NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Buffalo started slowly last week, coming off its bye, but we expect a sharper effort this week. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is playing on the road for the third week in a row, and the first two games didn't go too well. We like the Bills here, giving the short spread at home.

The Jets cannot only cover here, but they can very well win this game outright. Last week's meltdown against New England was a perfect storm of dismay for Gang Green. The Jets could not curate 200 yards of offense, and they turned the ball over six times. With all this considered, the damage could have been far worse. The Jets will circle the wagons and clean things up in their first game back from their disastrous outing and will pose to be a tough out for the Jags.

A lot of matchups don't shake out favorably for the Redskins this week. Sure, they're facing a good defense with an offense that has been anemic lately. And after getting shut out, having to come into this stadium against this team on the short week hardly seems like a time to get relief. I just see the 'Skins' defense keeping the Vikings' offense from exploding. The Redskins offense, and maybe even the defense, can manage a few big plays and make covering this number a little harder than it appears on paper. This is a pick where one can look back after the game and feel pretty stupid, as a lot of signs are there. I just see Washington being gritty enough to eke out a cover on the road this week. I'm taking Washington and the points.

I just sense a little grit this week from the Jets, with some things shaking out for them to help them make a run at this cover. I think last week put them in a decent headspace. Getting some people back helps, as does a defense that can be scrappy in the right situations, at home is one of them. They're nice and dug in at home now. It doesn't help the Pats to have a super banged-up receiver crew, either. I do anticipate a little dreariness from New England this week, not enough perhaps to cause them to lose this game, but sufficiently enough to allow the Jets to squeak out a cover on MNF.

This game should be a dandy, with two very evenly matched teams. But while Jackson can be a lethal double-edged weapon, we just have a bit more confidence in Wilson as a magician. Also, these two teams have already played four common opponents this season; Seattle is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Bengals, Steelers, Cardinals, and Browns, while Baltimore is 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS against those teams. We like the Seahawks for our free NFL pick here.

The Over/Under in this game would suggest that this game will have a defensive connotation to it. Given the fact they own the third-ranked scoring defense (13.8 points per match), these intangibles play heavily into Chicago's favor. When the prospect of inclement weather is tossed into the mix, this puts New Orleans at a considerable disadvantage, given the fact they typically play in a controlled environment. In addition, Chicago is one of the most notoriously hostile environments to play in as a visitor. This is another reason to stay clear of NOLA. While it may not be pretty, and it may come down to the final position, the Bears will get the job done and win this affair by at least four points.

Green Bay was lucky to win Monday night and has now been out-played at least three times this season. Now the Packers are playing on the short week. Oakland, on the other hand, is coming off its bye. Also, dare we say, it looks like the Raiders are making progress under Coach Gruden, out-rushing both of their last two opponents by 100-plus yards. Now they'll go against a Packers defensive giving up 125 yards per game on the ground. We'll take Oakland and the points for our free NFL pick here.

In four of San Francisco's five wins this season, they have won by 13 points or more. In light of all the reasons I would ascribe to Washington being undervalued in this spot, I would have expected the line to be a bit larger because of how dominant San Francisco has been against the field at-large. When analyzing and breaking down the angles, I would suspect that had Washington won and/or covered once or twice over their five-game ATS skid that the number presented would have been below a touchdown. The fact remains that given the difference in quality between both parties that the line is a bit soft. After all, Buffalo is laying 17 to Miami (the team that Washington beat by a point) this weekend, and they have actually lost a game. Be that as it may, we have yet to see San Francisco truly play down to the level of their competition this season, and this scenario fits the bill to where the potential for that to happen is high. San Francisco will win, but there will be a scare. I have this game being settled by one score. Grab the points.

A position on Denver is defensible based on some matchup components. They run the ball, and the Chiefs can't stop the run. Meanwhile, the Chiefs throw a lot, which is the strength of the Denver defense. In addition, Mahomes is banged up and on the short week, competing against a good defense in a tough place to play. Even with the Chiefs in full-flight last season and Denver largely impotent, the Broncos still hung in there in both games. But this pick is almost more in the spirit of endorsing the heart, guts, and resolve of a Chiefs team that will be pining for something good to happen. I see them putting their superior firepower to work, getting the win and cover at Mile High this week.

In a tight divisional game, I think Detroit’s inability to close games on a few occasions and some dings in the injury department are drawbacks in this matchup. But the Lions are a rising team, showing better signs on both sides of the ball. I see this as being a more-urgent spot for them, and for what it's worth, they've beaten the Packers four straight times. Now, they're getting points, and I see a tight game with the Lions covering the spread.

I can easily see the Bolts taking out their frustration from last week’s loss on the Steelers and using the national stage to send a message to the rest of the league. Should Rudolph not be ready to roll for this affair, Los Angeles can run away with this game early and never look back. Be that as it may, Los Angeles should win this game by a touchdown at minimum. However, I see this game having blowout written all over it. Chargers win big and cover easy.

Minnesota owns the better running game and the better defense, and that's enough for us. We like the Vikings giving the points here.

Kansas City got caught napping last week, losing outright as a big favorite, but we expect a bounce-back performance this week. Houston, meanwhile, is coming off a big performance last week but might be ripe for a letdown. Also, we never have a problem betting against the public flow. We'll give the points here with the Chiefs.

Take the Chiefs -4

In their loss against San Francisco, Cleveland allowed opposing Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to toss two touchdowns while going 20 for 29. I can only imagine what Russell Wilson will do if he is offered the same opportunity. The Brownies also allowed San Fran to produce a 100-yard rusher when Running Back Matt Brieda ran for 115 yards and found the end-zone twice (one by the ground and one through the air). With Wilson being known for being nimble on his feet, this creates another element of peril for Cleveland. Should the Browns show up and offer a spirited effort, they may lose this game by a mere field goal. However, should the Monday Night loss be taken to heart, Cleveland can very well find itself routed on its own yard by the Seahawks. Either way, I am laying the points.

It’s difficult to tell how good the Patriots No. 1 scoring defense really is. They’ve had a soft schedule facing the Dolphins, Jets and Washington who are the bottom three ranked scoring teams this season. That said, they did look good against Pittsburgh in the opener with Big Ben behind center holding the Steelers to three points on 308 yards. The Bills don’t scare anyone with their offense, but they were held to ten points at home in Week 4. The Giants are really shorthanded on offense and a rookie QB heading into Foxborough is never a good thing. The Pats have held four of their five opponents to ten or fewer points and all five opponents’ offenses to 10 or fewer points. So it’s not a reach to think they can hold the Giants to that number. The New England offense has not been up to par this season and while the Giants are unlikely to put a tough fight in good conditions, the weather has me thinking that the running game will be the Pats go to tonight.

Dallas owns the better running game and the better defense, and that right there is usually enough for us to make a pick on an NFL game. Also, Green Bay is banged up on offense, and Rodgers is not looking like the Rodgers of even two seasons ago. So despite the recent skew in the series between these two teams, we like the Cowboys here for our free NFL pick.

We give Baltimore our handicapping check-marks in the quarterback comparison, the running game, and, despite what happened last week, the run defense. So far in this NFL season, teams that win the rushing yards battle are 40-21 SU, 35-25 ATS. So, we're giving the points with the Ravens for our free NFL pick.

Carolina's defense is the best in the NFL against the pass (allowing just 156.8 passing yards per game), and this will undoubtedly make the Jags one-dimensional and likely undermine any heroics that Minshew will look to orchestrate in Charlotte. Sure, the highly-publicized Jaguars running game has a good match-up here against the 24th-ranked Panthers defense (130.8 rushing yards against per game), but Carolina will simply load up the box and dare Minshew to beat them. Given the hostile environs that Jacksonville will be playing in along with the moxie that the Panthers will bode, Jacksonville will have a much taller task in order against the Panthers than it did against the maligned Broncos. Can Carolina win this game by four points? Sure. However, I think this one will be settled by a touchdown at the minimum and concluding in Carolina's favor.

These two teams are very close in ability; both are playing against wins over/unders of 7.5 this season, and both are probably going to win between seven and nine games, depending upon the breaks. This leaves both these teams susceptible to the week-to-week ups and downs of middle-of-the-road teams. Last week Tennessee played up against Atlanta while Buffalo suffered a downer against New England. But we won't be surprised in the least if those roles are reversed this week, even if the Bills have to play their back-up quarterback. We're betting Buffalo plus the points for our free NFL pick here.

The Jets will show up and make this a hard-fought contest. Though New York remains winless on the year, this game has the kind of backdrop that would suggest the Jets could turn their season around should they stage the seemingly unlikely upset. However, Philadelphia was lucky to survive Washington in Week One, and it speaks heavily into Philly's struggles as a double-digit favorite as they have not covered in their last two stints priced within this range. I think the Jets can still potentially win nine games and flirt with post-season possibilities should Darnold return to form when he is back healthy. However, it starts with a catalyst, and this contest could very well be that ignition point. Call me crazy, but I can see the Jets earning a historic win against Philadelphia in perhaps a bizarre set of circumstances. Nevertheless, there are more than enough points on the table here with a side of gravy should takers want seconds.