NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Indianapolis got run over for 188 yards on 37 carries in their previous meeting, but the Colts have shored up their run defense since that game holding the opposition to fewer than 100 yards in four consecutive games. Their offense has been a problem though scoring 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games including a zero in their last against the Jaguars back in Indy. Jacksonville put up 27 points in the last meeting, but they had A. Hurns and M. Lee as starters which won't be the case this week. They were without RB L. Fournette, but Ivory had a huge game racking up 122 yards on nine carries. I don't see that happening this week. Sure Fournette may be able to break one off,  but the lack of a quality passing game should have both teams loading up the box and forcing the QBs to win this game. I don't feel that either team will have a lot of success in the aerial attack making this an easy call. 

Both of these teams have been extremely profitable as of late. The Vikings in particular have been continuously exceeding expectations on a weekly basis. The talk of the town is the play of quarterback Case Keenum. However, Minnesota is going into an environment conducive for the reigning MVP Matt Ryan to show why he earned such credentials. With all the hype and hyperbole surrounding Minnesota, we actually have a chance here to take back The Dirty Birds at a reduced price. Typically, you can expect to pay a premium to back the Falcons in ATL but in this rare instance, the books are begging for action on Atlanta. Take it while the odds are favorable. The Falcons spotting the points get our call.

Both of these teams are fighting for their lives in the NFC playoff race just to remain in contention for a wild card spot. The Redskins have the slight edge in momentum coming off last Thursday’s win in light of the Cowboys’ three-game slide, but neither team instills all that much confidence when it comes to picking a SU winner in Thursday night’s matchup.

I do believe that this game will remain close for all four quarters with both offenses having some success at putting points on the board. The lean is towards Dallas at home, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the OVER on the current 44-point total line.

Houston may be down, but it is not completely out of the wild card playoff race in the AFC given just how wide open things remain heading into the stretch run of the regular season. Baltimore is in the same boat given the current three-game gap in the AFC North with frontrunner Pittsburgh so you could probably put Monday night’s matchup in the ‘must win’ category for both teams. Given just how closely they do matchup against one another, I will take the Texans and the seven points on the road as my ‘best bet’ pick.

The idea of giving two touchdowns to Green Bay is hard to imagine under any conditions, but I think the oddsmakers are trying to bait the betting public with some of the inflated pointspreads on the board this week in the NFL. I am not taking that bait in my ‘best bet’ pick for Sunday night’s contest with Pittsburgh coming away with the win at home both SU and ATS.

This game features 2 teams going quickly in opposite directions. The Cards have dropped 3 of their last 4 and are on their 3rd QB of the season. Jacksonville sits atop the AFC South division and has what appears to be the best defense in football. Gabbert has been dumped as the starter by 2 franchises and I just don’t see him being successful this week. The Jaguars don’t score a ton of points but I see them scoring just enough to get another big win and cover this Sunday.

Take the Jaguars

I’m tempted to take the Rams in this spot with the Saints secondary injuries, but believe the total is the way to go here. The Rams couldn’t solve the Vikings defense last week, but they should get their share of points this week against the Saints who last week gave up 31 to the Skins. The Saints offense has put up 30 plus in three straight which is what they should be able to do again today.

Denver is out of the playoffs and team president John Elway even referred to his players as ‘soft’ after the Bengals loss. By firing McCoy and inserting former Raiders OC Bill Musgrave into his spot, he is looking to shake up the offense. Lynch will also be making his first start of the year so that is a lot of changes on offense in one week. Oakland’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread but the offense does have the personnel to make a late run. While neither team is likely to make the playoffs, I’ll side with a Raiders team that is playing their first game in Oakland in 5 weeks and has the better offense.

With both teams coming off a bye, neither team can complain about a lack of rest or a long road trip. The Panthers have won 3 straight and are in a dogfight with New Orleans for the NFC South title. New York is likely out of the playoff hunt but is surpassing expectations with their surprising play. I just don’t think they have enough on both sides of the ball to stay with a Carolina team that is surging on both sides of the ball and get some of their key players back this week. The number is pretty low and I expect another road win for a Panthers team that is 4-1 SU/ATS away from home this year.

Both of these teams are now watching things completely slip away with their recent play. The Giants do have some momentum with last week’s upset at home, but they remain one of the most inconsistent teams from week to week. The Redskins are fading fast with just one SU win in their last five games, but they have still done a pretty good job of covering against the teams they are favored to beat.

The extra half point on the current touchdown spread remains a big concern, so while I have Washington finding a way to get past the Giants this Thursday night SU, I am taking those 7.5 points with a ‘best bet’ pick that New York covers.

The Cowboys were blown out on Sunday Night Football and be that national audiences witnessed this outcome, the effects of it are being seen in this market. Contrarily, far less saw the Bolts rout the Bills but the box score in itself was enough to generate a reaction. These two contrasting notions are heavily influencing this market in the build-up to the contest. However, the fact remains that Dallas is like Detroit in that it treats Thanksgiving as a special affair. With respect to the fact they get this one at home as well, the Cowboys were favored for a reason initially. If takers shop around they can probably locate a market where an additional point is on the table or the juice is reduced. If not, you can always lay a point to the Bolts. The Cowboys will take care of business this one and they also get the call outright.

After defeating the Los Angeles Rams in the manner which they did, the stock on the Vikings continue to reach a new plateau this season. Minnesota and New Orleans are the two most talked about teams in the NFC currently, that makes them a prime fade target this week be that they are prone to be overvalued and subject to a let-down.

Against the spread, Minnesota has been a cash cow as well. The Vikings have won five in a row against the spread and most of this is due to Minnesota being undervalued by the public against teams they were marginal favorites against. In this scenario the opposite looks to be the case. The Vikings look too easy in this market and usually when that is the case, it means that a correction from the books is coming. The fact remains, Detroit treats Thanksgiving like its Super Bowl and the fact they get this one at home makes them even more dangerous. The Lions outright get the call.

Both teams need a win in a very crowded playoff picture in the NFC; however neither team has been able to play with any amount of consistency from one week to the next. Seattle has the edge on defense, but Atlanta still has more overall talent on the other side of the ball. As far as picking a side, I would still call this a toss-up that could be decided by three points either way. As far as my ‘best bet’ pick, I will go with the UNDER on the current 45-point total line.

While anything can happen in a bitter division rivalry, Philadelphia knows that there is blood in the water as it goes in for the kill. It is never smart to go against a hot team and it would be tough to find a NFL team hotter than the Eagles right now across every phase of the game. Throw in the revenge factor for the Cowboys’ SU edge in this series over the past few seasons and it sets up the perfect opportunity to lay the three points and ride Philly to another win both SU and ATS.

Denver has given up 51 and 41 points in their last 2 losses. On the flip side, they are averaging a mere 13.6 ppg during their current winless streak. The offense just isn’t getting the job done and the defense is starting to show cracks. The Bengals are a flawed team in some ways but they can nullify the passing game and have a star wideout in Green to make defenses nervous about. Cincy’s pass rush has improved and I expect them to harass Osweiler into mistakes and help lead the visitor to a big road cover this week.

This game was originally scheduled for Week 1 but was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Both teams had high hopes then but are now both clinging to slim playoff hopes. Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS over their past 8 games as their offense doesn’t score points and the defense can’t stop the pass or sack the QB (last week notwithstanding). I feel Cutler, with some help from Drake, can do enough on offense to move the chains and score points against a defense that has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their past 8 games. Not likely to be a thriller but I’ll side with home team in this one.

On a neutral field this game would have seen the Rams open as a slight favorite with movements to a virtual pick-em albeit the two teams seem to be so evenly matched. However, home field advantage has caused the Vikings to spot a small cushion of points with respect to the notion of them being the hosts.

Home field advantage undoubtedly will play a role in this contest, especially for a team coming from a warm weather climate that relies on its passing game to get the job done. The cold and frosty air of Minnesota is not welcoming to even its locals. For a visitor exposed to these elements, the venue will even be that less accommodating. Nevertheless, given how well the Rams have looked there is plenty of allure here to take the points. Los Angeles has simply outclassed opponents in the previous two weeks but then again it was against the Giants who have won just a game this season and a Houston Texans team without J.J Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Deshaun Watson. Needless to say, this is a step up in competition. Swallow the points.

The Packers have one win in their last four games and that came last week against the Bears. Green Bay’s running game was solid with 160 yards on the ground, but the bad news is that they benefitted from RB T. Montgomery’s 54 yards on 6 carries and RB Aaron Jones 12 yards on three carries. They both will be out this week leaving RB Jamaal Williams to pick up the slack. He picked up 67 yards on 20 carries in that win, but he hasn’t proven to be as explosive. If Baltimore can contain the running game, which I think they can, I don’t see QB Brett Hundley winning this game with his arm against the second-best pass defense in the NFL. Add in that the Ravens get back another weapon back on offense and they should be able to put enough points on the board to get the win and the cover. RB Danny Woodhead is set to return, and he looked good in Week 1 before getting hurt with three catches for 33 yards and he’ll go against a defense that has struggled covering backs in the passing game.

Jacksonville has won their 6 games by an average score of 21 points and that’s with last week’s 3-point win included. Everyone knows the Browns are 0-9 on the year but they are also 1-7 ATS over their past 8 games. Kizer will have a lot of trouble throwing against this defense and I expect the Jags to overplay the run and force the rookie to make plays on 3rd down. Fournette is a handful for any defense and Bortles is doing just enough to keep opposing defense from stacking the box. I look for a big win by the visitor as they chase their first winning season since 2007 and a division title as well.

This situation sets up another archetypal buy-low and sell-high scenario. The Lions are riding the hotter hand and have been the better franchise in this series, as of late. As a result, the Lions find themselves spotting road points to a team with a notoriously strong home field advantage. There is no question that the Lions have some exceptional talent on their team, most notably their wide receiving corps which is anchored by ‘Marvelous’ Marvin Jones and one Golden Tate. However, with Detroit’s stock soaring to new heights whilst Chicago’s plummets there is a propensity here for the bubble to burst.

The Bears have won against the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers in 2017 at Soldier Field. The Steelers are the best team in the AFC at the moment and the Panthers are presently in the playoff discussion. The Bears took care of both of them when they came to visit. The Bears have won two of their three victories on the year in Chi-town and even when they were defeated it was by no more than touchdown, including contests against the first place Minnesota Vikings and defending NFC Champions Atlanta. Very simply, Chicago is too dangerous to fade when they are at home. Chicago may be worth a look on the Money Line here but for those looking to play it safe, take the points.