The Red Sox pitching has been solid in their four game win streak and starter Eduardo Rodriguez has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in six straight starts. However, Rodriguez got lit up for five runs in 4 1/3 innings in his latest against the Orioles and brings an unenviable 5.81 road ERA into this game. His counterpart Yovani Gallardo also had a poor outing in his latest against today’s opponent getting lit up for five runs over five innings at Fenway back in April. He does pitch much better at home with a 2-0 record and 3.33 earned run average. The Orioles have a big scheduling edge with the Red Sox flying from Arizona to Cleveland on Sunday and then last night to Baltimore to take on the Birds today. That’s enough for me to back the team with the best home record in baseball

Miami has owned this series as of late taking all three earlier this season at home and the last two in 2015 for a five game series win streak. They may be in tough tonight against the Reds with lefty Brandon Finnegan on the mound. The marlins hit left-handed pitching well but Finnegan has had great stuff in recent outings allowing just three runs in his last three starts covering 18 innings. Miami starter David Phelps hasn’t recorded a quality start in his last five pitching five or less innings in each one. I’ll take a shot on the home team who is profitable 7-3 in their last ten at the Great American Ball Park.

I look to the Tigers today to get the job done today. Starter Michael Fulmer hasn’t faced the Rangers, but he comes into this game ultra-sharp with six quality starts over his last seven games and has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in nine of his last ten outings.  A.J. Griffin started the season out on a hot streak, but has failed to register a QS in his last 10 and didn’t look good in a start against the Detroit back in May when they got to him for three runs in just 2 2/3 innings in a 10-5 Tigers win. Texas has owned this series over the last ten getting the victory in eight of the games, but Detroit has shown signs of breaking out at the plate and the pitching matchup is favorable. 

Matt Shoemaker has been lights out good against the Tribe striking out 31 batters in 22 innings over three career starts. He has however had his troubles on the road this season going 3-8 with a 4.89 ERA and with the way that the Indians are swinging the bats they may turn the tables on him this time around. Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger who has yet to record a quality start in four lifetime starts and brings a bloated 6.97 ERA into this game. Dating back to last season six of the last seven in this series have gone over the total including three of four this season and that's where my money will be tonight..

It’s been a good run for those fading me this week, but I believe that I can get back on track tonight. The Rays’ starter Chris Archer has been pitching well as of late with four consecutive QS and while the Rays have lost his last four against the Yankees he has pitched well in his career against them racking up nine QS in his last ten starts versus NY. He’ll need to get some run support and I don’t think that will be a problem with Sabathia on the mound. Tampa Bay batters have feasted on his offerings hitting a combined .364 in 107 at bats. Rays score enough to get the victory tonight. 

The Orioles have scored a total of three runs in this series and have scored three or fewer is six of their last eight games. Surprisingly, those offensive numbers are better than the Athletics who have scored a combined nine runs in their last six matches. With the lack of scoring by both clubs I believe the UNDER holds some value even with Andrew Triggs making just his second start of his career. 

The White Sox Quintana has pitched well since early July recording five quality starts in six outings. He has pitched OK against the Royals with three QS in his last five starts, but CWS dropped all but one of those games. Kansas City counters with Ian Kennedy who has been sharp in his last two, but was lit up for seven runs in 5 2/3 in his last start against the White Sox back in early June. All four games at Kauffman Stadium this season have exceeded the total line and that’s what I’m going to bet on that continuing today. 

The Astros have surpassed three runs in a game just once in their last 10 games a stretch where they have averaged 1.8 runs per game. Their hitters don’t excel against lefties and they face one tonight in Hector Santiago who has held them to two or fewer runs in his last five starts against them dating back to 2015. Mike Fiers gets the ball for the Houston, and while he has pitched better as of late with three straight quality starts his last against Minnesota was poor allowing four runs in 4 2/3 innings back in June. Fiers has had his difficulties on the road this season with an ERA of 5.83 and WHIP of 1.60. It’s been a rough go over the last few days, but I feel confident that the Twins can get it done tonight. 

Both of tonight’s starters are having strong season’s, but I prefer the overall work the Tigers’ Michael Fulmer over that of the Mariners’ Hisashi Iwakuma. Fulmer has been exceptional on the road with a 7-2 mark and 2.88 ERA with a WHIP 1.18. He has only 4 1/3 innings under his belt against Seattle, but he pitched well allowing one run on three hits. Iwakuma has a 7-2 W/L record at Safeco Field and has allowed zero runs in his last two home starts. He does however have poor historical stats against the Tigers’ lineup with the current roster hitting a lifetime .361 against him. I look for Detroit to have no problem scoring tonight so I’ll back the visitor on the moneyline and play the OVER.

Adam Conley has pitched well overall in his second season and he has pitched adequately on the road with a 3-3 W/L record and 3.92 earned average. However, he hasn’t pitched in Colorado where many pitchers struggle and the Rockies are one of the better hitting clubs against left handed pitching. Jon Gray gets the ball for the home club. Gray has yet to take a loss at home going 5-0 with a 4.00 ERA. He took on the Marlins in Florida back in June and got saddled with a loss, but pitched well allowing two earned runs over six innings. It’s a big number today, but I’ll lay it on the Rockies who have a big edge in form and on the mound.

The Angels’ Tyler Skaggs has been impressive in his two starts since his return and faces a team that doesn’t excel against lefties. The Mariners Taijuan Walker has been sharp all season at home with a 2.75 ERA and 66.7 QS ratio and had a good one in his most recent against the Angels last September. The number is low, but I think there is still some value in the total. 

Both of tonight’s starters have good numbers against their opponent’s current roster, but Michael Pineda has faced just two batters who have a combined 11 at bats. The Indians’ starter Josh Tomlin has been exceptional on the road with an 80% quality start ratio with a 6-1 W/L mark and 2.75 ERA. Pineda has pitched marginally better at home this season, but 3-4 with a 4.95 are not numbers that lead me to having much confidence in his ability to get it done tonight. The Yankees have lost six of their last eight scoring three or fewer runs in all six of their defeats and that’s where I think their scoring level will be in this match. 

In the first three games of this series the teams have combined for 10 runs. Each game is a separate event, but by the way the two teams have been hitting and the scheduled starters it’s logical to predict much of the same tonight. Jays’ starter J.A. Happ has held the opposition to one or fewer runs in four of his last five and has a 70% QS ratio on the road this season. The Astros Mike Fiers has struggled at times this season, but has been good at home for the most part with a very respectable ERA of 3.39. These two teams could of course play long ball today and blow this up, but my money is going on the underside of total. 

White Sox starter Chris Sale has back to back quality starts with both coming on the road, but he hasn’t pitched as consistently in the last couple of months. He’s allowed four or more runs in four of his last nine starts after holding the opposition to three or less in his first nine to open the season. The Tigers rookie starter Michael Fulmer has been brilliant at home this season, but he rarely goes deep into games. The Detroit bullpen is certainly not a strength with a 4.30 ERA ranking near the bottom in the AL in that category. The Tigers have been wearing out the scorekeeper tearing it up for 70 runs in their last ten games and the White Sox not known for their offense have scored four or more runs in eight of the last nine in this series. They got to Fulmer back in Chicago for four runs in five frames of work. 

Yu Darvish got a late start to the season and Dylan Bundy has only three career MLB starts, but both have pitched adequately and have excellent strikeout to walk ratios. Neither offense has been running on all cylinders making me believe that the total offers the best bang for your buck tonight at Camden yards.

The Brewers have been getting it done with pitching allowing over four runs in just one of their last seven with a combine average of 3.42 runs per game over that stretch. Today’s starter Jimmy Nelson was the lone starter to not pitch well for Milwaukee in the seven games, but he had been pitching well holding the opposition to two or fewer runs in five of his six previous starts. Nelson has had success against the Padres in his career allowing four earned runs in three starts covering 19 2/3 innings including eight innings back in May where he gave up five hits and two runs. Jarred Cosart will make his first start for San Diego and he’s coming off of his best start in a while shutting out the Phillies over five innings. He may be able to repeat that performance today, but the odds are against that with Cosart recording just one quality start in his last 10 outings. The Brewers are poor on the road, but they did take two of three the last time they were here in 2015 and they are the hot team here with on paper the superior starter and better bullpen. 

The Yankees send out Michael Pineda to try and put an end to a three game losing streak that has seen their offense contribute just five runs. Pineda is coming off of back to back strong outings, but faces a team today that has had his number. The expected roster of the Rays has a career .320 batting average against him with a crazy .630 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay will have rookie lefty Blake Snell on the mound. Snell has strung together three straight quality starts and has one career outing against the Yanks where he pitched well holding them to one run on two hits over five innings striking out six. No reason to think that the Rays can’t complete the sweep. 

Drew Pomeranz will make his third career start for the Red Sox and he’s coming off a solid outing against the Tigers at home. He’s held the Angels batters to a .226 batting average in limited at bats with 20 of the 31 by Pujols and Trout. The Angels hit lefties well and he did give up four runs in five innings last season when visiting in an A’s uniform. Los Angeles starter Hector Santiago has allowed more than three runs just once in his last seven and shut out Boston over six innings in early July in a 21-2 laugher. 

Both starters are coming off decent games which just happened to be against today’s opponent. Neither team has been lighting it up with the Royals scoring two or fewer in four of their last five and the Rangers were held to two or fewer in two of the three games against last week against Kansas City. The batters may have more success this time around and It can blow up quickly in Globe Life, but the numbers support a play on the UNDER here. 

You’d need a crystal ball to know what type of game the Orioles’ starter Ubaldo Jimenez will pitch tonight, but his last two were dreadful with a combined 11 earned runs allowed over 5 2/3 innings. He has owned the Twins throughout his career and had one of his better outings this season against them back in April pitching a sharp seven innings allowing one run. Kyle Gibson has been mediocre all season which is a step up from Jimenez and with the Orioles recent pop gun offense 2.77 runs per game since the All-Star break, he should be good enough to help the Twins get the money.