College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Both teams have played extremely well in this tournament after suffering a tough loss in their conference tournament, but I am leaning towards the Cougars taking another step towards the NIT title with a win on Tuesday night as slight underdogs. BYU has just too much firepower when it comes to scoring and it is peaking at just the right time.
North Carolina is a perfect 10-0 in neutral site games and comes into this match playing the best basketball they have all season. They absolutely destroyed clubs in this tournament with their lowest margin of victory being 16 points. They had the advantage of playing the Fighting Irish on their home court in the last meeting and will play this on a neutral court, but it wasn't even close with the Tar Heels holding a 19-point lead at the break before coasting to a 31-point margin. Don't let the 86 points allowed to Indiana fool you. UNC's defense has really stepped it up over their last five which included the last meeting between these two clubs allowing just 64.6 points on 38.4 shooting. No reason to think that North Carolina doesn't come close to a repeat of their last game. ND gets closer this time around, but doesn't get within the line.
We are not huge proponents of playing chalk but Virginia's defense and their efficient shooting makes them a lethal opponent for any team they encounter. Offense wins games but defense wins championships and we saw the cost of not being able to stop an opponent from shooting well or relying on one's offense and the ultimate result with both Kansas and Oregon exiting as No. 1 seeds yesterday. However, Virginia is a No. 1 seed for good reason. The Cavaliers have been absolutely dominant on defense all year long and they are playing a Syracuse team that has taken advantage of a watered-down bracket all tournament long. Cuse beat overrated No. 17 Dayton, upset artist No. 15 Middle Tennessee State and No. 11 Gonzaga who entered the Sweet 16 off of crushing No. 3 Utah, which is not an achievement despite popular opinion. The Hoos took down No. 16 Hampton but then followed up that outcome with impressive defeats of No. 9 Butler and No. 4 Iowa State. UVA has had the more difficult path to the Elite 8 and Syracuse has taken advantage of their name and the chips falling in their favor.
You could make an argument that these two clubs are the top two in not just their region, but also in the tournament. Kansas has been brilliant with 17 straight victories averaging 179.5 points per game failing to reach or exceed 72 points in just three of those games. Villanova doesn't have the same win streak, but they've been very good in the tournament crushing all three opponents with winning margins of 30, 19 and 23 while scoring an average of 88.3 points. The three ball has come alive for Nova with 33 over the three game span. The Jayhawks have been respectable defending the three for most of the season, but it can be a problem for them with three of their losses coming when their opponent has lit it up from behind the arc. I'm calling for both teams to be able in the 70's and in the end an over result on this game.
Given Oregon's troubles against the three, this match-up can be a frightening prospect for the Quack Attack. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma's best player has been unstoppable this tournament. Hield has single-handedly dominated games for OU and landed several critical threes from three-point range. In his three tournament appearances, Hield has scored 27, 36 and 17, he is also a 45.8% three-point shooter and Oregon may not have the tools to curtail this superstar. Reaction also plays a keep role in this match-up. Oregon put the wood to a defending champion and simply outplayed them. Oklahoma has been skating by against marginal competition for the most part and have had to resort theatrics to pull away in the late stages of their tournament fixtures. Oklahoma also laid waste to a team that many thought was a fluke to be where they were (Texas A&M), so expectations were different. Nevertheless, this is the perfect sell-high scenario for Oregon coming in off a big win.
This is the ideal scenario to get on the Tar Heels. Indiana's price is soaring after they dismissed Kentucky in the Round of 32. Beating Chattanooga does not say much, the Mocs have been an offensive oriented club all year long and prayed on cupcakes in the Southern in route to their tournament bid. The same can actually be said for Kentucky, who took advantage of an inexperienced Stony Brook team in the first round and entered as SEC Champion. Nevertheless, the SEC compared to many other Power Conferences had a down year, the accolade does not boast as much. Bottom line, Indiana entered as a #1 seed in the Big 10 tournament and they were gone in the first round. UNC ran a gauntlet in the ACC Championship against two of the remaining sixteen teams in this tournament and prevailed as the ACC Champ and top seed for a reason, UNC should get their licks.
This game is likely going to be nip and tuck all the way through. In making a pick, this one was a difficult one to dissect but at the end of the day the victor will likely be the team that shoots the ball better from downtown. However, be that Notre Dame can't finish games and they can't play a complete game, the Badgers will likely malinger. Notre Dame had to resort to theatrics as a significant favorite in both outings to overcome an overrated Michigan team and the aforementioned Lumberjacks. Wiscy knocked off two teams they were underdogs against. Wisconsin also has a previous track record of winning in high-stakes game of this nature. With all these variables considered, the market is likely very sharp and on-point in this one, the reaction suggests so. Notre Dame will likely prevail but once again by the skin of their teeth.
Both teams have a high 3-point shooting average and have proven that on most nights they can do a better than adequate job defending the three. The Cavs' really slow the game down limiting opponents' opportunities and rarely turn the ball over to rank No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense with 59.5 points per game allowed. In two of Virginia's last three games they took on two teams in the top 20 ranked scoring offenses prior to the game. UNC scored 61 over 20 points fewer than their season average and Butler put up 69 which was 9.5 points lower than their average. My numbers put this game in the mid 130's.
As proclaimed recently, the Pac-12 is overrated. Gonzaga's recent rout of the last team from this conference to stand aside Oregon, Utah is even more evidence to solidify this opinion. Coach K is a true strategist and his game plan will likely focus on taking advantage of this mismatch. Duke knows how to execute in big games. The Blue Devils have taken down bigger monsters, as they were the first team to hand #1 seed UNC a loss in Chapel Hill this year. Duke in that game was grossly undervalued as well and they broke a lot of bettor's hearts when they beat the Tar Heels outright. Heading in to the affair, there was a large populous against Duke and the rest is history. Now a true tournament power is available with points and thus offers tremendous value.
With teams like Kansas, inflated point spreads are a norm, yet it has been profitable up to now over the span of the tournament. Market perception and psychology are the driving forces and KU are assessed as an even tastier take against a Maryland club that many feel have yet to face what many perceive as a true quality opponent. As a result, some may say that the Terps don't truly belong where they are and they are another victim to be dismantled by the Jayhawks. On the contrary, Maryland may have very well been lying in wait for this opportunity and will likely enter this game with a huge chip on their shoulder. Teams with this attitude that seemingly have nothing to lose but still have something to prove are a dangerous option to go against.
The Aggies had no business getting the win against a very good but under-rated Northern Iowa club after trailing by double digits in the last minute of regulation, but they did. This is a team that has been on quite a roll with a 10-1 SU record in their last 11 matches with the single loss being to Kentucky in overtime. Texas A&M hasn't played Oklahoma since late in 2013, but they did have some games against Big 12 competition this season. They played four games against their former conference (Texas, Kansas State, Baylor and Iowa State) winning all four with an average winning score of 78.5 to 66.0 and the margin of victory of 10 or greater in each match. Oklahoma is battled tested for sure with 11 games against teams ranking in the top 25 RPI and an additional five versus the top 50. Their record of 10-6 in those games is good, but isn't overly impressive when compared to the Aggies 5-1 versus the same with their only loss being in OT to Kentucky.
This should be a great battle between two teams boasting a solid backcourt combination of veteran players and you get the feeling that the game will be won or lost in this particular matchup. While I think the Wildcats can squeeze-out the SU win, I still like Miami and the 4.5 points on BetOnline's current spread as my "best bet" pick.
No. 10 seed VCU sent Oregon's arch-nemesis Oregon State packing in the first round. Let the Oregon State/VCU result serve as a barometer of what can happen to those banking on the Power Conference/Mid-Major Conference angle. The Pac-12 and its membership have shown no resemblance to that of a power conference. In the opening round, California, Oregon State and Arizona were all eliminated at the hands of mid-major opposition. Vehemently, we stress that the Ducks fell to Stanford, they were run out of Berkeley by California, were owned by Oregon State and they loss to teams like Boise State and UNLV. St. Joe's is better than any of the aforementioned clubs that were able to pull off a win against this hallowed Pac-12 heavyweight. Given the amount of points offered against a squad that has gobbled up an impressive menu of opponents, St. Joe's offers substantial value. It would not be shocking by the least if the Hawks were to swoop in and ruin the Ducks' Final Four bid.
Wisconsin was all out to beat a Pittsburgh team that had gone 4-7 in its last 11 games and their 17 points scored in the first 20 minutes sure doesn't make me feel confident that they can have success scoring against Xavier that allows five fewer points less than their seasonal average in neutral site games. The Badgers did return to playing a strong defensive game allowing 60 or fewer points for the fifth time in their last seven games. They'll need to slow the game down to limit the Musketeers' scoring chances to have any chance here.
Both of these teams come into this game sharp but Kentucky has been much more impressive on a neutral court. The Hoosiers have gone just 3-3 in these type games beating a decent Notre Dame team but the other two victories came against Cream puff St. John's and an overmatched Chattanooga in their tournament opener. The three losses were not to top ranked clubs losing to Wake Forest, UNLV and Michigan. Kentucky on the other hand reseume on a neutral court is rock solid beating Duke, South Florida, Ohio State in regular season play before beating Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M in the SEC Tourney and Stony Creek in their opening match in the NCAA tournament. Lay the points.
Despite the score indicating otherwise, Miami struggled against Buffalo in their first round match-up. The Canes are 7-7 in the tournament all-time and have never won more than two games in any tournament appearance. Like many teams which we saw exit early in this tournament, Miami struggles when they are not in their own backyard. Miami is 9-6 away from Coral Gables and they are facing a team likely with more tournament experience than them. The Shockers are not entering this tournament with a target on their back, they come in with less pressure. There is no 34-0 record to defend, nor are they on any analysts' radar with Kansas, Maryland and Villanova still alive in their bracket. Still, the Shockers prey on teams that focus on their offensive prowess. Miami is another team that is susceptible to befalling such a fate.
No 16 seed has ever beat a 1 seed in the first round of the Men's Tournament but if there was ever a scenario that may heighten speculation, it is in fact this match-up. The amount of points Oregon is spotting is comparable to the price in taking Kansas or Virginia against Austin Peay or Hampton. While both these teams covered, Oregon is not as good a team as either of the two. Oregon does not have the body of work, reflective of a true No.1 seed and the relentless fight of Holy Cross has led the Crusaders to achieve the unfathomable. Even if Holy Cross are to exit early, they are certainly be primed to go down swinging and give the Ducks in a fight.
We don't expect too much drama from this Big 12 tournament, Kansas is the likely champion. But that price on the Jayhawks is just too damn chalky. So instead, we'll look to the second tier on the Big 12 tournament betting board, where we find West Virginia. Yes, the Mountaineers open with Oklahoma, to whom they've already lost twice this season, but we've also heard it's difficult to beat a team three times in one campaign. And if Coach Huggins' troops can get past the Sooners, they'll meet Baylor, who they just beat, in the semifinals. And both losses to Kansas this season were close. At 10/1, we like the value here with West Virginia.