NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Despite last week's outcome, the Chargers are more apt to find a way to lose a game this season, while the Packers are finding ways to win games. Somewhere along the line, we expect Rodgers to come through with a big play or two, while Rivers seems prone to making mistakes. Also, Green Bay ranks third in the League with a +7 turnover ratio this season, while San Diego ranks 23rd at -3, and the Packers rank fifth in a time of possession at 31:55 while the Chargers rank 19th at 29:19. We're backing the Pack here for our free NFL pick.

We don't expect Mahomes to play Sunday, and while Moore wasn't bad last week, it's just not the same. Meanwhile, Minnesota owns the better running game and the better run defense. We're going with the Vikings here for our free NFL pick.

Philadelphia seems rejuvenated after last week's win in Buffalo, while Chicago must be down after last week's excruciating loss. But the NFL can be a strange place and attempts to psychoanalyze teams often prove futile. Ultimately we view these two teams as very equal, neither great nor bad, and very susceptible to the weekly ups-and-downs most NFL teams experience. That's why we're betting the Bears here, plus the points.

The 49ers haven’t beaten the Cardinals since 2014, so sure that may give them the motivation needed to cover this spread. That said, they are coming off a complete massacre of the Panthers, have a short week to come down to earth, and have an important foe in Seattle on deck. The total is the way to play this game. San Francisco ranks second in the league in scoring defense, allowing 11 points per game and first in total yards allowed per game (224.4). The 49ers are all about running the ball, and while Tevin Coleman looked fantastic in place of M. Breida, it was one game. The Cards' most glaring weakness on defense is in the secondary, and that is not something that SF hasn't proven that they can exploit. Arizona scored nine points last week against the Saints; the third time this season that they have scored 17 or fewer points. My numbers have the Niners scoring 20 to 23 points and the Cards 10 to 14.

I don’t question that Miami is showing more life or that this isn’t a spot where they can thrive against a Steelers’ team that is compromised. Plus, this Steelers team, as large favorites, leaves something to be desired. There just seem to be some matchup areas where it’s going to be hard for Miami to negotiate. Against a Steelers’ defense that has gotten its act together the last few weeks, I see their stiffness and big-play ability being enough to turn this one in their favor. I see the Steelers seizing on some mistakes and getting out of this one with the win and the cover.

Green Bay (obviously) owns the advantage in the quarterback match-up, and with most other factors balancing out should win this game. But that Packers defense is still a bit iffy, and Moore can be effective. In fact, Kansas City might be forced to find more balance on offense without Mahomes, and that would be a good thing. NFL home dogs are having a tough 2019 so far, but we like the Chiefs and the points for our free NFL pick here.

Will Cleveland upset New England in Foxboro? I doubt that. However, the Browns can undoubtedly hang around in this game and come in under the number. After all, the Patriots have shown that they can play down to the level of their competition. Previous to their encounter with the Jets, the Patriots led the New York Giants and Washington Redskins by a mere touchdown at halftime in their respective matches against them. However, the difference between the Browns with the Giants and Redskins is that Cleveland has the offensive firepower to make this a four-quarter game. New England won't be able to pull away as easy, and even if New England takes control, back-door potential also exists in this affair. Grab the points.

San Francisco holds several statistical advantages here, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The 49ers have really only played one quality opponent this season, and their passing game is a bit iffy. Meanwhile, Carolina is playing some spirited ball with Allen, and scat-back Christian McCaffrey is dangerous. Plus, 5.5 points is a lot in the NFL this season. They might not win this game outright, but we're playing the Panthers plus the points for our free NFL pick here.

Buffalo started slowly last week, coming off its bye, but we expect a sharper effort this week. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is playing on the road for the third week in a row, and the first two games didn't go too well. We like the Bills here, giving the short spread at home.

The Jets cannot only cover here, but they can very well win this game outright. Last week's meltdown against New England was a perfect storm of dismay for Gang Green. The Jets could not curate 200 yards of offense, and they turned the ball over six times. With all this considered, the damage could have been far worse. The Jets will circle the wagons and clean things up in their first game back from their disastrous outing and will pose to be a tough out for the Jags.

A lot of matchups don't shake out favorably for the Redskins this week. Sure, they're facing a good defense with an offense that has been anemic lately. And after getting shut out, having to come into this stadium against this team on the short week hardly seems like a time to get relief. I just see the 'Skins' defense keeping the Vikings' offense from exploding. The Redskins offense, and maybe even the defense, can manage a few big plays and make covering this number a little harder than it appears on paper. This is a pick where one can look back after the game and feel pretty stupid, as a lot of signs are there. I just see Washington being gritty enough to eke out a cover on the road this week. I'm taking Washington and the points.

I just sense a little grit this week from the Jets, with some things shaking out for them to help them make a run at this cover. I think last week put them in a decent headspace. Getting some people back helps, as does a defense that can be scrappy in the right situations, at home is one of them. They're nice and dug in at home now. It doesn't help the Pats to have a super banged-up receiver crew, either. I do anticipate a little dreariness from New England this week, not enough perhaps to cause them to lose this game, but sufficiently enough to allow the Jets to squeak out a cover on MNF.

This game should be a dandy, with two very evenly matched teams. But while Jackson can be a lethal double-edged weapon, we just have a bit more confidence in Wilson as a magician. Also, these two teams have already played four common opponents this season; Seattle is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Bengals, Steelers, Cardinals, and Browns, while Baltimore is 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS against those teams. We like the Seahawks for our free NFL pick here.

The Over/Under in this game would suggest that this game will have a defensive connotation to it. Given the fact they own the third-ranked scoring defense (13.8 points per match), these intangibles play heavily into Chicago's favor. When the prospect of inclement weather is tossed into the mix, this puts New Orleans at a considerable disadvantage, given the fact they typically play in a controlled environment. In addition, Chicago is one of the most notoriously hostile environments to play in as a visitor. This is another reason to stay clear of NOLA. While it may not be pretty, and it may come down to the final position, the Bears will get the job done and win this affair by at least four points.

Green Bay was lucky to win Monday night and has now been out-played at least three times this season. Now the Packers are playing on the short week. Oakland, on the other hand, is coming off its bye. Also, dare we say, it looks like the Raiders are making progress under Coach Gruden, out-rushing both of their last two opponents by 100-plus yards. Now they'll go against a Packers defensive giving up 125 yards per game on the ground. We'll take Oakland and the points for our free NFL pick here.

In four of San Francisco's five wins this season, they have won by 13 points or more. In light of all the reasons I would ascribe to Washington being undervalued in this spot, I would have expected the line to be a bit larger because of how dominant San Francisco has been against the field at-large. When analyzing and breaking down the angles, I would suspect that had Washington won and/or covered once or twice over their five-game ATS skid that the number presented would have been below a touchdown. The fact remains that given the difference in quality between both parties that the line is a bit soft. After all, Buffalo is laying 17 to Miami (the team that Washington beat by a point) this weekend, and they have actually lost a game. Be that as it may, we have yet to see San Francisco truly play down to the level of their competition this season, and this scenario fits the bill to where the potential for that to happen is high. San Francisco will win, but there will be a scare. I have this game being settled by one score. Grab the points.

A position on Denver is defensible based on some matchup components. They run the ball, and the Chiefs can't stop the run. Meanwhile, the Chiefs throw a lot, which is the strength of the Denver defense. In addition, Mahomes is banged up and on the short week, competing against a good defense in a tough place to play. Even with the Chiefs in full-flight last season and Denver largely impotent, the Broncos still hung in there in both games. But this pick is almost more in the spirit of endorsing the heart, guts, and resolve of a Chiefs team that will be pining for something good to happen. I see them putting their superior firepower to work, getting the win and cover at Mile High this week.

In a tight divisional game, I think Detroit’s inability to close games on a few occasions and some dings in the injury department are drawbacks in this matchup. But the Lions are a rising team, showing better signs on both sides of the ball. I see this as being a more-urgent spot for them, and for what it's worth, they've beaten the Packers four straight times. Now, they're getting points, and I see a tight game with the Lions covering the spread.

I can easily see the Bolts taking out their frustration from last week’s loss on the Steelers and using the national stage to send a message to the rest of the league. Should Rudolph not be ready to roll for this affair, Los Angeles can run away with this game early and never look back. Be that as it may, Los Angeles should win this game by a touchdown at minimum. However, I see this game having blowout written all over it. Chargers win big and cover easy.

Minnesota owns the better running game and the better defense, and that's enough for us. We like the Vikings giving the points here.