Detroit Lions vs Kanas City Chiefs Pick ATS

The Chiefs begin chase of back-to-back Super Bowl championships when they open this new NFL betting season against the Lions Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City won its second Lombardi Trophy of the Reid-Mahomes era last year, and two is great. But three is a dynasty. Detroit, meanwhile, for the first time in a long time, begins a season with heightened expectations. Which can be difficult to play up to. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City as a seven-point home favorite over Detroit, with an over/under of right around 54, the highest on the board. Early betting action then shaved that spread down to 6.5.

Lions-Chiefs NFL Betting Preview

Detroit is coming off its first winning season since 2017, going 9-8 last year. And while the Lions missed the playoffs they had the great pleasure of keeping Green Bay from doing so. Detroit started just 1-6 last season, with close losses to Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle and Miami. But the worm turned for the Lions with a home victory over the Packers, the beginning of an 8-2 finish, capped by that big win in the season finale at Lambeau Field. Now, the trick for Detroit this season is to build upon that great finish and make the playoffs. The Lions ranked 4th in the League in total offense last year, averaging 380 yards per game, and 11th in rushing at 128 YPG. But on the other side of the ball Detroit ranked dead last in total defense, giving up 392 YPG, and 29th against the run at 129 YPG. So while the Lions have reason for optimism they’d better fix that defense. After jumping from three victories to nine last year Detroit is playing against a wins over/under this season of 9.5. Kansas City, as we recall, won the Super Bowl last season. The Chiefs started 4-2 last year, with a puzzling loss to the Colts, then finished 10-1, with wins over the 49ers, Jaguars, Chargers and Seahawks, the only loss coming against Cincinnati. The top-seeded Chiefs then fended off the Jags and Bengals to win the AFC for the third time in the last four seasons. Kansas City then rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit in the Super Bowl against Philadelphia to win 38-35. Now, the trick is to stay healthy and motivated enough to do it all again. The Chiefs ranked No 1 in the League in total offense last year at 414 YPG but only 20th in rushing at 116 YPG. Meanwhile, KC ranked a respectable 11th in defense at 328 YPG and 8th against the run, holding foes to 107 YPG on the ground. Big news for the moment out of Chiefs camp is the holdout by DT Chris Jones. And his absence Thursday night will likely be noticeable. After averaging 13 wins over the last five seasons Kansas City is playing against an O/U this season of 11.5.

Lions-Chiefs Recent History

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 34-30 Kansas City win. But that’s a coach and a quarterback ago for Detroit.

NFL Betting Trends

• The Lions played 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS on the road last season.
• The Lions played 3-1 ATS last season as dogs of six or more points.
• The Chiefs played 7-1 SU but only 1-6-1 ATS at home last season.
• Over the last 15 NFL seasons the defending Super Bowl champions are 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS in Week 1.

Totals Report

The overs played 10-7 in Lions games last season, which averaged a healthy 52 total points. The unders played 9-8 in Chiefs games last season, which averaged 51 points.