Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Point Spread Pick - Odds - Free ATS Prediction

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Tennessee defeated Seattle 33-27 last Sunday. Houston allowed a last-minute TD in a 36-33 loss to New England last week.
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The Titans are averaging 156 ypg on the ground and look for the two-headed monster at RB (Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray) to get lots of carries in this encounter. The Texans run defense isn’t as stout as in previous years and they will need to stack the line to consistently control the line of scrimmage. If this happens, QB Marcus Mariota has the weapons at his disposal to make the defense pay. WR Rishard Matthews and TE Delanie Walker are his top targets but Mariota has improved at spreading the ball around and not focusing only on these two. Houston had 5 sacks last week but only 3 in their first 2 games and DE J.J. Watt has zero on the year. Mariota has been sacked only twice this season as the o-line has really improved their pass blocking. The Texans need to generate a pass rush and be very stout vs. the run to contain this suddenly dynamic offense (30 ppg in 2017).
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The Texans are breaking in a rookie QB with predictable results. Deshaun Watson has thrown 3 TD passes so far this year but also 3 picks. His running ability has been huge as he has amassed 124 yards on 15 carries. This is where Tennessee has to be concerned. They need to keep Watson in the pocket and make him beat them through the air. Houston averages 129 ypg on the ground but the Titans are allowing fewer than 4 ypc. They finally seem to be settling into DC Dick Lebeau’s system. WR DeAndre Hopkins is the only player on offense with 10+ receptions so expect Tennessee to pay special attention to him on passing downs. Watson and QB Tom Savage have been sacked a combined 15 times as the o-line has had their issues with pass protection. LeBeau will dial up some exotic blitz packages in an attempt to rattle the young QB.
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Public Money Consensus<br />
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In this Week 4 NFL matchup between Tennessee and Houston have the public leaning slightly to the Titans to cover the 1.5 points with 56%. The over under bettors are also just slightly leaning to this game going over the posted total line of 44 with just 60%.
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