NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

I'm not so sure what to expect from the Seahawks this week. Last week at home might have been their final spurt. Doing it against Detroit at home is different from making it work against an Arizona team trying to win its division, improve their playoff standing, and create some momentum for the playoffs. I'd expect a high-energy output from the Cardinals as they cruise home the winners and cover the spread. I'll take the Cardinals this week.

Kansas City is still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC while Denver, well, we're not sure what they're playing for. Also, the Chiefs basically got outplayed by the Broncos a month ago, but we don't think that will happen this time. And after blowing last week's game, we expect a rebound effort from KC here. So we're giving the points with the Chiefs.  

The Steelers are the kind of team that can regularly buck their form in a one-game window. At home, with big stakes against a Cleveland team that is wholly unreliable would appear to be one of those spots. It's just hard to see them getting through 60 minutes with a desperate Cleveland team with those shortcomings not manifesting. The sometimes-dysfunctional depths that this Browns' offense can sink to is a concern, as is the possibility that Roethlisberger just manages to somehow find some answers, but I see the respective calibers of each team's run-game/run-defense surfacing, as the Browns get to the finish line ahead. I'll take the Browns.

Miami’s won seven games in a row but who are they beating? Houston, the Jets, Carolina, the

Giants. Not exactly Murderers’ Row. Also, the Dolphins are only averaging 87 yards per game

on the ground. Tennessee, meanwhile, owns wins over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and 49ers

and is averaging 153 YPG on the ground over its last five games, without Henry! Plus, the best

unit on the field will probably be the Titans defense. We like Tennessee here, minus the points.

The betting line is more appropriate for this match-up, but I still side with the Cowboys, who have the more realistic paths to cover. Take Dallas -10

This should be a bet one makes with some discomfort. A Rams walloping looms as a distinct possibility. We’ve seen urgency not resonate well before in a lot less-troublesome spots with this Minnesota bunch. Kirk Cousins could put forth a big dud. A defense that can fold at any time, including a secondary that looks to get pushed thin this week could lead to this backfiring. But given the crapshoot appeal of the Rams’ team as a whole, the extra-short week, and a robust task for the LA road-defense is enough to give the Vikings the necessary upside this week to warrant a good look. I’ll take the Vikings and the points at home. 

Baltimore is probably without Jackson for this game, but Huntley is playing well. Also, we’ve

already seen this season the Ravens cover a spread without Jackson, the Browns won a game without Baker Mayfield, Arizona won a couple of games without Kyler Murray. The Packers covered a game without Aaron Rodgers. Also, Cincinnati is only 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS at home this season. We won’t call for the outright upset here, but we’re taking Baltimore plus the points.

San Francisco is hot, Tennessee is not, which means a lot when handicapping this game. The 49ers are running the ball, getting good play at QB, and playing great defense. The Titans, meanwhile, just aren't the same team without Henry. So we like the 49ers here, minus the points.       

This could be a game where we see the Seattle team liabilities manifest in a more-vivid way than what we've been seeing. That includes suspect play along both lines of scrimmage, a depreciated run-game, a limited aerial scope for Wilson, along with a defense that might be prime to hit a wall. I suspect the Rams will have an easier time converting production into point-scoring on Tuesday. And on defense, they should get after Wilson with a fervor, while perhaps eliciting some mistakes from the Seattle offense. In the end, I see the Rams laying it on heavy at home and getting to the finish line with the win and cover in week 15.

At seven losses and with pending matchups against the Packers and Rams, I’m not sure how pertinent the postseason urgency card is here for the Vikings. Maybe it’s on their mind, but then it also would have been on their mind when they lost to Detroit a few weeks ago. Despite both teams having a slew of recent games that sailed far above the “over,” I picture at least a slightly more-subdued offensive game this week. And if not, I’m not so sure the Bears are at as extreme a firepower deficit that some imagine. Whereas we saw a version of Fields earlier in the season who was focusing more on not screwing up, we have arrived at a point of the season where they seem to be letting him turn it loose to a greater degree. In any event, I think the Bears will keep this competitive enough to cover the spread on MNF. I’ll take Chicago.

 Despite a few subpar performances in recent weeks, Dallas has still been the best team for bettors in the NFL, going 10-3 ATS. Considering the extreme match-up advantages on both sides of the football, I have a hard time believing the Giants can contend in this spot. Simply put, the Cowboys have more reliable paths to a win and cover. As a result, I'm taking the Cowboys -11!

Both these teams are playing some good ball as of late, but ultimately we believe the Indianapolis

running game, powered by former Wisconsin Badger Jonathan Taylor, will make the difference.

On the season, the Colts are out-rushing opponents by 40 yards per game while New England is

out-grounding foes by nine YPG. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the

spread about 65 percent of the time. So we like Indy here.

These two teams are nearly identical offensively, but we give Kansas City the check-mark on defense because of that unit's great recent play and the fact that the Chargers rank 31st in the league against the run. So we like the Chiefs here, giving the short spread at a place with very little home-field advantage.     

Not that beating a longtime thorn in their sides won't provide Arizona ample motivation and set them up for the big late-season run. At home, this has to be huge for them. But as far as regular season turning-point games, this is clearly "the one" for the Rams, and I expect them to perform accordingly. And while taking such a position could be steeped in fallacy given their recent form, along with what might be a half-cocked view of the Cardinals not being in top-flight, I see the Rams being hard to stop this week. I'll take the Rams.

Our pick on this game really comes down to one guy, Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon. Three games ago, Mixon got 30 touches, the Bengals scored 32 points, won, and covered; two games ago, he got 32 touches, Cincy scored 41 points, won, and covered. Last week, though, Cincinnati fell behind right away, then Mixon got hurt. He's listed as questionable for Sunday. However, our guess is he'll play. We'll check his status Sunday morning, but from three days out, we like the Bengals to bounce back here.   

The Buccaneers play their best football at home, and I think the match-ups favor them this week as well. I'm taking Tampa Bay -3.5

Usually, we'd consider Pittsburgh a good candidate for a letdown here, coming off that emotional win last week, and Minnesota, a good candidate to bounce back, coming off that upset loss. But this Minnesota team will probably be without RB Cook and WR Thielen and probably shouldn't be favored by 3.5 points over anybody. The Steelers found a way to win last week while the Vikings found a way to lose, and that's kind of the story with these two teams over recent seasons. So for a game that could well come down to a field goal at the end, we'll take the three and a hook with Pittsburgh.    

I don’t think the New England surge is a smoke and mirrors show or just a byproduct of drawing some cooperative opposition. But a road-spot against Buffalo represents what could be a much higher level of difficulty than the recent contexts in which the Pats have been shining. And the kind of overall understated competence that the Pats have could put a crimp in the Bills high-flying ways. But I think the combination of a home-spot, overall urgency, and some better offensive weaponry will see the Bills through in this spot. I’ll take Buffalo.</p>

Kansas City is winning games recently because it’s held its last four opponents to a total of 47 points. Meanwhile, we consider Denver a good candidate for a letdown this week, following that big divisional win at home last week. So while the line on this game is probably inflated by a couple of points we still like the Chiefs.