NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Kansas City got caught napping last week, losing outright as a big favorite, but we expect a bounce-back performance this week. Houston, meanwhile, is coming off a big performance last week but might be ripe for a letdown. Also, we never have a problem betting against the public flow. We'll give the points here with the Chiefs.

Take the Chiefs -4

In their loss against San Francisco, Cleveland allowed opposing Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to toss two touchdowns while going 20 for 29. I can only imagine what Russell Wilson will do if he is offered the same opportunity. The Brownies also allowed San Fran to produce a 100-yard rusher when Running Back Matt Brieda ran for 115 yards and found the end-zone twice (one by the ground and one through the air). With Wilson being known for being nimble on his feet, this creates another element of peril for Cleveland. Should the Browns show up and offer a spirited effort, they may lose this game by a mere field goal. However, should the Monday Night loss be taken to heart, Cleveland can very well find itself routed on its own yard by the Seahawks. Either way, I am laying the points.

It’s difficult to tell how good the Patriots No. 1 scoring defense really is. They’ve had a soft schedule facing the Dolphins, Jets and Washington who are the bottom three ranked scoring teams this season. That said, they did look good against Pittsburgh in the opener with Big Ben behind center holding the Steelers to three points on 308 yards. The Bills don’t scare anyone with their offense, but they were held to ten points at home in Week 4. The Giants are really shorthanded on offense and a rookie QB heading into Foxborough is never a good thing. The Pats have held four of their five opponents to ten or fewer points and all five opponents’ offenses to 10 or fewer points. So it’s not a reach to think they can hold the Giants to that number. The New England offense has not been up to par this season and while the Giants are unlikely to put a tough fight in good conditions, the weather has me thinking that the running game will be the Pats go to tonight.

Dallas owns the better running game and the better defense, and that right there is usually enough for us to make a pick on an NFL game. Also, Green Bay is banged up on offense, and Rodgers is not looking like the Rodgers of even two seasons ago. So despite the recent skew in the series between these two teams, we like the Cowboys here for our free NFL pick.

We give Baltimore our handicapping check-marks in the quarterback comparison, the running game, and, despite what happened last week, the run defense. So far in this NFL season, teams that win the rushing yards battle are 40-21 SU, 35-25 ATS. So, we're giving the points with the Ravens for our free NFL pick.

Carolina's defense is the best in the NFL against the pass (allowing just 156.8 passing yards per game), and this will undoubtedly make the Jags one-dimensional and likely undermine any heroics that Minshew will look to orchestrate in Charlotte. Sure, the highly-publicized Jaguars running game has a good match-up here against the 24th-ranked Panthers defense (130.8 rushing yards against per game), but Carolina will simply load up the box and dare Minshew to beat them. Given the hostile environs that Jacksonville will be playing in along with the moxie that the Panthers will bode, Jacksonville will have a much taller task in order against the Panthers than it did against the maligned Broncos. Can Carolina win this game by four points? Sure. However, I think this one will be settled by a touchdown at the minimum and concluding in Carolina's favor.

These two teams are very close in ability; both are playing against wins over/unders of 7.5 this season, and both are probably going to win between seven and nine games, depending upon the breaks. This leaves both these teams susceptible to the week-to-week ups and downs of middle-of-the-road teams. Last week Tennessee played up against Atlanta while Buffalo suffered a downer against New England. But we won't be surprised in the least if those roles are reversed this week, even if the Bills have to play their back-up quarterback. We're betting Buffalo plus the points for our free NFL pick here.

The Jets will show up and make this a hard-fought contest. Though New York remains winless on the year, this game has the kind of backdrop that would suggest the Jets could turn their season around should they stage the seemingly unlikely upset. However, Philadelphia was lucky to survive Washington in Week One, and it speaks heavily into Philly's struggles as a double-digit favorite as they have not covered in their last two stints priced within this range. I think the Jets can still potentially win nine games and flirt with post-season possibilities should Darnold return to form when he is back healthy. However, it starts with a catalyst, and this contest could very well be that ignition point. Call me crazy, but I can see the Jets earning a historic win against Philadelphia in perhaps a bizarre set of circumstances. Nevertheless, there are more than enough points on the table here with a side of gravy should takers want seconds.

The Rams got in a big hole early and had to go the air resulting in a dismal 28 yards on 11 rush attempts. I expect them to concentrate on the run game in Seattle and I think they’ll have some success doing so. The Bucs racked up 376 passing yards on the Rams, but I the Seahawks don’t have the personnel for mismatches that Tampa bay had. I look for both teams to run the ball eating up big chunks of the clock in 23-20 type game.

This is a must win for both teams who have begun the year 0-3. The Steelers have won eight consecutive games in this series dating back to the 2015 season and have the home field advantage for the first meeting of 2019. The Steelers won only by three, 16-13 in that game in a reverse situation from tonight’s game. Ben Roethlisberger was behind center for Pittsburgh while back up Jeff Driskel was the QB for Cincinnati. That said, the line is a bit of a sucker line with the odds maker adding in the hook to draw in action on the Bengals. Neither club has been lighting up the scoreboard, so I’m going to take a shot on the total. Cincinnati put up 20 against an undermanned Seahawks team and have followed that up with back to back 17 point outputs. Pittsburgh is just not moving the ball this season on the ground or through the air and are expected to be without their No. 2 option in the passing game TE Vance McDonald.

This game has Broncos written all over it. After all, the Jaguars looked good on their last primetime stint while Denver has yet to win a game this season. Despite these narratives, it is the Broncos and not the Jaguars that are the favored team here. As evidenced there is a good reason for that, and I have no problem laying the Orange Crush here with the field goal as I can see Denver safely winning this game by a touchdown-plus. The Broncos get the job done, earn their first win this season, and will do so emphatically.

With Cook's recent emergence, we rate Minnesota as the most complete team in the NFC North. As long as Cousins doesn't do anything too stupid, we believe the Vikings are going to win this game outright. So we 'rewe're going with Minnesota on the moneyline for our free NFL pick here.

6.5 is a magic number for me to look hard at an underdog because the market is so reluctant to give said team a full touchdown-plus PAT. When it comes to the Browns, this is certainly an understandable practice as this team hung with Los Angeles all throughout their Sunday Night tilt. However, many will judge the performance by the box score and not the actual game played, and this sets up the Brownies to stage the upset. Generally speaking, this figure presented is an upset-conducive number and I firmly believe that the Browns will upset the Ravens here. However, for those that wish to play this a bit more conservative and avoid Cleveland on the Money Line at +245, there are plenty of points to scoff up and advise all to take advantage.

Kansas City is the better team here, especially, obviously, offensively, playing on the road, where the spread is a bit more amenable. So we like the Chiefs for our free NFL pick in this spot.

New York comes in riding a wave of hope while Washington just looks lost. However, the NFL can be a very strange place, where what's riding high one week is often down the next, and vice-versa. Also, even with all the ink, Jones is getting we'll give the Redskins the edge in the quarterback match-up, for the moment, plus they probably own the better defense. It's not easy betting a team that's 0-3 but we'll take Washington and the points for our free NFL pick.

The Packers have played well on defense especially in the secondary that has allowed only 592 combined yards through the air this season. They are banged up in the front seven and may be short a few guys come game time. Offensively, they've struggled to protect QB Rodgers giving up seven sacks but held the Broncos to zero last week.

The Eagles have done OK offensively scoring 20 or more points in all three games this season, but like the Pack their O-line hasn't impressed allowing seven sacks. Part of the problem is a banged-up receiving crew that reports state will be without team yardage leader DeSean Jackson. Fellow WR Alshon Jeffrey has been dealing with a calf issue and hasn't been very effective with five catches for 49 yards. The Philadelphia defense has done a great job against the run holding the opposition to 171 yards on 2.9 yards a carry which may take away the play-action game from Rodgers.

I can see this going two ways, the Eagles going in and beating the Packers outright or a defensive game with a 20-17 score. The total seems the more likely of the two, so that's where my bucks are going to land on this game.

The Bears have put up a combined 19 points in their two games this season, but they have played some decent defenses going up against the Packers (35 points allowed in three games) and the Broncos. They'll face a Washington defense that has allowed over 30 points to both opponents this season, so this may be a breakout game for the Chicago offense.

The 'Skins have moved the ball adequately through the air, and the offensive line has been solid, allowing just two sacks with 81 pass attempts. This will be the toughest test of the season, but the recipe for success for the offense may be a game plan similar to what they used against Philly in their opener when they threw 44 passes putting up 27 points. Sure one of the scores was in garbage time, but they all count versus the total, and that's what I'm playing on this game.

The NFL is a very volatile environment; what's up one week is often down the next, and vice-versa. Houston is coming off a close win, while San Diego – err, Los Angeles – is coming off a tough loss. But this game looks like a good candidate to fall into our “reversal of fortune” theory. We're betting the Chargers here for our free NFL pick.

I was ready to lay the points with Carolina before the Cam Newton news broke so to me this is a value play and a half now that I get the Panthers at a plus-price. The Cardinals have no rushing attack as they curated just 20 yards on the ground in their last outing and they also own one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up 458.5 total yards of offense per game. Moreover, Arizona is 29th against the run (149 rushing yards per game against), and that is bad news considering I expect Carolina to implement a steady dose of playmaking running back Christian McCaffery to alleviate the pressure on Allen and he will feast on this Cardinals defense. Carolina will get their first win this season despite all the experts predicting the "upset" by the underdog-gone-favorite Cardinals.

Philly is not the team it was when it won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago, especially with those injuries on offense. In fact, Detroit probably owns the better running game at the moment and might own the better defense. We're taking the Lions and the points here for our free NFL pick.