NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Most signs point toward Green Bay here; the Packers are averaging 41 points per game, they're running the ball well, and while they're allowing 28 PPG, part of that has been situational. Meanwhile, Atlanta's blown big leads the last two weeks. However, the Falcons were also good enough to build those big leads in the first place. Green Bay is ranked in the top three in most NFL power rankings, Atlanta in the 20s, but realistically these teams are closer than that. They might not win this game outright, but we like the Falcons and the points here.

The combination of the 49ers’ injury problems and the Eagles’ urgency to get in the win-column before their season officially capsizes could make Philly an appeal underdog choice this week after they flopped three weeks in a row as the favorite. You can never completely dismiss the heart of a champion, and it could surface here. At some point, however, you either have the horses on offense, or you don't. And it's going to take a special spot to forecast success for the Eagles' offense, as I don’t see it surfacing this week. I’ll lay the number on the 49ers.

Baltimore is 21-3 with Lamar Jackson starting at QB, but 0-2 against Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs are coming off a less-than-wonderful performance last week against the Chargers, but we expect better this week. And we're getting three and a hook? We'll take KC and the points.

I think the Green Bay "D" is better than they've shown in weeks one and two, where the "D" did well when it mattered. Losing Michael Thomas might not be an easy loss for the Saints to camouflage, as he was a valuable tool on this offense in many ways, and without him, the whole dynamic changes. While gifted with a back in Kamara who can do a lot of damage aerially and a good tight end in Jared Cook, they're a little strapped for wide receiver talent with Thomas out of the mix. Green Bay could be in a similar predicament if Adams isn't ready to go. I still see a tight game where taking the points seems like a good idea. I'm taking the Packers.</p>

I believe Washington is definitely capable of the upset in this game and just needs a few big plays on offense to make it happen. I would not be surprised to see Washington's defense come up big similar to their Week 1 efforts against Philadelphia. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games going back to 2019, and I think that streak continues.

The Saints produced less than 300 yards of total offense last week, and now they're without Thomas. So those 34 points they scored are a bit misleading. Meanwhile, the Raiders are now in their third season under Gruden. In his first go-around as head coach of this franchise, starting back in 1998, the Raiders played 16-16 through his first two seasons, then jumped to 12-4 and made the AFC championship game in his third. We're not saying they'll win 12 games this season, but we won't be all that surprised if they win 9-10. With that in mind, we'll take Vegas and points for our free NFL pick for Monday night.

Seattle's defense might be porous, but I'm not sure New England can take full advantage, at least not aerially. I see a coming down to earth for the Patriots this week in this road-spot, and it's worth mentioning they are the most depleted team in terms of coronavirus-related opt-outs, with their O-line and the "D" most hit. The Patriots could be very competitive in what should still be a hard-fought game, but I see the far greater spark on the Seattle offense playing the dominant role in this game. I'm taking Seattle.</p>

It is always a challenge finding perceived value in the Week 1 lines, but even more so this season with not even some preseason action to analyze. I'm going to go with the trend in this series, which has seen seven or fewer points decide the last three games. The weather forecast is calling for a chance of rain and winds up to 15 MPH, so the run game should play a big part in today's game. No question the Bills had the better rushing game last season but the Jets offensive line has been retooled, and I still have faith in RB L.Bell returning to form. I expect another close match taking the points as the way to bet this.

I really like the Bears +3 at Bovada potential with Foles at quarterback, and I also think this match-up against the Colts is favorable. I would expect a low scoring game with the Bears controlling things late.

San Francisco will try to control this game with its running game and its defense. Kansas City, on the other hand, will just try to outscore the 49ers. Most importantly, though, as far as betting the total goes, this game looks like it should be close throughout, which leads us to think about the under. The two recent Super Bowls that played under were also close throughout, while several recent Super Bowls that played over did so in part because one team took a big lead, then let the other rally. We don't see that happening here. We're betting the under for Super Bowl LIV.

Anyone who is too sure-headed about this pick has likely missed the boat. It’s good to feel confident about your pick, but the tight point spread truly attests to a hard-to-pick game where any number of different eventualities are plausible. It’s hard to go against a Chiefs team that has won 8 straight games with the most bankable QB in the business. I just see the 49ers taking advantage of the Chiefs’ defense to a greater degree, with enough big plays from their own defense to secure the big Super Bowl win. I’ll take the Niners.

San Francisco is just the much more impressive team in this match-up. The 49ers own the better running game and the much better defense, and usually, that's enough for us right there. Also, of San Francisco's 14 wins this season, nine came by at least nine points. Meanwhile, Green Bay's been playing with fire all season long. It's almost hard to figure how the Packers have gotten this far. The 49ers might not win this one by 29 points, but eight would suffice. We like San Francisco here.