Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Pick ATS
Date:
September 30, 8:20 pm
Location:
Paul Brown Stadium
TV:
NFL Network
Betting Odds
Point Spread:
Jack +7.5/Cin -7.5
Total:
45.5
<p>The last two No. 1 picks in the NFL draft meet up when Joe Burrow's Bengals host Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars for this week's edition of Thursday night football. Cincinnati is coming off a rivalry victory over Pittsburgh last week, while Jacksonville is looking to halt an 18-game losing skid. </p>
<p>The Bengals are favored by a touchdown and a hook for this one; how are we playing this game with our <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/nfl/free-nfl-picks" title="NFL Week 4 Picks">TNF Week 4 pick</a>? </p>
<h2>NFL Betting Lines</h2>
<p>The Week 4 NFL betting odds opened Cincinnati at -7 over Jacksonville, with an over/under of right around 46. Early betting action then tagged that spread with a hook and dipped that total to 45.5 but can be found at <a class="advblue"href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/sportsbooks/bovada" title="Bovada Sportsbook Review">Bovada </a>at 46. </p>
<h2>Jaguars Betting Preview</h2>
<p>In its first season under another new head coach and with the rookie starting quarterback, Jacksonville is 0-3 after losing at home to Arizona last week 31-19. The Jaguars fell behind 7-0 midway through the first quarter but used a 109-yard return of a missed Cardinals field goal for a touchdown on the last play of the first half to lead 13-7 into the locker room. Jacksonville later led 19-10 late into the third quarter but gave up the last 21 points of the game, seven on a Lawrence pick-6, to not only lose the game but piss away the cover as an eight-point home dog. </p>
<p>The Jags got out-gained by Arizona 407-361, and while they out-rushed the Cardinals 159-91, they also lost the turnover battle 4-1, resulting in at least a -13 points differential. </p>
<p>Jacksonville opened this season with a 37-21 loss at Houston, and that game wasn't even that close. The Jaguars then lost to Denver 23-13, and one of their touchdowns came on a kick-off return. Jacksonville has scored just five offensive touchdowns through its first three games of this season.</p>
<h2>Bengals Betting Preview</h2>
<p>Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 2-1 on the season after beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, 24-10. The Bengals drew first blood on a Burrow TD pass late in the first quarter, then took the lead for good on another Burrow scoring toss late in the second to lead 14-7 at the half. Cincy then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room and held on from there for its first win in the Steel City since 2015.</p>
<p>The Bengals actually got out-gained by Pittsburgh 342-268 and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split but won the turnover battle 2-1, creating a +14 points differential.</p>
<p>Cincinnati opened this season with a 27-24 overtime victory over Minnesota, then lost a challenging 20-17 game at Chicago. The Bengals are playing against a season wins over/under of 6.5, and right now, we can see them easily playing over that total and possibly contending for a playoff spot. </p>
<p><b>More Picks: <a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/nfl/carolina-panthers-vs-dallas-cowb… vs. Cowboys Pick Against the Spread 10/3/21</a></b></p>
<h2>Jaguars-Bengals Recent History </h2>
<p>These teams just met back in Week 4 of last season, a 33-25 Cincinnati win at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals, with Burrow at QB, actually trailed the Jags, quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew that day, 13-10 at the half but scored the first 17 points of the second half for the win and the cover as one-point favorites. </p>
<p>Also, that game played over a total of 50. </p>
<p><section></p>
<ul>
<li>
<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/nfl/matchup/1410641">Jags at Bengals 9/30/21 Match-up Stats</a> </span>
</li>
</ul>
<p></section></p>
<h2>NFL Betting Trends</h2>
<ul>
<li>Home teams are just 23-24 SU, 20-27 ATS in the NFL this season.</li>
<li>Favorites are 27-21 SU, 18-30 ATS in the NFL this season.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Totals Report </h2>
<p>Unders are 2-1 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.</p>
<p>Unders are 2-1 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 41 points.</p>
<p>Unders are 28-20 in the NFL this season.</p>
Jacksonville at Cincinnati Prediction 9/30/21
Burrow is miles ahead of Lawrence in the adjustment to professional football, and Cincinnati owns the better defense. Also, the Bengals beat Jacksonville last year 33-25, and they're a better team now than they were that day, while the Jags probably aren't. Finally, while we usually consider Cincinnati a candidate for a letdown following a big rivalry win on the road, Jacksonville just doesn't have enough to make that happen. We're betting the Bengals here, minus the points.
Free Pick:
Take Cincinnati -7.5
