NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

On paper, a pick on the “under” may seem counterintuitive, with the biggest offensive sparkplug in the sport in Mahomes taking on the best big-game QB of all-time in Brady. Something just tells me the game will be slightly more subdued than what some are envisioning. For what it's worth, this pair of quarterbacks have gone under seven times in ten combined Super Bowl appearances. I picture enough turnovers, red-zone stoppages, untimely penalties, and overall defensive resistance to make getting to 56 points an uphill battle in this game.

Again, no one would have a right to be that surprised if the Chiefs we all know came out and ran Buffalo a little ragged. That possibility is on the table, even if you’re unapologetically pro-Buffalo in this matchup. But with what seems to at least be a small kink in the Kansas City formula, combined with the recent form of the Bills, this game starts to have a real heads-or-tails feel to it. Even if it seems unlikely that a game that promises this much scoring will fall within the three-point spread, taking points in this one might be a good idea on a team that could easily win the game.

Call me crazy, but I think Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season. Add a little Brady magic, and I like the underdogs here. Take the Buccaneers +3 and also consider the under 52

Cleveland showed a lot of moxie getting to this spot, not to mention a lot of offense. When looking for these little X-factor upset candidates, the Browns check a lot of boxes. They're a wide-range team that can be pretty hard to stop on the high end of that range. There are just certain matchup components within this game that might be too hard for the Browns to buck. I don't think that the Browns' secondary can come up with the right answers. It's going to take a lot of twists and turns in Cleveland's favor to keep this one from getting out of hand. I'm taking Kansas City at home.

Baltimore played +83 rushing yards per game this season while Buffalo played -12 in that department. And according to our homework over the last ten seasons or so, teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Ravens own the better defense in this match-up. Also, the Bills are banged-up on offense. Also, while home teams and favorites own SU and ATS edges in the divisional round of the playoffs over recent seasons, those involved teams with bye weeks. Neither of these teams had last week off. We like Baltimore here for the win on the money line.

I just can't trust the Rams offense in this match-up, nor can I bet against the Packers offense that is playing some of the best football we have seen from an NFC team in years. I believe the Rams offensive problems become the storyline this week.

We expect both Kamara and WR Thomas to return for New Orleans, while Chicago will probably be without a key guy on defense. Also, the Saints own the better running game and the better run defense. Ultimately, New Orleans is a 12-4 division champion, while Chicago is a .500 outfit. We're giving the points here with the Saints. 

To be completely transparent, I was surprised to learn that Baltimore was being favored in this game given their prior loss to Tennessee combined with the fact this game will be played in Nashville. However, I also understand the narrative because the Ravens offense has hung huge numbers in recent weeks averaging 37 points over the last five games. If Baltimore can post another number in that range, I don't believe Tennessee has the firepower to produce that many scoring opportunities. The problem with that narrative is that Baltimore's final five games were against 5 of the worst defenses/teams in the NFL. Therefore, I'm just not certain we should expect the huge numbers to continue.

The Titans defense is not exactly exceeding expectations, but bettors should not forget that Derrick Henry's success on the ground is the equivalent of keeping the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands. Henry has been phenomenal this season and deserves a ton of respect. With that said, QB Ryan Tannehill is having an exceptional season that has mostly gone unnoticed. Tannehill has passed for nearly 4,000 yards and produced 33 touchdowns with just seven picks. Receivers A.J Brown has eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier, and Corey Davis is just 16 yards shy of accomplishing the same goal. I have watched Tennessee's offense often this season, and they are a well-rounded group. If they can just get some help from the Titans defense, I think Tennessee's offense can get the job done yet again. It's definitely not a sure bet because this should be another close game but if you want some extra value; also consider the Tennessee moneyline!

Even the most-ardent Bills backer would have to admit the Colts have a certain indefinable quality that could make them more of a handful than what you see on paper. Between the coaching staff and Rivers, there's a lot of IQ and experience on that sideline. If something about the Bills is off, the Colts will pounce. I just think the Bills' story as a rising contender is more-complete, something that has been building the last few years and really starting to culminate into something major. How far they go remains to be seen, but I see them getting out of this with the win and cover on Saturday.

As you can see from my analysis above, there are far more concerns for Washington in this week 17 match-up. The availability of Smith will be very important towards improving those concerns mainly because Smith has been much better at protecting the football. The turnover battle will be extremely important in this match-up and could determine the outcome. However, I simply see far more realistic possibilities for the Eagles pulling this victory out. Washington has seemingly more motivation for this game and that seems to overvalue the public’s betting perception towards Washington’s favor. In reality, the Eagles have the more probable paths to victory with Hurts at quarterback and I think that is the play here.

It's not easy to make a spreads pick, even with all things considered. With Terry McLaurin likely out and Antonio Gibson iffy, the Washington offense is a reasonable cause of concern. But maybe they're lucky to be playing another team from what has been a highly-dysfunctional NFC East. Philly's offense will have more viable weaponry available for this game, but they're still an offense that doesn't fire often. And against this Washington defense, I suspect it will be a grind for Philly. I see Washington crossing the finish line a nose ahead for the big win in a low scoring game.

It appears the worm has turned in this rivalry. Buffalo is a division champion with a seemingly very bright future, while New England is probably playing out the end of its dynasty. The Bills are still chasing good seeding for the playoffs while the Patriots have little to play for, other than perhaps pride. Also, New England has allowed 436 yards on the ground over its last two games. And while the Patriots nearly beat Buffalo two months ago by rushing for 188 yards, we doubt they'll do that again. We're betting the Bills here, minus the points.

Tennessee is tough. They're a well-coached team that brings it every week. They can make some of their weaknesses show less when everything is clicking. But with the top seed in the offing in a season where it means more, the Packers might have a little more of an ax to grind in this particular matchup. I see a well-contested game where the Packers get a little separation late to get the win and cover at Lambeau on Sunday night.

These teams are headed in different directions as of late, and we usually love betting hot against cold.  However, we still believe Miami's offense is better with Fitzpatrick rather than Tagovailoa. Yes, the Dolphins are winning and covering with Tago, but that's been mainly thanks to the defense. Miami produced just 13 points against Denver a few weeks ago, 20 against the Jets, 19 against Cincinnati, and had zero at halftime last week. Las Vegas, meanwhile, may be 1-4 over its previous five games, but it was right in three of those losses. And even if Carr can't play, Mariota looked good last week. Finally, we're never shy about betting against the public flow. We'll take the Raiders and the points here.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is coming off, arguably, his best performance of his career. In last week's shootout with Philadelphia, Murray passed for 400 yards with three touchdowns and one pick. Murray also added another 29 yards and one touchdown on the ground. Meanwhile, WR DeAndre Hopkins was unstoppable with nine grabs for 169 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, we should not expect those same numbers this week. However, I don't see clear answers for stopping either Murray or Hopkins with the 49ers' current personnel. The Cardinals also have other options to attack on the offensive side of the ball, with Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk, and others waiting for their opportunity for a big play. Overall, there are just too many options for Arizona to have success this week against an opposing offense that is having trouble keeping players on the field. Add in the circumstances and implications Arizona has riding on this game; I just can't see it any other way besides the Cardinals cruising to victory.</p>