelers at the half 7-3, gave up the first seven points out of the locker room to fall behind but scored the next 10 points and held on from there.
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On the night, Buffalo out-rushed Pittsburgh 130-51 and won the turnover battle 5-2, sealing the victory with end-zone interceptions on the Steelers' final two possessions.
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Two weeks ago, the Bills gave Baltimore the best team in the NFL at the moment, a good game in a 24-17 loss. Prior to that, Buffalo won three in a row. At 10-4 overall, the Bills are already in the playoffs, although their chances of winning the AFC East are slim. Still, anything's possible.
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<p>
New England, meanwhile, just needed a 34-13 win at lowly Cincinnati last week to snap a two-game losing skid. The Patriots actually trailed the Bengals 10-7 deep into the second quarter but out-scored Cincinnati 27-3 from there and covered as favorites of 10.5 points.
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For the day, New England actually got out-gained by the Bengals 315-291 and lost time of possession by a 33:27 split. But the Patriots won the turnover battle 5-0 and scored once on a pick-six.
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Two weeks ago, New England lost to Kansas City 23-16, and three weeks ago, they lost to Houston 28-22. And the Patriots needed late rallies in both those games to create one-score finals. New England has been out-gained three times over its last four outings, going 1-3 ATS in the process.
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Nonetheless, at 11-3 overall, the Patriots can clinch yet another AFC East title with a win Saturday and can clinch a first-round playoff bye with a win and a Kansas City loss to Chicago Sunday.
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Bills-Patriots Recent History<br />
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New England owns this rivalry over the course of the Brady-Belichick era, winning 34 of the last 39 meetings outright, including the previous six. But Buffalo's covered the spread the last two meetings. Back in Week 4 of this season, the Patriots beat the Bills in Buffalo 16-10, but the Bills covered as seven-point home dogs.
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Buffalo actually out-gained New England that day 375-224, but a blocked punt returned for a Patriots touchdown in the first quarter made all the difference.
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NFL Betting Trends<br />
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Buffalo is 6-1 SU, 6-0-1 ATS on the road this season.
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Buffalo is 15-10 SU, 15-9-1 ATS, with Josh Allen as the starter at QB.
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New England is 5-1 SU but only 3-3 ATS at home this season.
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New England is 2-5 ATS this season when favored by between three and seven points.
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New England is 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS under Coach Belichick against Buffalo under Coach McDermott.
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<h2>
Totals Report<br />
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Unders are 11-3 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 37 total points.
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Unders are 9-5 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 40 points.
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Unders are 6-2 over the last eight games in this rivalry.
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<p><section></p>
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/nfl/matchup/1110313">Bills at Patriots NFL Match-up Stats</a> </span>
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