NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

The betting line for this matchup opened at seven points and the early money on Jacksonville has pushed the current spread to nine points. Buffalo could be one of those teams that is just happy to be here, but I do not see the Jaguars covering that kind of spread even if that was the case with the Bills. I think these heavy road underdogs could actually be primed to pull off the SU upset against a Jaguars’ team a that has not looked all that good over the past two weeks. I am definitely taking the generous nine-point spread with Buffalo in great position to cover.

Both teams have things going for them in this matchup. Atlanta made the Super Bowl last year and has a huge edge in playoff experience. Their slow start (4-4) also meant they had to work very hard in the second half just to make the playoffs (6-2 in 2nd half). They should be able to run the ball and that will greatly aid the passing game where Ryan hasn’t been his best this campaign. LA became the first team in the expansion era to go from last to first in scoring in one year. However, they did feast on a lot of the weak sisters in the league and were 2-2 SU vs. playoff teams. Gurley is amongst the league’s best weapons right now and it will take a lot from the Falcons defense to contain him. In the end, I’m going to side with the dog in this one. They’re getting points, have the edge in experience and have the running game to give this defense trouble. Their team speed on defense should also come into play.

Momentum coming into the playoffs is a big factor in the NFL and the clear edge in this category when it comes to this matchup goes to Kansas City. The Titans did have to win to get in, but this was just their third SU victory over their final seven games. The Chiefs appear to have regained the form that led to such a fast start and their recent playoff experience only adds value to their chances to win and cover the current seven-point spread.

Kansas City can’t improve their playoff seeding but I don’t see them rolling over in this one. Smith may not play the whole game but the Chiefs still have plenty of weapons to get the job done against a demoralized opponent. The Broncos suffered through an 8-game losing streak before 2 wins against poor opponents (NYJ, IND) missing their starting QBs but crashed against a mediocre and injury-riddled Redskins squad. This is a rivalry game but I see KC coming out and trying to keep their winning streak going.

The first matchup totaled 80 points and Rams games have reached 46+ points in their last 5 outings. The Niners games have reached that total in the last 2 weeks as well. Garoppolo has invigorated the offense and the team as a whole. On the heels of a 4-game winning streak, they will want to end the year on another win. LA is still playing for seeding position and should play all of their offensive stars. I see this game approaching 50 points and feel the Over is the way to go in this one.

The Jaguars are not playing for postseason position in this game, but they are playing to avoid a third meeting this season against a pesky division foe has played tough at home in the past. The fact that they are getting six points on the road only adds value to their chance to, at the very least, cover in this game. The Titans are not playing their best ball at the right time of the year in what would have to be considered an epic collapse to miss the postseason altogether.

Both teams need this game when it comes to their postseason plans so look for another tight battle that will not be decided until sometime in the fourth quarter or possibly beyond. My lean in this one is towards Atlanta given its recent success against the Panthers on its home field. I see that trend holding true this time around as well with the Falcons coming away with the win both SU and ATS.

Despite getting the No.1 seed last week, I expect Foles to play a lot in this game as he needs more reps as the playoffs near. TE Zach Ertz has had a Pro Bowl year and WR Alshon Jeffery has had a decent first season with the club. However, I feel the Cowboys can pressure Foles into quick throws and maybe force a TO or two. Elliott is fresh and while Dallas’ playoff hopes are extinguished, they’ll want to finish the year with a winning record. The number seems to be a little low as the Eagles have topped this number in 12 of their 14 games in 2017. I think Dallas will bounce back with a solid game after a disappointing effort last Sunday and Elliott’s presence should open up the passing game.

This Week 17 matchup looked great on paper earlier in the season, but much like last year’s meeting in the season finale when Dallas had already clinched the top seed in the NFC, there is nothing on the line for either team as far as this year’s postseason picture. That is why I am going with the Cowboys both SU and ATS this Sunday. They are still playing for pride while the Eagles are playing to keep their players as healthy as possible heading into the postseason.

This Week 17 matchup looked great on paper earlier in the season, but much like last year’s meeting in the season finale when Dallas had already clinched the top seed in the NFC, there is nothing on the line for either team as far as this year’s postseason picture. That is why I am going with the Cowboys both SU and ATS this Sunday. They are still playing for pride while the Eagles are playing to keep their players as healthy as possible heading into the postseason.

Take the Cowboys

The Eagles have been winning games lately by simply outscoring the other team and there is a good chance that this will be the case again on Monday night. The Raiders should have some life left in them playing in prime time on Christmas and while I do not expect to see Oakland come away with a SU win, it should be able to put enough points on the board to keep things competitive for all four quarters. My ‘best bet’ pick in this matchup is the OVER on the current 47-point total line.

This is an elimination game for both teams. Dallas is trending up and gets their best player back and it isn’t from an injury. The Seahawks poise has disappeared over the past 2 weeks and while Wilson has put in a superhuman effort this year, his teammates haven’t. I look for the Cowboys to get a big win this week and set up a huge showdown with Philadelphia next week.

Both of these teams need a win on Sunday to stay in the NFC playoff race, but right now Dallas is in a much better position to get one given its play over last three weeks as compared to Seattle’s form in its last two games. The Seahawks are just too banged up on defense to slow the Cowboys down, especially with Elliott back in the lineup so I am going to lay the points and take the home team both SU and ATS.

Los Angeles lost a big game last week and has to travel cross country for this contest. They are still in the playoff hunt and I expect a big performance from them against a lesser opponent. Rivers gives LA a huge edge over Petty and the defense’s ability to rush the passer will also have a big impact on the game. The line is a converted TD but I think LA will get an early lead and force NY to pass, not a winning strategy for the Jets this week.

The Chiefs came up big last week in a key game knocking off the Chargers 30-13, but I feel that the Chargers lost the game rather than the Chiefs winning it themselves. Los Angeles was trailing KC by just four in third before turning the ball over in their next and last four drives.  The Chiefs had just two wins in their previous eight games prior to the Week 15 win and should not be favored by this much over anyone. The Dolphins have played decent run defense at times this season and a repeat of that gets them the money here.

The last team to shutout New England in Foxboro was the Buffalo Bills. You can be that this narrative will be a trinket that the Bills use for motivation this weekend in what is a game that they need to win. Whilst Buffalo’s playoff hopes remain afloat with a loss, a win gives them breathing room and you know they would love to have that with their season wrapping up at arch rival Miami. The bottom line is this, whenever you get New England at home you will pay to back the Pats. Takers have drank some sour juice several times this season when the Pats have hosted as a significant favorite. In fact, when the Patriots have been spotting eight points or more at Gillette Stadium, they are 1-3 ATS and lost two of those games outright. Undoubtedly New England is locked in and likely won’t let this game get away from them but don’t expect Buffalo to make it easy with what is at stake for them. Take the points.

Bengals HC Marvin Lewis won’t be back next year and the players have mostly packed it in. The Lions need some help but are still alive for a playoff berth. They are also 5-2 SU on the road in 2017, their most road wins in a season in many years. Stafford has played well despite the missing running game and I think he and the pass defense are enough to get another road win and keep their playoff hopes alive.

I like the Falcons here. They’re healthy for the most part and have been playing well, They’ve lost just two games of their last seven and both came against superior defensive clubs in Carolina and Minnesota. The Saints are playing better on that side of the ball, but can’t be considered in the same league as those two teams. Atlanta won the earlier match-up and the last three and should be at the least able to keep this game close enough to get the point spread cover.

Minnesota has its sights set on home-field advantage right through Super Bowl LII with the title game coming to town in early February. The Packers will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and even playing for pride will be hard to muster in this heated NFC North rivalry. Without Rodgers under center on Saturday night, things could get ugly fast in what should be a lopsided victory for the most complete team in this conference. Laying nine points on the road in a division game always comes with a higher level of risk, but I am still going with the Vikings both SU and ATS on Saturday night as my ‘best bet’ pick.

For Baltimore, they “need” this game to continue onto the playoffs. This sense of motivation will also encourage takers to back Baltimore because they know what they are getting. However, the market is also likely inflicting a premium upon takers here because of this juxtaposition. Chances are the number here is inflated. Under any circumstance, this line would be a hard cover for any NFL team. Don’t get trapped paying extra points due to one time being incentivized.

This game opened with Atlanta favored by six points and that betting line has held firm as the week has worn on. I still see that spread widening a bit as we get closer to kickoff given the importance of this game to the Falcons’ postseason plans. Given what is on the line along with the current form between these two division rivals, I would have to believe that Atlanta wins this game by at least seven points.