NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

It's not hard to picture either team suddenly shifting into pretty much any form. Russell Wilson getting on a roll is not off the table, nor is the possibility that this latest surge from San Francisco has come to the end of the line. Expecting things to play out on a predictable continuum almost seems too easy when breaking down this spot. Taking Seattle might not be as wacky as it seems to those who are really sold on the Niners this week. I still see San Francisco evening the slate with Seattle this week, getting the win and cover on Sunday.

The Bucs hold all the match-up edges in this game so I feel comfortable laying the big number.

Despite the recent poor play and casualty lists for both teams, Dallas is just the better team in this match-up. Also, it looks like New Orleans is down to its 3rd-string quarterback. Plus, we expect the Cowboys to recover from this 1-3 stretch to go on and win the NFC East while our prognosis for the Saints isn't nearly as encouraging. We'll take the Cowboys minus the points.  

It would be very understandable for one to defer to the 49ers' recent dependability in this spot over the Vikings' more explosive but far more-erratic winning formula. And for some reason, being 5-5 is more impressive for the Niners with all they've faced than it is for the Vikings, who have really underachieved until very recently. Still, with a Minnesota offense that seems to be clicking, I sense some of San Fran's shortcomings will come more to light this week, as the Vikings ride their superior weaponry to a cover at Levi's Stadium on Sunday. I'll take the Vikings.

Until we see any trend reversals from either team, the Eagles are the play in this spot.

Normally we'd consider Indianapolis a good candidate for a letdown in a spot like this, coming off a big divisional road win, but one big thing that helps fend off letdowns is a great running game and the Colts got one of those. Also, Indianapolis is 6-2 over its last eight games, and both losses came in overtime. Also, we just think Tampa is too reliant on the pass; Brady's throwing the ball 42 times a game! We like the Colts here to win outright on the money line.       

Buffalo's the better team in this match-up, and we expect a bounce-back performance, following a really lousy performance last Sunday. Also, New Orleans is seriously banged-up. So we're betting the Bills, playing on the road, where spreads tend to be friendlier.

I think the recent Bucs slide could be a little mental, with a lot of mistakes and turnovers helping things get a little ragged in the last few games. I'd expect that to get at least partially cleaned up, with some more pointed urgency being evident for this game. Tampa should be able to render the Giants a bit one-dimensional. And if looking to have an aerial slugfest, Tampa has a pronounced advantage. I see this manifesting on MNF with the Bucs cruising home with the win and cover. I'll take the Buccaneers.

We consider that Dallas loss to Denver a fluke. The Cowboys lead the NFL in total offense, and their defense is much improved over last season. Kansas City, meanwhile, is simply not the team it was the last couple of seasons. Also, Dallas is out-rushing opponents this season by 39 yards per game, while the Chiefs are getting out-rushed by four YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We like the Cowboys here to win this game outright.  

The trends suggest a low scoring game and I'm going to ride those this week with my O/U pick.

New England is coming off a 38-point victory, while Atlanta just got beat by 40 points. But the NFL can be a strange place, where what's hot one week is not the next, and vice versa, and that's the vibe we get while researching this game. The Patriots took advantage of a short-handed Cleveland team last week while Atlanta got victimized by a Dallas team prime for a rebound. Now, it's the Falcons turn. Also, we never mind betting against the public flow. We're not calling for the outright upset here, but we do like Atlanta getting the points as a home dog. 

It's a close call. Taking the points and the Niners is understandable. They're at home, the Rams are coming off by far their worst game on the season, and if that game was any indication, Jimmy Garoppolo can make this work even with a less-than-ideal cast. I'm more in the spirit of deferring to the Rams' urgency and how they'll be eager to get this back on the right track. They want to get back to the business of building toward something rather than spending this time of the season trying to get back on track. I'd suspect a lot of energy gets funneled into nipping whatever happened Sunday in the bud. I don't see this as being a trouble-free ascent, as the Rams will need to overcome something in this game. In the end, I see them getting the little bit of separation they need to get to the win and cover on the road.

Anyone who has seen Carolina in recent weeks won't find this an easy move to make. Their offense has been awful, they can't get solid QB play, and there isn't a lot of overall energy on that side of the ball. But between Murray being gimpy and some other personnel issues on Arizona and the fact that the Carolina defense is seldom truly run over, it makes this spread seem a little daunting to an Arizona team that is dealing with some things. With some production from a healthier McCaffrey, I see the Panthers vaguely hanging in there, at least to the point where they cover the spread. I'll take the Panthers in this one with the points.

Los Angeles is supposedly the up-and-coming team here, while Minnesota looks like it might be playing for a lame-duck head coach. The Chargers are also coming off a good road win while the Vikings just blew a game they could have won - for the second week in a row. Combine those two things, and we're a little surprised the line on this game isn't three points higher. But the NFL is a crazy place, where what's up one week is down the next, and vice versa, and that's the feel-ing we get looking at this game. We also like Minnesota's run game here against a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last against the run. So we like the Vikes, and they might win this game outright.

I really like the match-up advantages Dallas provides in this game and believe there will be some extra motivation following last week’s loss. I’m taking 'Boys

Baltimore is fighting for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, while Miami looks like it’s playing out the string on another lost season. And regardless of who plays QB for the Dolphins, that offensive unit stinks. Also, the Ravens are out-rushing opponents this season by 70 yards per game, while Miami is getting out-rushed by 36 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We’re betting Baltimore here, minus the points. 

Usually, an iffy Steelers team such as this wouldn’t be that appetizing as a betting choice laying a number like this. They might be on a little roll, which only serves to prove they’re better than teams who are showing some of the worst form in the whole conference. That doesn’t make them good. But despite some potential growth from Fields, it’s hard to locate sources of optimism on this Bears’ team. Whether discussing the support Fields gets around him or the fact that their defense is receding, it’s enough to make them a less-than-thrilling choice, even getting points against a super-flawed Steelers’ squad. I’ll take the Steelers.

Kansas City just is not the team it was the last couple of seasons. The Chiefs can beat teams like the Giants, Washington, and Eagles, but they didn't look good against the Titans, Bills, or Chargers. As for Green Bay, apparently, we've got a lot more faith in Love, Coach LaFleur, and the Packers running game than most. We like Green Bay plus those points here.

I'd look for the Cardinals to really go out of their way to not be one of those teams that starts fast, only to fade into the night as the rest of the season unfolds. San Fran has their own list of concerns, and falling to 3-5 in this division could be the final nail in a season where there has already been an inordinate amount of bad fortune. The win against Chicago last week was nice, but I think the Cardinals perform better here than they did in the first game, as they get out of the Bay Area with the win and the cover on Sunday.

With the expectation that Dak returns combined with a decimated Denver defense, I like the Cowboys to keep their undefeated streak (ATS) alive.