NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Philadelphia ranks No. 3 in the League in total offense and No. 3 in total defense; Houston ranks No. 31 and No 30. Hurts is playing great ball and the Eagles are out-rushing opponents by 35 yards per game. The Texans barely managed 100 yards of offense last week and got the ball shoved down their throats on defense. Double-digits can be lot to deal with in the NFL but this looks like a real mismatch. We’re giving the points with Philly.

Cincinnati looks like it’s back on track, following a slow start this season, and while they won’t have Chase, maybe that means they’ll run the ball a little more, which would be a good thing. Cleveland, meanwhile, is just untrustworthy at the moment. The Browns are turning the ball over too much, they can’t stop the run, and they’re losing close games. We’re betting on the Bengals Monday night.

New York is out-rushing opponents by 29 yards per game; Seattle is getting out-rushed by 12 YPG. And in the NFL teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, while both teams are banged-up the Seahawks got it worse, and might play without their top two receivers. Also, NFL underdogs have produced a profit each of the last three weeks. We’re taking the Giants and the points here.

Baltimore should be 5-2 this season, maybe even 6-1, if not for some terrible prevent defense. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is not the team many thought it was coming into this season. Ultimately, what sells us here is that the Ravens are out-rushing opponents by 51 yards per game while the Buccaneers are getting out-rushed by 54 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles are covering the spread at a 66 percent rate this season. We’re betting Baltimore Thursday night.

Reports indicate New England will go with Jones at QB Monday night, although they might be better with Zappe. The Patriots just beat the Lions and Browns by a combined score of 67-15, and the Bears are no better than either of those teams. New England also owns the much better run defense in this match-up. Meanwhile, Chicago’s scored five offensive touchdowns over its last five games, and QB Justin Fields, who the Bears rely on for so much, got the snot knocked out of him last week. That’s what happens to running QBs in the NFL. Plus, Belichick’s going for the wins record Monday night. We’re giving the points here with the Patriots.  

San Francisco only ran the ball for 50 yards last week, but it still owns the better running game in this match-up. And so far this season, teams that win the ground battles are 60-33 SU and 58-33 ATS. Also, the 49ers’ defense ranks No. 1 overall in the League, No. 2 against the run, and No. 2 in points allowed. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s already played four really close games this season, and this looks like another one in the making. We’re betting on San Francisco here, plus the points.

We don’t care who plays QB for New Orleans here; we like the Saints’ ground attack, which is averaging 151 YPG, and while they’ve allowed at least 28 points each of their last three times out that’s not really all the defense’s fault. Meanwhile, we have zero faith in Arizona’s ability to win a football game right now. We like New Orleans for the win Thursday night.   

New York is coming off a big divisional rivalry win last week, but we should point out Miami was down to its rookie third-string quarterback. We consider the Jets candidates for a letdown this week. Green Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a pathetic second-half performance last week. We consider the Packers good candidates to rebound this week. Ultimately Green Bay owns the better running game in this match-up, the better quarterback, and probably the better defense. We’re playing the Packers here, minus the points.

Chicago owns the better record here and home-field advantage but also the worst passing game in the League and the second-worst run defense. Washington, meanwhile, may only own one victory so far this season, but it's lost three close ones and has out-gained three of five foes. The Commanders might also be due for a little better luck, turnover-wise. This game could very well get ugly, and we like Coach Rivera in ugly games. We're betting Washington Thursday night.

Kansas City beat Las Vegas by 27 and 39 points last season. What's changed since then? Not all that much, really. The Chiefs lost dangerous WR Hill over the off-season, but they've hit the 40-point mark twice already this year. Meanwhile, the Raiders ran the ball 13, 21, and 19 times in their first three games and lost all three. They then ran it 38 times last week and won. Do they have the patience to do that again this week? Color us doubtful. We're giving the points with KC Monday night.  

While there's word Prescott might play Sunday, we're guessing Dallas will stick with Rush for the time being. And that's fine with us. We like how the Cowboys have rallied during this situation. Plus, we like that Dallas defense, although it's gotta get a little better against the run. Then again, Los Angeles isn't running the ball worth a bleep, and it might be down to its third-string center. We won't call for the outright victory here, but we're playing the Cowboys plus the points.

Russell Wilson isn’t exactly lighting Denver on fire, but he still gets the checkmark in this quarterback match-up. From there, the Broncos are running the ball better than Indianapolis, and even if Taylor plays, he won’t be 100 percent with that bad ankle. Also, Denver owns the better defense. And the Broncos might have won last week if not for that fumble that turned into a Raiders touchdown. We’re giving the points with Denver Thursday night.

Philadelphia is the better team in this match-up and should win this game. The Eagles own the No. 1 offense in the League and the No. 5 defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is a nice story at the moment and seems headed in a good direction. But asking this young Jaguars team to get up for another even bigger road game a week after the win at the Chargers might be asking too much. We’re giving the points here with Philly.

Miami’s 3-0 on the season but could easily be 1-2; Cincinnati’s 1-2 but should be 2-1. Also, the Bengals actually own the better running game in this match-up, when they choose to run the ball, and the better defense. Also, Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS since Burrow arrived when favored by less than a touchdown. We don’t usually like going along with the betting flow, but we’re betting the Bengals Thursday night.    

Cleveland owns a big checkmark in the comparison of the running games and the better defense. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, Brissett actually looked pretty good last week, while Trubisky looks iffy. We’re betting the Brownies Thursday night, minus the points.

The quarterbacks get all the ink heading into this game but what really matters is Kansas City owns the better running game and the better run defense. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Chiefs sure didn’t seem to miss WR Hill last week, racking up almost 500 yards of offense, and Mahomes is 2-1 against Herbert. This should be another close game, but we like KC, minus the points.

Dallas owns the better running game in this match-up, and its quarterback is 16 years younger than Tampa's. And we expect even more improvement from the Cowboys' defense this season. The Bucs, meanwhile, downgraded at head coach, and we just don't like the idea of an old man playing QB. Dallas nearly beat the Bucs last year, and we think they'll do it this time. We're betting the Cowboys here for the win on the money line at a price of +120. 

The Rams are the defending champs but the Bills, heading into Thursday night, are the better team. Buffalo’s got the better run game and the better defense, and that’s where we like to put our money. The Bills lost their season opener last year and they’d like to avoid that kind of start this season. We like Buffalo for Thursday night, minus the points.  

Motivation means almost everything when it comes to winning NFL exhibition games, and Carolina should be the more motivated team in this spot. HC Rhule finds himself on a hot seat heading into this season and needs to instill some good vibes into his team. Also, he has to get a quarterback in place. New England, meanwhile, is the much more settled team and probably more interested in just avoiding any injuries this preseason than winning games. We'll take the Panthers here for the win at +140 on the money line.

Both these teams are under new head coaches, but Las Vegas is the more established outfit at the moment. The Raiders made the playoffs last year and are expected to contend for the playoffs this season. Therefore our guess is Vegas probably cares more about avoiding injuries this exhibition season than winning games. Minnesota, meanwhile, has more holes to fill and might try to use this preseason to create a winning atmosphere. Motivation means a ton in exhibition games, and we believe the Vikings are the more motivated team in this spot. We’ll take the Vikes and the points.