Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans Point Spread - Free NFL Pick
Date:
January 9, 4:35 pm
Location:
NRG Stadium
Betting Odds
Point Spread:
Kansas City -3.5
Total:
40
<p>Kansas City defeated Oakland 23-17 on Sunday. Houston clinched the AFC South title with a 30-6 pounding of Jacksonville last week. The Chiefs won the Week 1 matchup 27-20.
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<p>One of the reasons the Chiefs have won 10 games in a row is because their offense remains one of the most balanced in the league. Despite the loss of RB Jamaal Charles, they still averaged 127.8 ypg on the ground and 4.7 ypc. RBs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West will both get carries and QB Alex Smith actually finished 2nd on the team with 498 yards, at a healthy 5.9 ypc. The Texans held opponents to 99.8 ypg on the ground this year and need to attack this offense up front. KC is committed to the run and will look to wear down Houston in the second half. Smith threw only 7 interceptions this season but threw 2 last week. The Texans surrendered 24 TD passes on the year and couldn't handle TE Travis Kelce in the first meeting. Kelce is the No.2 target behind WR Jeremy Maclin, a player who finally gave Smith someone to throw to on the outside. Smith won't force the action and had better get rid of the ball quickly. He was sacked 45 times in 2015 and must contend with the duo of DE J.J. Watt (17.5 sacks) and OLB Whitney Mercilus (12).
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<p>Houston had to turn to other RBs as well this year after RB Arian Foster went down. RB Alfred Blue has gotten the lion's share of the carries but averaged only 3.8 ypc on 183 attempts. Houston attempted 472 rushes, 36 more than Kansas City. They will also stick with the run but are more likely to abandon it if they get behind early. QB Brian Hoyer was benched when these teams played in Week 1 but is clearly the starter now. He finished with 19 TD passes and only 7 picks. This will be the first time he's played in a playoff game so expect some early jitters. He also has to deal with a pass rush that netted 47 sacks on the year despite the absences of OLBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Both are expected to play in this game and Pro Bowl LT Duane Brown is now on IR. OT Chris Clark will be given the job of neutralizing this pair and that will be a tall order. WR DeAndre Hopkins had a banner season, finishing with 111 catches, 1,521 yards and 11 TDs. He is one of the Top 5 receivers in the game and the Chiefs have to be aware of him on every play. Houston has average talent behind Hopkins at receiver.</p>
<div class="heading">Consensus Picks</div>
<p>Chiefs 58% Under 52%</p>
Free Wild Card ATS Pick
The Chiefs' defense is playing at a high level right now and hasn't allowed any opponent to reach 23 points since Week 4. The return of Houston is bound to help the pass rush and Hoyer may need to throw the ball quicker than he would like. I think Kansas City can do enough offensively to get into the end zone and if they can take Hopkins away on defense, they'll force the Texans to try to make big plays with players who haven't done much on the season. It has been a good year for Houston but I'll take the Chiefs in this one as their offense and defense are both playing well at this stage.
Free Pick:
Take the Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
