NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

With both teams coming off a bye, neither team can complain about a lack of rest or a long road trip. The Panthers have won 3 straight and are in a dogfight with New Orleans for the NFC South title. New York is likely out of the playoff hunt but is surpassing expectations with their surprising play. I just don’t think they have enough on both sides of the ball to stay with a Carolina team that is surging on both sides of the ball and get some of their key players back this week. The number is pretty low and I expect another road win for a Panthers team that is 4-1 SU/ATS away from home this year.

Both of these teams are now watching things completely slip away with their recent play. The Giants do have some momentum with last week’s upset at home, but they remain one of the most inconsistent teams from week to week. The Redskins are fading fast with just one SU win in their last five games, but they have still done a pretty good job of covering against the teams they are favored to beat.

The extra half point on the current touchdown spread remains a big concern, so while I have Washington finding a way to get past the Giants this Thursday night SU, I am taking those 7.5 points with a ‘best bet’ pick that New York covers.

The Cowboys were blown out on Sunday Night Football and be that national audiences witnessed this outcome, the effects of it are being seen in this market. Contrarily, far less saw the Bolts rout the Bills but the box score in itself was enough to generate a reaction. These two contrasting notions are heavily influencing this market in the build-up to the contest. However, the fact remains that Dallas is like Detroit in that it treats Thanksgiving as a special affair. With respect to the fact they get this one at home as well, the Cowboys were favored for a reason initially. If takers shop around they can probably locate a market where an additional point is on the table or the juice is reduced. If not, you can always lay a point to the Bolts. The Cowboys will take care of business this one and they also get the call outright.

After defeating the Los Angeles Rams in the manner which they did, the stock on the Vikings continue to reach a new plateau this season. Minnesota and New Orleans are the two most talked about teams in the NFC currently, that makes them a prime fade target this week be that they are prone to be overvalued and subject to a let-down.

Against the spread, Minnesota has been a cash cow as well. The Vikings have won five in a row against the spread and most of this is due to Minnesota being undervalued by the public against teams they were marginal favorites against. In this scenario the opposite looks to be the case. The Vikings look too easy in this market and usually when that is the case, it means that a correction from the books is coming. The fact remains, Detroit treats Thanksgiving like its Super Bowl and the fact they get this one at home makes them even more dangerous. The Lions outright get the call.

Both teams need a win in a very crowded playoff picture in the NFC; however neither team has been able to play with any amount of consistency from one week to the next. Seattle has the edge on defense, but Atlanta still has more overall talent on the other side of the ball. As far as picking a side, I would still call this a toss-up that could be decided by three points either way. As far as my ‘best bet’ pick, I will go with the UNDER on the current 45-point total line.

While anything can happen in a bitter division rivalry, Philadelphia knows that there is blood in the water as it goes in for the kill. It is never smart to go against a hot team and it would be tough to find a NFL team hotter than the Eagles right now across every phase of the game. Throw in the revenge factor for the Cowboys’ SU edge in this series over the past few seasons and it sets up the perfect opportunity to lay the three points and ride Philly to another win both SU and ATS.

Denver has given up 51 and 41 points in their last 2 losses. On the flip side, they are averaging a mere 13.6 ppg during their current winless streak. The offense just isn’t getting the job done and the defense is starting to show cracks. The Bengals are a flawed team in some ways but they can nullify the passing game and have a star wideout in Green to make defenses nervous about. Cincy’s pass rush has improved and I expect them to harass Osweiler into mistakes and help lead the visitor to a big road cover this week.

This game was originally scheduled for Week 1 but was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Both teams had high hopes then but are now both clinging to slim playoff hopes. Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS over their past 8 games as their offense doesn’t score points and the defense can’t stop the pass or sack the QB (last week notwithstanding). I feel Cutler, with some help from Drake, can do enough on offense to move the chains and score points against a defense that has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their past 8 games. Not likely to be a thriller but I’ll side with home team in this one.

On a neutral field this game would have seen the Rams open as a slight favorite with movements to a virtual pick-em albeit the two teams seem to be so evenly matched. However, home field advantage has caused the Vikings to spot a small cushion of points with respect to the notion of them being the hosts.

Home field advantage undoubtedly will play a role in this contest, especially for a team coming from a warm weather climate that relies on its passing game to get the job done. The cold and frosty air of Minnesota is not welcoming to even its locals. For a visitor exposed to these elements, the venue will even be that less accommodating. Nevertheless, given how well the Rams have looked there is plenty of allure here to take the points. Los Angeles has simply outclassed opponents in the previous two weeks but then again it was against the Giants who have won just a game this season and a Houston Texans team without J.J Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Deshaun Watson. Needless to say, this is a step up in competition. Swallow the points.

The Packers have one win in their last four games and that came last week against the Bears. Green Bay’s running game was solid with 160 yards on the ground, but the bad news is that they benefitted from RB T. Montgomery’s 54 yards on 6 carries and RB Aaron Jones 12 yards on three carries. They both will be out this week leaving RB Jamaal Williams to pick up the slack. He picked up 67 yards on 20 carries in that win, but he hasn’t proven to be as explosive. If Baltimore can contain the running game, which I think they can, I don’t see QB Brett Hundley winning this game with his arm against the second-best pass defense in the NFL. Add in that the Ravens get back another weapon back on offense and they should be able to put enough points on the board to get the win and the cover. RB Danny Woodhead is set to return, and he looked good in Week 1 before getting hurt with three catches for 33 yards and he’ll go against a defense that has struggled covering backs in the passing game.

Jacksonville has won their 6 games by an average score of 21 points and that’s with last week’s 3-point win included. Everyone knows the Browns are 0-9 on the year but they are also 1-7 ATS over their past 8 games. Kizer will have a lot of trouble throwing against this defense and I expect the Jags to overplay the run and force the rookie to make plays on 3rd down. Fournette is a handful for any defense and Bortles is doing just enough to keep opposing defense from stacking the box. I look for a big win by the visitor as they chase their first winning season since 2007 and a division title as well.

This situation sets up another archetypal buy-low and sell-high scenario. The Lions are riding the hotter hand and have been the better franchise in this series, as of late. As a result, the Lions find themselves spotting road points to a team with a notoriously strong home field advantage. There is no question that the Lions have some exceptional talent on their team, most notably their wide receiving corps which is anchored by ‘Marvelous’ Marvin Jones and one Golden Tate. However, with Detroit’s stock soaring to new heights whilst Chicago’s plummets there is a propensity here for the bubble to burst.

The Bears have won against the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers in 2017 at Soldier Field. The Steelers are the best team in the AFC at the moment and the Panthers are presently in the playoff discussion. The Bears took care of both of them when they came to visit. The Bears have won two of their three victories on the year in Chi-town and even when they were defeated it was by no more than touchdown, including contests against the first place Minnesota Vikings and defending NFC Champions Atlanta. Very simply, Chicago is too dangerous to fade when they are at home. Chicago may be worth a look on the Money Line here but for those looking to play it safe, take the points.

The Titans remain in the thick of the AFC South title race, but they are stepping up in class this Thursday night in a very tough place to win a game. The Steelers have built up some momentum over their past four games with much better consistency on both sides of the ball. I do not see Pittsburgh taking a step backwards at home this late in the season, so I will lay the seven points with a ‘best bet’ the Steelers cover the touchdown spread.

Points could be hard to come by on Monday night given what we have seen from Miami’s offense and Carolina’s defense this season, but I am still not convinced that the Panthers are good enough to command a double-digit spread as home favorites. The Dolphins have played bad recently, but they are not that bad of team overall. You can also add the fact that Carolina has been inconsistent at times on both sides of the ball. I may be taking the bait here, but I am taking the 10 points and the road underdog ATS on Monday night.

New England is well rested and primed for a second-half run which is a bad combination for a Denver team that appears to be on the verge of a complete collapse following one of its worst losses in recent memory. You can only out so much pressure on one side of the ball and, on the heels of Philly’s offensive explosion, Brady and the Patriots’ offense should be able to exploit the dire situation with the Broncos as well. Lay the points and take the road favorite to cover on Sunday night.

The Cowboys have picked up a few noteworthy wins in the past couple of weeks and this has generated a lot of attention and fanfare in their direction. Despite their portfolio of performances, the Cowboys are priced as a dog this week with due reason. The Cowboys will be without the engine of their offense but some believe that the Dallas offensive line will be able to erase this void by creating the holes and opportunities for the next man up. Both Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris have extensive expertise at this level so there is certainly merit in believing the rushing operations will resume as normal.

However, Atlanta has been looking for a signature win this season to erase the skepticism that has surrounded them. Many have said this team has a “Super Bowl Hangover” and declared the Birds have little chance of returning to the post-season. There is no better way to quiet critics than take down a NFL blue blood in a high-profile contest like this one. Atlanta will look to make a statement in front of their home crowd.

This game features two teams trending in opposite directions. LA has won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games. They are clicking on all cylinders offensively as HC Sean McVay has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround in Goff’s play as well as the offense as a whole. Despite their 3-4 record at the time, the Texans were still in the hunt for the AFC South crown before Watson was felled with a season-ending knee injury. Savage hasn’t been able to get the job done despite several opportunities and the defense is dealing with injury issues. The number is pretty big but the Rams don’t sit on leads; they look to expand them. With this in mind, I like LA to get another big win at home this Sunday and cover a pretty high number.

The Browns are 1-23 SU under HC Hue Jackson and their front office botched a prospective trade for Bengals QB A.J. McCarron last week due to a paperwork mix up. Detroit is 16-8 SU in the second half of the season under HC Jim Caldwell. Stafford is having a good season and I don’t see this defense being able to contain him. Conversely, Cleveland’s offense is a mess with no players to account for, allowing the Lions to play loose and take chances. This is a big number to be sure but 3 of the 4 Lions wins have been by 13+ points while the Browns have lost 2 of their last 3 games by 17 and 16 points. With the Packers a non-factor, Detroit has their sights set on Minnesota and the division crown. They won’t overlook this dreadful team and I look for an easy win at home for the Lions.

The NY Jets passing offense hasn’t been racking up the yards with QB Josh McCown at the helm ranking a lowly 25th in the league, but he has been accurate. McCown has completed 70.5 percent of his pass attempts this season and has a respectable 13 TD to 7 INT ratio. He should have some success facing the porous secondary of the Bucs who rank in the bottom 10 in many pass defense categories this season. Tampa Bay comes into this game missing their top two offensive players and may be missing both starting offensive tackles. The Jets defense will be arguably the weakest unit that the Bucs have faced in over a month, but I don’t think with key personnel losses that they’ll be able to capitalize on it.

Situationally, this contest sets up perfectly for what we call a buy-low and sell-high scenario. There is not a hotter team in the NFL right now perhaps than the New Orleans Saints. With their winning streak, the Saints’ stock continues to rise to new levels each week. Thumping Tampa Bay to the extent the Saints did only elevates them to a point where a let-down is the only possible outcome that is bound to happen. This could be that juncture.

The Saints do not fare well historically outside of their controlled environment once the autumn temperatures begin to dip. In Buffalo, it is frigid compared to the Big Easy. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this year and that mark may stay unscathed the closer the season gets to winter. Nevertheless, Buffalo was embarrassed by a football team that was supposed to go winless this year on national television when the Jets had their way with the Buffs. This course of events is bound to cultivate a reaction from the public and only sells the stock of the scorching Saints even more. Buffalo may be worth a look on the Money Line here but for those looking to play it safe, take the points.