Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets Lines - Pick ATS
Betting Odds
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The Indianapolis Colts return to action this Monday night to take on the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Kickoff for the AFC tilt is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
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Indianapolis at New York Game Overview<br />
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The Colts have had some extra time to stew over their 28-7 loss to Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving as eight-point underdogs at home. That costly loss dropped them to 5-6 straight-up (5-5-1 against the spread) and they are now a game in back of Houston for the lead in the AFC South. Indianapolis is 3-2 ATS this season when closing as a favorite and an even 2-2-1 ATS on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games.
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The big difference this time around is the return of Andrew Luck on offense. The Colts have not been all that good on offense this season, but with Luck out of the lineup against the Steelers they were downright awful. He remains the difference on this team with 2,827 yards passing and 19 touchdown throws, especially in light of a rushing attack that is 25th in the league in yards per game (95.4).
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New York finds itself basically riding out the string following a 10-win season in 2015. Last Sunday’s 22-17 loss to New England dropped its SU record to 3-8 on the year, but after covering as a 9.5-point home underdog its record ATS stands at 4-6-1. The total stayed UNDER the closing 48-point line in that game and it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of the Jets’ last seven games.
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This offense has nowhere to go but up after ranking in the bottom-third of the league in both yards per game (335.1) and points per game (17.8). Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to get the call at quarterback despite the fact that he has thrown more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (10). The Jets only bright spot has been a running game that is averaging 111.3 yards a game behind Matt Forte and Bilai Powell. Defensively, New York is 22nd in the NFL against the pass and 21st in points allowed (24.2).
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Indianapolis at New York Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Colts are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Monday night games and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a SU losing record at home. The total has gone OVER in 21 of their last 29 road games.
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The Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a SU losing record on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games played on a Monday night.
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Head-to-head in this AFC tilt, New York has a 5-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and it is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games against Indianapolis. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings.
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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
There is something missing with both of these teams this season, but the Colts still have the overall edge in a head-to-head matchup with Luck back in the lineup. Another thing in the road team’s favor is that Indianapolis is playing for a division title, while the Jets are probably playing for the head coach’s job.
I believe there is quite a bit of value in the OVER on the total line in this matchup given both team’s struggles on defense, but my “best bet” pick is to lay the 2.5 points and take Indianapolis to cover.