Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints Odds - Free ATS Pick

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Los Angeles blew a late lead to fall 14-10 to Miami on Sunday. New Orleans staged a furious 4th-quarter rally but fell short in a 23-20 loss to Carolina last Thursday.
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Los Angeles gave the keys to the offense to rookie QB Jared Goff last week with mixed results. He completed 17-31 passes for 134 yards and was sacked once. While he didn’t throw a TD pass, he didn’t commit any TOs either. New Orleans had been surrendering 293 passing ypg before last week when they gave up only 173 to the Panthers. Pass defense has long been a bugaboo for the Saints defense but they are facing one of the weakest passing attacks in the league this week. The Rams lack a go-to receiver although WR Kenny Britt has done his best to assert himself in 2016. He remains an inconsistent producer on a game-to-game basis however. RB Todd Gurley was expected to carry the offense this season but has been limited to less than 3.5 ypc on the year. He netted 76 yards last week but needed 20 carries to get there. New Orleans’ run defense is much better than their pass defense, especially when facing a weaker passing game. They held Carolina to only 50 yards rushing on 27 carries last week and they should be ready for Gurley.
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The Saints are averaging in excess of 300 ypg through the air and I expect that to continue this week. The Rams have done an excellent job in pass defense this season (216 ypg) but I expect their defense to wear down in the second half. They held on for 55 minutes last week before giving up 2 TDs to a Miami offense that isn’t as good as New Orleans. RB Mark Ingram (questionable) left last week’s game with a head injury but veteran RB Tim Hightower continues his unexpected comeback and will get plenty of carries this week to keep the defense honest. Los Angeles had only 16 sacks before netting 4 against the Dolphins. QB Drew Brees has a 26-8 TD/INT ratio and has done a great job of keeping mistakes to a minimum. He has 3 top wideouts to throw to (Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and rookie Michael Thomas) as well as TE Cody Fleener. He does a good job of spreading the ball around and I expect him to go with whatever favorable matchup presents itself as the game goes on.
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Public Money Consensus<br />
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This Thanksgiving Weekend matchup between Rams and the Saints see’s the public heavily favoring New Orleans to cover the 7 point spread with 77% conviction. The over/under bettors are pretty much split on whether this will go over the total of 46 points.
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