NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Tampa Bay looks like it's beginning to click with Brady and his bunch offensively, and the Bucs' defense ranks No. 3 in the League. Also, Tampa just hung one on Las Vegas last week, and the Raiders are better than the Giants. New York's played some close games lately, but those came against their fellow incompetents in the NFC East, Philly, Washington, and Dallas. Plus, the G-Men are banged up. We'll give the points here with the Buccaneers.    

When a team is fancied in some circles as a Super Bowl candidate, and they end up bottomed-out after seven games, there's a certain deflation level that you won't see with other teams who just stink, knew they stink, continue to stink, and are more or less at terms with it. Dallas does have some horses, and in their heads, they could figure, "Hey, why the long faces? We're still in this thing!" But what changed from last week when Dallas put forth one of their most-inept performances in years? Granted, things aren't always as bad as they look at their worst, and Philadelphia is far from solid, particularly as a betting favorite, but I'm more inclined to back the Eagles in this one.

I’ll take the better offense at home with the hopes Tagovailoa lives up to the expectations.

Los Angeles got out-played by San Francisco last week, but we expect a bounce-back effort this week. Meanwhile, Chicago won a game on the East Coast last week but now heads out to the opposite coast for this one. Also, while the Rams are out-rushing opponents by 26 yards per game this season, the Bears are getting out-rushed by 23 YPG. We'll play LA for our free pick for Monday night, minus the points.  

It's understandable why the Raiders would be appealing in this spot, getting points in a foreign road-spot for Tampa, while rested after a pretty thorough win over the defending champs. Maybe I just smell a rat and think that on a very basic level, the Raiders haven't been able to equal Tampa's rate of improvement on both sides of the ball. And if Tampa's recent run and this setting somehow render them a bit deflated, it's going to be an uphill battle. I just don't sense that come down this week. I'll take Tampa.

Murray gets most of the ink surrounding Arizona, but the Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the league in yardage, holding foes to 347 yards per game, and fifth in scoring, allowing only 20 points per game. Meanwhile, Dallas is working with its back-up QB, and its defense made the Giants look good last week. We'll take Arizona here, plus the point.

With the Rams' pass-rush humming along nicely after an 8-sack game last week, I see the San Francisco offensive line really being up against it, which doesn't offer a lot of promise for the wayward Garoppolo or whoever else ends behind center. And with how well the LA secondary is playing, albeit against some substandard offenses, it's hard to envision this being the week for a huge San Fran offensive about-face. I see the Rams offense taking it to the ravaged Frisco “D,” enough to get out of the Bay Area with a win and cover on Sunday night. I'm taking the Rams.

If I had any confidence the Bengals could rebound in a strong way, I would likely back the Bengals in this spot, getting nearly double-digit points against a limited Colts offense. However, I don't see many paths to the Bengals rebounding here. Cincinnati's offensive line is horrible. They have failed to open holes for running back Joe Mixon, and they have been awful in pass protection as well. Both of these facets are strengths for the Colts defense, and I expect this to be another somber afternoon for Bengals fans. For that reason, I would favor the Colts and the points if I had to pick the side. However, I believe the best value for both struggling offenses is the under 45.5 against the total. Even if Cincinnati performs better than expected, there are several paths to keep this game under the listed total, which is the best probable play for this match-up.

Both these teams are banged up, which makes 7 points look like more than usual. New Orleans doesn't quite look like the team that won 13 games last season; they might miss Thomas. The Chargers, meanwhile, played both the Chiefs and Bucs tough and could have won both those games. Also,  Herbert looks like he can play at this level. We'll take San Diego and the points here.

In all honesty, this looms as a potentially troublesome spot for Seattle. They could be a little down, and the Vikings could play well, which would make covering this number a major uphill battle. It's a spot where bettors can outsmart themselves. My mind keeps taking me to the Seattle offense and how well they're operating, going against a Minnesota defense that has been far from bankable. I see a shootout of sorts, with Seattle keeping enough of a distance on Minnesota to win and cover the spread. I'm taking Seattle.

I don't normally like betting on bad teams, but the Redskins provide a lot of value in this match-up with the points they are receiving. I would not be surprised if Washington challenges for the upset, so I will back them with confidence this week.

Most signs point toward Green Bay here; the Packers are averaging 41 points per game, they're running the ball well, and while they're allowing 28 PPG, part of that has been situational. Meanwhile, Atlanta's blown big leads the last two weeks. However, the Falcons were also good enough to build those big leads in the first place. Green Bay is ranked in the top three in most NFL power rankings, Atlanta in the 20s, but realistically these teams are closer than that. They might not win this game outright, but we like the Falcons and the points here.

The combination of the 49ers’ injury problems and the Eagles’ urgency to get in the win-column before their season officially capsizes could make Philly an appeal underdog choice this week after they flopped three weeks in a row as the favorite. You can never completely dismiss the heart of a champion, and it could surface here. At some point, however, you either have the horses on offense, or you don't. And it's going to take a special spot to forecast success for the Eagles' offense, as I don’t see it surfacing this week. I’ll lay the number on the 49ers.

Baltimore is 21-3 with Lamar Jackson starting at QB, but 0-2 against Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs are coming off a less-than-wonderful performance last week against the Chargers, but we expect better this week. And we're getting three and a hook? We'll take KC and the points.

I think the Green Bay "D" is better than they've shown in weeks one and two, where the "D" did well when it mattered. Losing Michael Thomas might not be an easy loss for the Saints to camouflage, as he was a valuable tool on this offense in many ways, and without him, the whole dynamic changes. While gifted with a back in Kamara who can do a lot of damage aerially and a good tight end in Jared Cook, they're a little strapped for wide receiver talent with Thomas out of the mix. Green Bay could be in a similar predicament if Adams isn't ready to go. I still see a tight game where taking the points seems like a good idea. I'm taking the Packers.</p>

I believe Washington is definitely capable of the upset in this game and just needs a few big plays on offense to make it happen. I would not be surprised to see Washington's defense come up big similar to their Week 1 efforts against Philadelphia. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games going back to 2019, and I think that streak continues.

The Saints produced less than 300 yards of total offense last week, and now they're without Thomas. So those 34 points they scored are a bit misleading. Meanwhile, the Raiders are now in their third season under Gruden. In his first go-around as head coach of this franchise, starting back in 1998, the Raiders played 16-16 through his first two seasons, then jumped to 12-4 and made the AFC championship game in his third. We're not saying they'll win 12 games this season, but we won't be all that surprised if they win 9-10. With that in mind, we'll take Vegas and points for our free NFL pick for Monday night.

Seattle's defense might be porous, but I'm not sure New England can take full advantage, at least not aerially. I see a coming down to earth for the Patriots this week in this road-spot, and it's worth mentioning they are the most depleted team in terms of coronavirus-related opt-outs, with their O-line and the "D" most hit. The Patriots could be very competitive in what should still be a hard-fought game, but I see the far greater spark on the Seattle offense playing the dominant role in this game. I'm taking Seattle.</p>

It is always a challenge finding perceived value in the Week 1 lines, but even more so this season with not even some preseason action to analyze. I'm going to go with the trend in this series, which has seen seven or fewer points decide the last three games. The weather forecast is calling for a chance of rain and winds up to 15 MPH, so the run game should play a big part in today's game. No question the Bills had the better rushing game last season but the Jets offensive line has been retooled, and I still have faith in RB L.Bell returning to form. I expect another close match taking the points as the way to bet this.