NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

The Packers are allowing only 12 ppg during their winning streak as the defense has really stepped up their game. They had 5 interceptions and harassed Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson for most of the game. Despite Rodgers’ limitations, he is making plays with regularity while Montgomery’s transformation into a RB has also been a big positive for the offense. Green Bay is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 visits to Chicago and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. They are very much in the playoff hunt and won’t overlook their biggest (although undermanned) rival in a crucial game.

What we have here is likely as a result of the apparent comeback the Ravens put together on Monday night against New England on the road. While Baltimore still lost, they Ravens trailed by 20 at one point before getting the difference to within a field goal. However, New England’s atypically poor play paved the way for Baltimore to come back and it was by no means a prime indicator of Baltimore’s faculties as a football team. There were many questionable play calls by Jim Harbaugh and as a result Baltimore beat themselves even when New England gave them every chance to actually win the game let alone come back. While the Eagles may be 1-6 ATS in their previous seven, you simply cannot trust the Ravens with points. This is a football team whose 7-6 record does not reflect the true quality of this team. Baltimore is not a good football team. While the Eagles may have since derailed in their own right, much of the public is probably staying clear by the play of their rookie quarterback. Nevertheless, the Eagles are due for a win and the Ravens will likely give the Eagles a chance at acquiring that win. The sheer volume of points here is worth targeting as there is a significant chance here that we may see the Ravens overvalued prone to fail to cover yet again by virtue of an overlay. Philadelphia is the same team that beat Atlanta on the road and Detroit at home this season and there is no reason to suspect they cannot win this one outright.

The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 visits to Paul Brown Stadium. This has become a very fierce rivalry in recent years, especially since LB Vontaze Burfict joined the Bengals. Pittsburgh has a 1-game lead in the division and host Baltimore next week. I don’t expect the Steelers to overlook this divisional foe before they face their biggest rival. Look for the Pittsburgh pass rush to have a big day and for Bell to continue his torrid pace.

From the onset, the early action on the BIlls, is almost a platitude of Cleveland’s abysmal campaign. This is assuredly an overreaction to what was witnessed last week with Cleveland being pummeled yet again. However, in spite of the Bills getting buried in the snow on their own field by Pittsburgh, this team is spotting over double-digit points and summarily the public has more trust in this situation even with enhanced juice. Very rarely do we get an opportunity to lay a team that continues to lose, take back a significant amount of points and do so at a cheaper price. Sure, Cleveland may be 0-10 ATS in their last ten matches up but the Bills are 1-7 ATS in their last eight, failing to cover in three consecutive games as well. On another note, we see here 99% of the public liking the Bills outright on the Money Line. Considering the price here and the notion it is free money, do not be surprised if the Browns crush everyone’s bankroll here and pull off their first win. We have seen a similar narrative taken shape in the Over/Under market where the Under seems to be the trendy play. Let us remind everyone that the Browns and Bills have two of the worst defenses in all of the NFL. As maligned as their offenses are, their defenses will likely provide concessions in what will likely be a shootout contrary to popular belief.

The Rams have been able to play their division rivals rather tough in recent years, but they could be in for a tough go of things this time around on the road against a Seattle team that quickly needs to get back on track in hopes of pulling off a deep run in the postseason.

Giving up nearly two touchdowns to any division opponent is never an ideal bet, but given just how bad Los Angeles has looked over the entire second half of the season, I will still lay the points and take Seattle to cover.

The current seven-point spread in this game has PUSH written all over it with New England getting the SU win by a touchdown. If it does happen to move a half point either way you may want bet accordingly. My “best bet” pick in this conference battle is the UNDER on the current 45-point total line.

I see each team’s defense really stepping up its game on Monday night to make life tough on both Flacco and Brady for all four quarters. 

Dallas will be looking to avenge its only loss of the season, but this game means far more to New York as far as the postseason picture is concerned. The Giants still have Detroit on the schedule followed by two road games in the division, so a win on Sunday night would go a long way towards securing one of two wild card spots in the NFC.

Defense was the name of the game in Week 1 in what was a hard-fought battle for all four quarters so I am going to take New York and the three points in what should be another tight matchup between these two bitter foes.

This game sets up nicely for NY. They were blown out at home last week in a lost season but still have more skilled players than the Niners have. While Petty is still learning the nuances of the pro game, he will be able to hand the ball off to Forte and RB Bilal Powell. If the running game is successful (like I think it will be) he will be put in more advantageous positions when he does have to pass the ball. San Francisco has lost 10 of their 11 games by 7+ points and 8 of their games by 12+ points. They just aren’t competitive and I like the dog to get a SU win here and salvage a little bit of their pride.

Since Thanksgiving, the stock in the Colts has risen through the ceiling. The same team that was taking back nearly ten points against the Steelers without Luck is now spotting a touchdown with him at the helm. This shows you right here how one player can affect the market perception of any team. Luck is the Colts’ franchise player but he can have a bad game just like anyone else if the Texans come with the right strategy to quell his efforts. When a team comes in off a victory on Monday Night, that same team is often a prime fade option in their follow-up. A national audience witnessed Indy’s demolition of the Jets and likely an overreaction is taking shape. When you factor in that the Texans have been struggling as of late, the propensity is even greater. Despite this being a Week 14 game, this game can be treated as a playoff match as the winner will have the inside track to the AFC South. With this being said expect the Texans to show up and try to unleash J.J Watt upon Andrew Luck to disrupt the flow of their passing game and offense. The Houston defense is far superior to New York’s and thus the 41 points we saw proliferated last Monday night may be a bit of a misnomer.

The price here is extremely enticing. After last week, Pitt at such a low price seems too good to be true. When it often feels that way, it is almost always it. So we are simply going to fade the public on this one as the fact that 95% of the money is on Pittsburgh signals something abnormal is occurring. Often we don’t see these numbers unless the book makes a terrible mistake or they know something we don’t. It is very unlikely that two weeks in a row, the books will blunder with the very same team as they left themselves vulnerable last week with the Oakland/Buffalo match. When a team gets hot they are more likely to be overvalued and even the points they spot may be far more than required. Pittsburgh has had a lot of trouble on the road both this season and historically, thus the market reflects the tendencies of the Steelers to lay an egg away from the Steel City. Let us recall what may seem like ancient history at this point to anyone that dare think Pittsburgh will walk in to this contest and have its way. This is the same Buffalo outfit that beat New England in Foxborough earlier this season. And the Bills didn’t just beat the Pats, they shut them out. There is no criteria to write off Buffalo getting a win here, let alone being competitive in this match-up.

The Texans rank 5th in pass defense allowing 208.4 yards per game, but they haven’t been as sharp in recent weeks allowing six of their last eight opponents to pass for over 230 yards and they’ve allowed QBs to complete 67.4 percent of their passes over their last five games. Last time these tgwo clubs met Houston racked up a season high 414 yards and the 26 points were only one shy of their season high total of 27. The Colts offense is in top form right now scoring 96 points over the last three games with Luck. WR Donte Moncrief has become a TD machine scoring one in each of his last five games since returning from an injury. The last game meeting resulted in 49 points nad there’s no reason to think that number can’t be matched or surpassed this week.

The Redskins are still in the playoff hunt while the Eagles are out. Washington’s offense is playing at a much higher level than Philadelphia’s (14 ppg last 3 games, all losses) and their passing game should give this defense lots of problems. They also get the edge at QB as Cousins is also playing much better than Wentz right now. The Skins have won the last four matchups in this series and with the spread only one point, I look for them to make it five in a row with a big road win this week.

While the Bengals should win this game it is hard to back a team with only 2 wins since September. It is also hard to back a team that is winless and can’t score. Therefore, I think the only play in this contest is the Under. Cincy’s defense should handle Cleveland’s offense and I don’t see the Bengals exploding for 32 points again this week. This is also a divisional and intra-game matchup and I expect it to be an intense, low-scoring affair.

The Redskins are still in the playoff hunt while the Eagles are out. Washington’s offense is playing at a much higher level than Philadelphia’s (14 ppg last 3 games, all losses) and their passing game should give this defense lots of problems. They also get the edge at QB as Cousins is also playing much better than Wentz right now. The Skins have won the last four matchups in this series and with the spread only one point, I look for them to make it five in a row with a big road win this week.

There is no doubt that Oakland remains one of the hottest teams in the league and it has been especially good on the road this season. The Chiefs continue to find ways to win games, but they are going to have their hands full this Sunday at home.

I am going to stick with the Raiders in this huge division showdown. Their AFC West Division title chances hang in the balance given that earlier loss to Kansas City so I like their chances to even the score this time around.

There is something missing with both of these teams this season, but the Colts still have the overall edge in a head-to-head matchup with Luck back in the lineup. Another thing in the road team’s favor is that Indianapolis is playing for a division title, while the Jets are probably playing for the head coach’s job.

I believe there is quite a bit of value in the OVER on the total line in this matchup given both team’s struggles on defense, but my “best bet” pick is to lay the 2.5 points and take Indianapolis to cover.

Both teams are coming off a bad loss, but the overall picture still points to two teams headed in opposite directions. While the Panthers’ downward spiral is likely to continue, Seattle has already proven itself to be a very resilient team that knows how to quickly bounce back from a bad loss.

The current spread has dipped a half point in my favor after opening at seven so there in no doubt that I am going with Seattle to cover at home on Sunday night.

Given the fact Tampa Bay has racked up three straight victories on the road, this one seems like a no-brainer to much of the public. Tampa Bay’s two most recent victories are enough alone to sell the Buccaneers as they own a victory at home against Seattle and a triumph away from Florida against the Kansas City Chiefs. Furthermore, San Diego has had a terrible time getting the running game going as they average less than 100 rushing yards per game. All these narratives are working on the psyche of the public in this one as the expectation here is Tampa Bay is underpriced and primed to roll the Bolts at home in an offensive-oriented affair. However, this perspective may be most hazardous as San Diego’s defense may show up and give this Tampa Bay a very difficult time in a defensive-oriented affair. We have seen Tampa Bay’s offense stall on numerous occasions. If Phillip Rivers is able to move the chains effectively as he has, San Diego may rout the Bucs let alone beat them and cover.

This is a huge game for both teams. The Bills are teetering on a playoff berth and a big win here could be a big step in ending the league’s longest playoff drought. Oakland is tied with New England at 9-2 atop the AFC and would love nothing better than securing a 1st-round bye into the playoffs. Oakland has won 5 in a row but play 3 of their last 4 games on the road, all against division rivals. They won’t overlook a Bills team that while unglamorous, can still get tough wins. If the Raiders defense can keep the Bills running game in check, I believe their offense can do enough to get a big win at home.

Cincinnati has won 1 game since September 29th, a 31-17 victory over winless Cleveland. Dalton is not playing well, the o-line has been in flux all year and injuries have taken 2 of their better players away. Philadelphia has lost 4 of their past 5 games but all to quality opponents. The Bengals defense has also allowed a TD on the opening drive in 6 of the past 8 games. If Wentz gets off to a quick start, the offense should be able to sustain drives and tire out a defense that has had to be on the field too long in recent weeks. I don’t expect a renaissance of the Cincinnati offense this Sunday and with the spread only 1 point, I’ll take the hungry visitor to get back on track.