NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Pittsburgh’s last 4 games have produced 47, 44, 58 and 51 points. While they can be explosive on offense, their defense can be beaten by good offenses. Miami’s last 6 games have produced an average of 50.5 ppg as their offense has continued to produce in the absence of Tannehill but their defense has also been susceptible to giving up their share of points. While I think the spread (10 points) may be a bit high, I think the Over is the way to go. Both teams have offensive weapons that can exploit their opponent’s defensive weaknesses and I expect a high-scoring affair at Heinz Filed this weekend.

Four of the past 5 games Seattle have played in reached 47 points or more as the defense has had trouble containing opposing offenses in the absence of Thomas. The Seahawks scored 24+ points in 4 of those games as their offense can still put up their share of points. Detroit’s last 2 games have produced 63 and 55 points as they had trouble with the Cowboys and Packers’ offenses. The Seahawks offense may be a step down in class from those 2 teams but with Wilson’s ability to scramble and make plays on the move, I expect them to give the Lions all they can handle. Conversely, I expect Stafford to move the ball through the air consistently against this defense. Seattle has lost 1 home game this season and has a 9-game home-winning streak going in the playoffs. Despite that, I’ll go with the Over in this one as I expect a spirited high-scoring affair between these 2 clubs.

It is easy to see why the total line for this game has been set so low given the dire situation at quarterback for both teams. I would still be tempted to go with the UNDER as a viable play in what will most likely be a four-quarter grinder that ends up getting decided by a field goal.

Even with Carr out of the lineup, I see Oakland as the better overall team in this matchup. The Raiders lack of experience in the postseason is somewhat of a concern, but Houston has hardly been a juggernaut in its past three appearances in the playoffs. Take the three points and take Oakland to cover in this one.

Green Bay has all the momentum in the world on its side against a Lions’ team looked very ordinary against the Cowboys on Monday night. Add in the fact that Rodgers is probably playing his best ball of the year and that makes it even harder for Detroit to bounce back on a short week.

This spread will probably continue to grow as we get closer to game time, so I am going to lock things up at Green Bay minus the 3.5 points as my “best bet” pick.

Denver’s locker room scuffle between the offense and defense from 2 weeks ago carried over into last week. The offense is rudderless right now and the defense is tiring from being on the field so long. The Raiders won’t want to put the game solely in McCloin’s hands so look for them to have 30+ rushing attempts in this game. Oakland still has a shot at the No.1 seed for the conference and won’t overlook the reeling Broncos. They are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 visits to the Mile High city and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games away from home. Look for the Raiders’ o-line to be the star of the offense as they carve holes for 3 good RBs and protect McCloin (16 sacks allowed in ’16) so he can find wideouts Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. I look for the visitor to get a big win this week and claim their first AFC West title since 2002.

The Cardinals’ last 8 games have all been scorefests, with 43 total points being the lowest combined total with 58.5 being the average. Palmer has started to play better recently and still may be in the team’s plans for 2017. He has a good assortment of weapons at his disposal and a do-everything RB behind him. The Rams have played in plenty of ‘Under’ games this year but has also been involved in 3 games in the past 5 weeks that totaled 43 points or higher. I feel Goff can do enough to get the offense into the end zone a few times and feel Arizona will do their best to finish the year on a high note. Therefore, I feel the ‘Over’ is the way to go in this game.

Both of these teams are out of contention but I expect a spirited affair this Sunday. Both of these defenses are reeling with injuries being the main culprit in Chicago and a disagreement over game plans being a problem in Minnesota. The Bears have placed an NFL-high 19 players on IR but are still competing. Barkley is relishing his chance to prove he is starter worthy and will want to make amends for last week’s showing. Bradford wants to set the completion record and while he does throw a lot of horizontal passes, he will want to repeat last week’s effort to show he is in his club’s plans for the future. The Vikings don’t run the ball very well so I expect Bradford to be firing the ball a lot this Sunday. Howard, despite his accomplishments, has been underutilized in almost every game. I expect him to have another productive day and for this game to go over the number.

Carolina is still playing for a certain sense of pride, but that has not really been able to get it done lately. Tampa Bay has an outside shot at the last wild card spot in the NFC, but its play the past two weeks points to a team that is still not ready to take that next step.

The Buccaneers may be able to get the SU win at home to pull off the season sweep against their division rivals, but the “best bet” pick in this one is the UNDER on the current 46.5-point line. I see both defenses getting the best of each other’s struggling offense this Sunday in Tampa Bay.

Even though the Lions appeared to be a lock to win the NFC North and are now left fighting for their playoff life, this is still one of the better balanced teams in the NFC. Head coach Jim Caldwell is already under fire, but I see his team rallying with a much better effort this week. The Cowboys may not even need this game if the Giants lose on Thursday night, so I would question their motivation level on Monday night.

I would think that Dallas still gets the SU win at home, but I honestly believe that the Lions will fight tooth and nail to keep things closer than seven points.

This matchup is shaping up to be another low-scoring grinder between two teams that will simply try and outlast one another. Weather is not expected to be a major factor with milder temperatures forecast for Christmas night, but it is still easy to see why the total line has been set so low for this game.

I am going to default to the better overall team playing at home as my rational for betting on the Chiefs to win and cover the four points on Sunday night.

The Chargers lost the first meeting this season 37-29 as 3.5-point home favorites and I see them going down again on Thursday night against a division rival that is much hungrier for a win. Lay the five points in this one with a play on Oakland pulling off the season sweep both SU and ATS.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 visits to The Big Easy and need to win their last 2 games for a shot at a playoff berth. Their defense came up big in their last encounter with New Orleans and allowed an average of 13 ppg during their recent winning streak. The defense gives up yards but toughens up on their side of the field. The Saints offense has been very up-and-down over the past month, scoring 49, 13, 11 and 48 points in their last 4 games. I believe a healthier Martin and the Buccaneers defense will do enough to get a big road win for the visitor this week.

The Patriots need to win this game to maintain their No.1 seed for the playoffs. New York is finishing a very difficult season and getting a look at Petty to see if he is in their future plans. He will have a better chance at success if he looks more at Marshall and Enunwa, especially in this game. The Jets were blown out 49-19 in 2012 by New England but every game since has been decided by 9 or fewer points and the Jets have actually won a few of those games. While I expect the Pats to win this game, I think some pride and competitiveness still remains with these Jet players and they will give a decent accounting of themselves. They must do 2 things in this game; run the ball affectively and mount some pressure on Brady.

Warm weather teams may find themselves in all sorts of trouble this time of year. The ecosystem in the Midwest is far contrasting to the warm and temperate sunny shores of San Diego. The Bolts love to throw the ball as well and they may be relying on this initiative even more with respect to injuries that have hampered their rushing department even more. With this being said, San Diego may have a lot of trouble playing in these frigid temperatures which to the Browns is another day at the office. Cleveland is hungry for their first win and situationally on paper this scenario sets up perfectly for them to just that. San Diego is not a good enough football team to spotting points to anyone, including Cleveland. With Cleveland ever inching closer to infamy, the Browns will come out in desperation to avoid the stigma of being the second winless team in NFL history. While there is likely a mass exodus on queue for many of the Browns’ talent in the off-season, the fact remains they have one more chance to give their fans something to cheer about on Christmas morning. While the weather may play a factor in this affair, many may feel inclined to hop on the Under. However, the weather will only truly influence San Diego’s efforts. Cleveland may not just win this one but do so convincingly.

This game features 2 teams going in wildly different directions. Tennessee needs to win this game to set up a division-clinching battle with Houston next week. The Jaguars have 2 wins all year and will draft in the Top 5 again next year. The Titans’ run game is strong and while Mariota hasn’t been great the past 2 weeks, he’s been good enough to get wins. Doug Marrone is the interim head coach for Jacksonville and it’s not likely he can right the ship in the next 2 weeks. Look for Tennessee to be productive in the run game and for the defense to force Bortles into mistakes. The Jaguars have an edge in this series in recent years but I expect that trend to falter this week.

The Packers/Vikings rivalry is one for the ages and with the playoff implications on the lines here it is essentially a do-or-die situation for Minnesota. The Vikings have certainly appeared more human after being the NFL’s top team in the first half of the regular season. The Packers have won in four in a row as mentioned and with this portfolio of results comes a likely overreaction. When you toss in the narrative that the Packers get the Vikings at home in late December, nostalgia may actually steer the consensus. The Packers are known for a robust home field advantage at Lambeau Field. The Packers are a very tough team to beat in Green Bay this time of year and the market is basing itself around this scenario. Given the fact the Vikings were pummeled last week, while Green Bay extended their winning streak we have a typical buy-low sell-high situation. Minnesota can lose this game but still cover as the Packers are likely to implore an inflated number on any taker by virtue of their namesake alone. We will have no part of this and there is a reason why extra juice is required to take Minnesota against the spread. The books are banking on the Vikings covering and with that being said, we will go ahead and fade the public in this one.

New York needs this game much more than Philly and it also has a big edge in momentum with its recent play. The Eagles will still put up a good fight against a bitter division rival, but the end result is highly unlikely to change given that they continue to find ways to lose games they actually had a chance to win.

On a short week, take the Giants and lay the three points as they pull off the season sweep against Philadelphia.

Carolina is forced to ride out the string following one of its best seasons in franchise history, but there is still a sense of pride with this team to put up a decent fight against the Redskins. Washington remains one of those teams that most times does find a way to win, but always keeps things interesting to the final gun.

I would lean towards taking Carolina and the points in this matchup in what could very well be a three-point game either way. The Panthers would still like to finish the season on a high note and Washington has already proven that it likes to win games the hard way.

Bettors obviously fear that there are some deeper cracks in the foundation with Dallas by edging this spread down to a touchdown after it opened at 7.5 points. Tampa Bay is a solid playoff team this season, but it is hard to completely discount everything that the Cowboys have accomplished before failing to cover in their last three games.

I am going to roll the dice that Dallas does return to form in front of the home-town crowd this Sunday night by covering the touchdown spread against the Bucs.

The Raiders are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 matchups with San Diego and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 visits. They are still in the divisional hunt as they only need a slip-up by Kansas City to reclaim top spot in the division. Carr was dreadful last week but should bounce back with rest. I expect Rivers to pass for a fair amount of yardage but also to commit a few costly TOs. The Raiders lead with league with a +15 TO differential and will be poised to capitalize on any Chargers miscues. The line is only a FG and I expect Oakland to build on their 6-1 SU away-from-home record (including game in Mexico City) this week.