NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

New York put on a big performance last week in upsetting Cincinnati, but in our book, that just makes the Jets great candidates for a letdown in this spot. Also, New York is getting out-rushed by 39 yards per game. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is out-rushing opponents by 13 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So we're betting the Colts here, minus the points.   

It's a delicate balance in this game to decide what counts more—what we've actually seen with our own eyes this season counterbalanced against what you assume should happen. And despite a horrific start, being at home against the Giants in a spot where they really need something good to happen would seem to shake out as a good spot. And any apathy or courtesy that the Giants could normally expect in a spot like this won't be at play. I see the Chiefs looking to make a point. And that's a dangerous KC bunch. I'll take the Chiefs

Clicking on Jacksonville on the road and out-of-conference isn't the easiest move to make. For Seattle, they're probably figuring that it would be hard to soldier on if they can't beat the Jags at home. I'd expect some pride to kick in on that sideline. And with no game-breaking receiving talent on Jacksonville, maybe Seattle can handle the narrower scope on the Jaguars offense. But without Wilson, Seattle has become Jacksonville in a way. And in a game that's tough to pick a winner, I'm inclined to take the points.

The problem with the difficult match-up for Atlanta is that it is not a reason to bet on the Panthers. We just watched the Carolina offense produce a measly 3 points in last week's 25-3 loss to the New York Giants, who were just 1-5 SU going into that contest. Personally, I have absolutely no faith in the Panthers' offense with Darnold behind center, especially with McCaffrey still on the shelf. As a result of those two premises, I believe we have ourselves a defensive battle that has serious value pivoting against the 47 point total. The Panthers have hit the "under" in eight of the last ten games, and I think that will be the play again this week!

Both these teams can run the ball, but Tennessee is out-rushing opponents by 52 yards per game, Indianapolis by 17 YPG. Also, Colts RB Taylor is a little banged up. Also, the Titans just seem to have Indy's number recently. Finally, we never mind betting against the public flow. So we're taking Tennessee here, plus the points. 

Both these teams are a bit banged-up so bettors might want to check late injury reports before getting down on this game. QB Murray gets a lot of ink for Arizona, but the Cardinals also rank fourth in the league in defense, and they're out-rushing opponents by 21 yards per game. Mean-while, Green Bay is getting out-rushed by 19 YPG. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So while we don't like going along with the betting flow, we're giving the points here with Arizona.  

Granted, this Seattle team without Wilson might not be able to maintain as well in this spot as they did against the Steelers last week. Still, they're at home, facing a highly imperfect Saints offense in a game where the points might not be coming fast and heavy. Perhaps Smith can take advantage of an exploitable Saints' pass-defense, with the Seahawks "D" able to contain Winston's aerial attack, which might be without its leading receiver. It's not a feeling that evokes the most comfort, but I'll take the Seahawks and the points this week.

Not to rule out the very real possibility that the time off helped the 49ers in some way, I just see a more intact Colts team that picked up some momentum the last few weeks being in a good spot getting points in this matchup. The Colts can run the ball, take to the air, and face a decent defensive spot against a San Fran offense that is down to just a few viable weapons. With Indy getting points while being healthier, in better form, and with more offensive variety at their disposal, they would appear to rate a solid choice this weekend. I’ll take the Colts.

I'm fading the public here as I expect game-script will play into a running clock. I don't have enough trust in either offense to hit the total. Take the under 48.

Kansas City is still crazy dangerous on offense, averaging 434 yards per game, and while they're not great defensively, neither is Tennessee. Also, the Titans might be ripe for a letdown this week, following a huge effort Monday night, and they're banged up. We like the Chiefs here, giving the points on the road.

Cleveland is down five key guys, and possibly more; maybe the Browns should file for a contin-uance. Denver's hurting, too, just not as much. However, we like Keenum, and we like that Cleveland defense, and sometimes when things get tough, teams rally around themselves and give good efforts. We won't be surprised if the Browns do something like that here. We like Cleveland, a home team giving a short spread, for our free football pick for Thursday night.

There is admittedly a lot of ammo for Pittsburgh backers in this out-of-conference road spot for a Wilson-less Seattle squad facing a major team crisis. Getting behind Geno Smith in 2021 behind a dicey line and a banged-up run game isn't the easiest thing to do. I just see the Steelers being a team where it won't be that hard to get them to revert to prior form, in which case covering numbers becomes a tall order for them. I think the Seahawks keep this one close and cover the spread.

Both these teams are banged-up, Cleveland a bit more than Arizona, so bettors might be wise to check injury updates before getting down on this game. Ultimately, the Cardinals impress us with their toughness and Murray, while the Browns still seem to lack something. We love Cleveland's running game, but they might be without their top two backs. And we give Murray the edge in the quarterback match-up. This should be a close one and three, and a hook might come in real handy. We like Arizona and the points here, and they might win this one outright.   

Assuming Darnold does not have another disastrous performance, the Panthers are the play here as they will benefit strongly from the match-up and stylistic schemes. Expect a slow-paced game with the Panthers pulling out the victory!

Tampa seems to toy with some opponents; they let the Falcons and Dolphins hang around for three quarters, then hit the accelerator and won by huge margins. And they're really dangerous on offense with Brown getting integrated. Philadelphia, meanwhile, just pulled an upset on the road, which in our mind makes it an excellent candidate for a letdown this week. We're betting the Bucs here, and we're getting down early before that spread goes up any more. 

This isn't about being a believer in Carson Wentz or even the Colts in general, but they're not a bad team. There isn't anything they're terrible at. There may be games where their defense falters, or the offense doesn't carry its share of the load. But they're a competent team that got a helpful taste of victory last week and could be getting a little better. I see this being a tough game, with the Colts covering the spread

I'm banking on the Cowboy's defense to help them extend the margin and get the cover.

Taking the 49ers here is a dicey spot with the uncertainty surrounding some injuries and just their current uneven form. They're in an urgent spot where falling under .500 in this strong of a division would put them in a tenuous spot. They really need this one, and while desire isn't enough on its own to overcome a better team and numerous injuries, I see this being a tough divisional game where the Niners find enough answers to keep this one within reach. I'll take the 49ers.

Both these teams are a little banged up at the moment; bettors might be wise to wait for more up-to-date injury information before getting down on this game. Ultimately, we just see Green Bay as vulnerable to a letdown this week, following two-up efforts the last two weeks, while we ex-pect a sharper performance from Cincinnati after they sleep-walked through a good part of last week's game. Joe can sling it pretty good, and that Packers' defense can be had. We're betting the Bengals here and won't be surprised when they win this game outright. 

Los Angeles suffered a letdown last week, following the big win over Brady and the Bucs, but in our mind, that just makes them good candidates for a bounce-back effort this week. On the other hand, Seattle won a game last week in which it got out-gained by over 200 yards. In our minds, that result puts the Seahawks on our "fade" list for this week. Plus, LA just seems to own the edge on Seattle over recent seasons. We like the Rams here.