NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

The Colts continue to play hard each week with Luck back at the helm, and they should be able to keep this game closer than the current 10-point spread. New England needed to make a statement against Miami in a crucial division game, but it could struggle to dial up that same intensity this week.

I have New England winning this game SU, but I will take my chances on another solid showing by the Colts to cover.

Betting against a team as hot as Kansas City does not make all that much sense, but there has to be some concern with a defense that has allowed an average of 30.7 points in those first three wins. The recent betting trends work against Denver in this matchup, but the Broncos know just how important a victory on Monday night would be in the process of turning things around.

My lean is actually towards the Broncos on Monday night with the five points, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the OVER 55.5 on the current total line.

Games between these teams tend to be close, hard-fought battles that do not get decided until late in the game. The gap in talent between these two familiar foes does not appear to be as wide as it has been over the past few seasons, which could easily make this a three-point game either way.

I do not see Baltimore slowing down the Steelers all that much on offense, but the Ravens should be able to put some points on the board against a very porous Pittsburgh defense. That sets the stage for a play on the OVER against a total line of 51 points.

In the times we have seen Josh Allen take the field in both the pre-season and last week, he has emerged as an impact player. As long as Allen is on the field, the Bills are a different team, and he is a dangerous guy to give a touchdown plus a field goal to. Expect Buffalo to menace Green Bay this week in what will likely be an offensive-oriented affair.

The Jets have a penchant for playing up to the level of elite teams. It’s what they are known for. New York loses games they should win and wins games they should lose. This is one of the latter scenarios and an upset perhaps is not out of the realm of possibility. Be that as it may, there is plenty of equity in taking the points. The Jets cover in another defensive-oriented game.

Both teams have done an outstanding job against the pass using the yards per game metric Detroit ranked leading the league and Dallas in fourth spot. That said on paper this will be the biggest test for the Cowboys’ pass defense facing the number 8th aerial attack of the Lions. That’s the opposite scenario the Lions have facing the 31st ranked Dallas pass offense. Some bettors may be worried about the Detroit run defense that has been gouged for a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, but that is skewed by a few big runs. Ezekiel Elliot indeed can manufacture some big runs, but with the limited threat from the passing game, I expect the Lions to have the safeties up to help. Detroit has too much offense for the Cowboys.

New England’s primetime loss was seen by all and that makes the public reluctant to get on board with the Patriots here this week, especially against a team that is undefeated. The points seem quite appetizing here with the Dolphins, but it is assuredly fool's gold. Bill Belichick is better than anyone that coaching up his teams when the road gets bumpy. New England will respond to their last two losses with fury and take it out on the Dolphins. Swallow the points.

The Vikings are a far better team than the one that took the field at home last Sunday, but a lopsided loss to possibly the worst team in the league cannot be overlooked. Putting aside just how well the Rams have played in the first three weeks, it is hard to see how Minnesota can correct its issues in a short week against the NFC’s top team.

With the half-point on the current spread favoring the home team, I am going to lay the 6.5 points and take Los Angeles both SU and ATS in Thursday night's contest.

Conventional wisdom dictates that Pittsburgh returns to form on Monday night and Tampa Bay returns to earth. I think it will be a bit of both in a game that is still too close to call. The Steelers continue to add off-field distractions to their plate, while the Buccaneers have built up quite a bit of momentum heading in this prime-time tilt.

Each team has shown the ability to put points on the board, and I believe that continues to be the case in a game that goes OVER the 53.5-point total line.

New England has been faced with some issues early in the season both on and off the field, but this is still one of the premier teams in the NFL with a solid history of bouncing back strong following a bad loss. The Lions are off to a rough start and it is hard to see them turn things around on short notice against a quality opponent.

The Patriots know how to shine bright in prime-time games and the current half point on the spread in New England’s favor make the road team my ‘best bet’ pick to win and cover Sunday night.

Arizona will enter this contest with nothing to lose and thus they are all the more dangerous as we can expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Bears. There may be an upset on the horizon here as the Bears may come in flat taking this Arizona bunch lightly. Combining with that a battle against the elements, the Cards go ahead and generate a cover.

Overall, 38.5 is not a conducive number for a cover with such heavy lumber like this. But that is beside the point. Buffalo’s offense looked far better against Los Angeles than it did against Baltimore with Shady McCoy back in the fold. The Bills running back can change games and in doing so, expect him to empower the Bills to come in at least under this number.

When the line opened, I considered playing the Jaguars -6.5, but the consensus line of -10 is way too much for me to feel comfortable laying. Jacksonville I coming off an emotional win over New England and could come up flat in this game. That doesn’t mean that I’m backing the Titans getting the double-digit point spread line. Marcus Mariota is apparently available for this game, but Gabbert is getting the start, and for anyone who hasn't read my analysis in the past, I place him in the last spot in rankings for experienced backups. His numbers this season certainly don't change my opinion with him hitting under 57.1% of his passes this season and to make matters worse the Titans are forced to go with a makeshift offensive line today.

The figure on the board here is generally an underdog-friendly number. The number would curate the illusion of an easy cover if the Texans were to win by a touchdown. However, Houston won’t be able to do such a thing. The Giants will come with a revamped strategy and have a coming out party at the expense of the Texans. Don’t be shocked if the Giants win this one outright.

The Packers secondary was exploited for 412 yards last week, and I expect much more of the same this week against the Redskins. Washington has passed the ball well this season with Alex Smith completing 71% of his attempts with no INTs. He’ll be facing the beat up secondary of the Packers who will be without the services of starting CB Kevin King and may be without SS Josh Jones and backup CB Davon House. Green Bay is fortunate to be undefeated this season with a late comeback against the Bears at home to escape with a win and a poor performance by the Vikings kicker to salvage a tie last week, but I believe the luck runs this week in their first road start.

The one exciting thing about this matchup is that Cleveland is actually favored to get the SU victory it has been looking for in quite some time unless this game ends up as a tie in overtime. The Jets appeared to take a step backward after the big upset in Detroit, while the Browns have continued to stay competitive in all nine quarters they have played this season.

I am going to lay the three points and go with Cleveland at home both SU and ATS with a few of its field goals going through the uprights this time around. As a possible parlay, I also have the total staying UNDER 39 points on Thursday night.