NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Anyone who has seen Carolina in recent weeks won't find this an easy move to make. Their offense has been awful, they can't get solid QB play, and there isn't a lot of overall energy on that side of the ball. But between Murray being gimpy and some other personnel issues on Arizona and the fact that the Carolina defense is seldom truly run over, it makes this spread seem a little daunting to an Arizona team that is dealing with some things. With some production from a healthier McCaffrey, I see the Panthers vaguely hanging in there, at least to the point where they cover the spread. I'll take the Panthers in this one with the points.

Los Angeles is supposedly the up-and-coming team here, while Minnesota looks like it might be playing for a lame-duck head coach. The Chargers are also coming off a good road win while the Vikings just blew a game they could have won - for the second week in a row. Combine those two things, and we're a little surprised the line on this game isn't three points higher. But the NFL is a crazy place, where what's up one week is down the next, and vice versa, and that's the feel-ing we get looking at this game. We also like Minnesota's run game here against a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last against the run. So we like the Vikes, and they might win this game outright.

I really like the match-up advantages Dallas provides in this game and believe there will be some extra motivation following last week’s loss. I’m taking 'Boys

Baltimore is fighting for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, while Miami looks like it’s playing out the string on another lost season. And regardless of who plays QB for the Dolphins, that offensive unit stinks. Also, the Ravens are out-rushing opponents this season by 70 yards per game, while Miami is getting out-rushed by 36 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We’re betting Baltimore here, minus the points. 

Usually, an iffy Steelers team such as this wouldn’t be that appetizing as a betting choice laying a number like this. They might be on a little roll, which only serves to prove they’re better than teams who are showing some of the worst form in the whole conference. That doesn’t make them good. But despite some potential growth from Fields, it’s hard to locate sources of optimism on this Bears’ team. Whether discussing the support Fields gets around him or the fact that their defense is receding, it’s enough to make them a less-than-thrilling choice, even getting points against a super-flawed Steelers’ squad. I’ll take the Steelers.

Kansas City just is not the team it was the last couple of seasons. The Chiefs can beat teams like the Giants, Washington, and Eagles, but they didn't look good against the Titans, Bills, or Chargers. As for Green Bay, apparently, we've got a lot more faith in Love, Coach LaFleur, and the Packers running game than most. We like Green Bay plus those points here.

I'd look for the Cardinals to really go out of their way to not be one of those teams that starts fast, only to fade into the night as the rest of the season unfolds. San Fran has their own list of concerns, and falling to 3-5 in this division could be the final nail in a season where there has already been an inordinate amount of bad fortune. The win against Chicago last week was nice, but I think the Cardinals perform better here than they did in the first game, as they get out of the Bay Area with the win and the cover on Sunday.

With the expectation that Dak returns combined with a decimated Denver defense, I like the Cowboys to keep their undefeated streak (ATS) alive.

New York put on a big performance last week in upsetting Cincinnati, but in our book, that just makes the Jets great candidates for a letdown in this spot. Also, New York is getting out-rushed by 39 yards per game. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is out-rushing opponents by 13 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So we're betting the Colts here, minus the points.   

It's a delicate balance in this game to decide what counts more—what we've actually seen with our own eyes this season counterbalanced against what you assume should happen. And despite a horrific start, being at home against the Giants in a spot where they really need something good to happen would seem to shake out as a good spot. And any apathy or courtesy that the Giants could normally expect in a spot like this won't be at play. I see the Chiefs looking to make a point. And that's a dangerous KC bunch. I'll take the Chiefs

Clicking on Jacksonville on the road and out-of-conference isn't the easiest move to make. For Seattle, they're probably figuring that it would be hard to soldier on if they can't beat the Jags at home. I'd expect some pride to kick in on that sideline. And with no game-breaking receiving talent on Jacksonville, maybe Seattle can handle the narrower scope on the Jaguars offense. But without Wilson, Seattle has become Jacksonville in a way. And in a game that's tough to pick a winner, I'm inclined to take the points.

The problem with the difficult match-up for Atlanta is that it is not a reason to bet on the Panthers. We just watched the Carolina offense produce a measly 3 points in last week's 25-3 loss to the New York Giants, who were just 1-5 SU going into that contest. Personally, I have absolutely no faith in the Panthers' offense with Darnold behind center, especially with McCaffrey still on the shelf. As a result of those two premises, I believe we have ourselves a defensive battle that has serious value pivoting against the 47 point total. The Panthers have hit the "under" in eight of the last ten games, and I think that will be the play again this week!

Both these teams can run the ball, but Tennessee is out-rushing opponents by 52 yards per game, Indianapolis by 17 YPG. Also, Colts RB Taylor is a little banged up. Also, the Titans just seem to have Indy's number recently. Finally, we never mind betting against the public flow. So we're taking Tennessee here, plus the points. 

Both these teams are a bit banged-up so bettors might want to check late injury reports before getting down on this game. QB Murray gets a lot of ink for Arizona, but the Cardinals also rank fourth in the league in defense, and they're out-rushing opponents by 21 yards per game. Mean-while, Green Bay is getting out-rushed by 19 YPG. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So while we don't like going along with the betting flow, we're giving the points here with Arizona.  

Granted, this Seattle team without Wilson might not be able to maintain as well in this spot as they did against the Steelers last week. Still, they're at home, facing a highly imperfect Saints offense in a game where the points might not be coming fast and heavy. Perhaps Smith can take advantage of an exploitable Saints' pass-defense, with the Seahawks "D" able to contain Winston's aerial attack, which might be without its leading receiver. It's not a feeling that evokes the most comfort, but I'll take the Seahawks and the points this week.

Not to rule out the very real possibility that the time off helped the 49ers in some way, I just see a more intact Colts team that picked up some momentum the last few weeks being in a good spot getting points in this matchup. The Colts can run the ball, take to the air, and face a decent defensive spot against a San Fran offense that is down to just a few viable weapons. With Indy getting points while being healthier, in better form, and with more offensive variety at their disposal, they would appear to rate a solid choice this weekend. I’ll take the Colts.

I'm fading the public here as I expect game-script will play into a running clock. I don't have enough trust in either offense to hit the total. Take the under 48.

Kansas City is still crazy dangerous on offense, averaging 434 yards per game, and while they're not great defensively, neither is Tennessee. Also, the Titans might be ripe for a letdown this week, following a huge effort Monday night, and they're banged up. We like the Chiefs here, giving the points on the road.

Cleveland is down five key guys, and possibly more; maybe the Browns should file for a contin-uance. Denver's hurting, too, just not as much. However, we like Keenum, and we like that Cleveland defense, and sometimes when things get tough, teams rally around themselves and give good efforts. We won't be surprised if the Browns do something like that here. We like Cleveland, a home team giving a short spread, for our free football pick for Thursday night.

There is admittedly a lot of ammo for Pittsburgh backers in this out-of-conference road spot for a Wilson-less Seattle squad facing a major team crisis. Getting behind Geno Smith in 2021 behind a dicey line and a banged-up run game isn't the easiest thing to do. I just see the Steelers being a team where it won't be that hard to get them to revert to prior form, in which case covering numbers becomes a tall order for them. I think the Seahawks keep this one close and cover the spread.